Global biodiversity change in the age of the semiconductor: a past, a present, a future
Life on Earth is experiencing a rapid period of change. Human activities such as land-use, climate change, and over-exploitation are causing a significant restructuring of biodiversity worldwide, likely on the scale of a mass extinction. In parallel, the semiconductive properties of silicon and the scalability of the transistor have led to a revolution in computing, ushering in a new age of scientific progress. This computer revolution has enabled new tools and ways of thinking in ecology, leading to a significant development in our understanding of ecosystems and global biodiversity change. In this talk, I will describe four strands of my own work on global biodiversity change, each enabled as the scope of what’s possible with a digital computer continues to grow. I will start with the development of R Shiny apps for processing data for the trade in wildlife, and then come to the present, showing how large multi-modal models represent a step-change for the synthesis of evidence in ecology and conservation. I will then look to the future, describing that combining distinct forms of foundational AI—particularly earth-system models and generative agent-based simulation—may unlock new forms of virtual ecology and the simulation of ecosystems in digital space.