The new UKCP18 scenarios are designed to help inform the management of future risks from climate variability and change. UKCP18, produced by the Met Office, Defra and the Environment Agency, provides new probabilistic estimates of the ranges of future climate change that are projected for UK land areas for a number of different potential future emission scenarios.
A new set of global climate model projections provide plausible storylines of future climate, running to the end of the 21st century. A subset of the global projections has been downscaled to the finer scale of 12km over the UK and Europe. Later, the 12km simulations will be supplemented with simulations from a new convective permitting model at 2.2km. Updated sea level projections have been produced for time-average changes and changes in water level extremes, including storm surges and waves.
There has been significant user engagement with UKCP18 from the start of its development; including tailoring the guidance that accompanies the projections so they better match user needs, and testing the knowledge and data delivery systems. Users have also produced demonstration studies of how they aim to use UKCP18 since its launch in November 2018
This meeting will explore how the UKCP18 climate tools were produced, including their strengths and limitations. It will showcase examples of how users are starting to exploit UKCP18 results and consider their plans for use ahead of the next UK climate change risk assessment. It will also consider the need and opportunity for alternative approaches to generating decisions–relevant climate projections.
Please register for the event on the RMetS website.
This meeting is part of the Royal Meteorological Society Meetings programme, open to all, from expert to enthusiast, for topical discussions on the latest advances in weather and climate.
Twitter: #RMetSMeet | @Grantham_IC | @MetOffice_Sci
Meeting schedule programme
14.00 Welcome
- Prof Liz Bentley FRMetS, Royal Meteorological Society
14.05 Introduction to climate services: Projections
- Prof Sir Brian Hoskins FRMetS, University of Reading and Grantham Institute
14.25 What do policymakers need from climate projections?
- Baroness Brown (Julia King), Chair of Adaptation Committee of Committee on Climate Change
14.50 New UK Climate projections data: What is UKCP18?
- Prof Jason Lowe, Met Office Hadley Centre and UKCP18 Project team
15.15 What does UKCP18 say about land and marine projections?
- James Murphy, Met Office Hadley Centre and UKCP18 Project team
- Dr Matt Palmer, Met Office Hadley Centre and UKCP18 Project team
15.40 Q & A
16.00 UKCP18 demo projects poster session and refreshment break
16.25 Comparing different approaches for tackling climate risk
- Dr Fiona Harrison, Defra (Chair)
- Prof Suraje Dessai, University of Leeds
- Prof Jason Lowe, Met Office
- Liz Parkes, Environment Agency
- Prof Nick Pidgeon, Cardiff University
17.15 What does UKCP18 mean to the practitioner and academic community
- Dr Geoff Darch, Anglian Water
- Dr Ella Howes, CEFAS
- Dr Mike Morecroft, Natural England
17.50 Meeting summary
- Prof Sir Brian Hoskins FRMetS, University of Reading and Grantham Institute
18.00 UKCP18 demo projects poster session and drinks reception
Poster session programme
- Assessing climate change risk in Yorkshire [PDF] – Dr Ben Rabb, University of Leeds
- Coastal cliff recession under climate change [PDF] – Dr Mike Walkden, WSP
- Future surface water flood hazard risk [PDF] – Dr Fiona McLay, SEPA
- Thermal performance of buildings [PDF] – Dr Anastasia Mylona, CIBSE
- Water resources and drought planning [PDF] – Chris Counsell, HR Wallingford