Speaker: Thomas Aubry (Oxford)
Title: Modelling explosive volcanic eruptions from proximal hazards to global climate disruption
Abstract: Explosive volcanic eruptions have critical impacts on our environment and societies including local-regional scale devastation from pyroclastic flows and tephra fallout, regional-continental scale air pollution and airspace shutdown, and global-scale cooling of Earth’s surface. I will give an overview of my group research and how it contributes to understanding and managing these impacts, focusing on climate aspects. First, I will discuss how volcanic plume modelling informed by laboratory experiments and observational databases constrain the height at which volcanic columns inject ash and gas into the atmosphere. Second, I will discuss how numerical models ranging from reduced-complexity models to full-blown Earth System Models with interactive stratospheric aerosols can help us constrain the radiative forcing and climatic impacts of volcanic eruptions. Using ice-core, geological and satellite records, I will apply these models to discuss volcanic impacts on climate from 8,000 BC to 2100. Last, I will bring together volcanic plume, aerosol and climate modelling to interrogate how ongoing climate change driven by anthropogenic activities will affect the life cycle of volcanic stratospheric aerosols, and whether we should expect more or less volcanic cooling as Earth warms.