External Speaker – Prof. Anthony Yeates from Applied Mathematics – Durham University
Title – Rogue active regions and solar cycle predictability
Abstract
In the Babcock-Leighton framework, cycle-to-cycle amplitude variations are now believed to arise from fluctuations in the active-region emergence process. I will outline how we can quantify the impact of any individual active region on the solar cycle, using surface flux transport modelling. This has led to the idea of “rogue active regions” and the possibility that they could put fundamental limits on solar cycle predictability.