In this section
ICEPT staff and PhD students publish widely in a range of academic journals, policy reports and technical papers.
@article{Tan:2026:10.1016/j.rset.2026.100147,
author = {Tan, N and Kiley, F and Zilliacus, J and Dalkmann, H and Howells, M and Harrison, J and Foster, V},
doi = {10.1016/j.rset.2026.100147},
journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition},
title = {Supporting Vietnam’s net-zero transport policies through demand and emissions modelling},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2026.100147},
volume = {9},
year = {2026}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - Transport is often overlooked in energy planning, and this is the case in Vietnam. Yet the transport sector is rapidly growing and is therefore a vital part of the country’s energy transition. This study adopts an evidence-based policymaking approach, using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) to project transport activity, energy demand, and emissions to 2050 in support of Vietnam’s net-zero commitment. It provides the first comprehensive, scenario-based assessment of Vietnam’s transport sector using national data and policy assumptions, offering a quantitative foundation for integrating transport into energy planning and facilitating informed stakeholder dialogue. By modelling scenarios that combine net-zero pathways with avoid-shift-improve (ASI) measures and conducting sensitivity analyses on population and GDP projections, the study develops new insights for Vietnam’s transport sector. Results show that net-zero can reduce energy demand by nearly 60% in passenger transport and 19% in freight, compared to 2024 values. Additionally, ASI measures can further lower these values by 19% and 41%, respectively. In terms of transport activity, ASI measures can reduce passenger activity by 50 billion passenger-km and freight by 115 billion tonne-km in 2050, compared to a reference case. Uncertainty in population growth has a minor impact on transport activity and emissions, due to the narrow range of projected population outcomes. In contrast, uncertainty in GDP growth has a much stronger influence, reflecting the wider range of economic projections. Modelling suggests that this variation significantly affects freight activity levels, cumulative emissions, and the timing of the peak emissions.
AU - Tan,N
AU - Kiley,F
AU - Zilliacus,J
AU - Dalkmann,H
AU - Howells,M
AU - Harrison,J
AU - Foster,V
DO - 10.1016/j.rset.2026.100147
PY - 2026///
TI - Supporting Vietnam’s net-zero transport policies through demand and emissions modelling
T2 - Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2026.100147
VL - 9
ER -