Respiratory Infections Surveillance and Analytics

• University of Oxford Lead: Prof Simon de Lusignan
• UKHSA Lead: Dr Jamie Lopez-Bernal
• Imperial College Deputy Lead: Dr Marc Baguelin
• UKHSA Deputy Lead: Dr Meera Chand

Overview

To tackle respiratory infections effectively, we need to understand who is affected, how viruses spread, and how severe they are. This theme focuses on using real-time data to track respiratory viruses and spot trends early, so that public health responses can be better targeted.

We are developing new methods to improve how data is collected, analysed and used. By linking healthcare records, laboratory results, and social factors like deprivation or migration status, we aim to identify patterns that are often missed. This helps ensure no group is left behind when planning healthcare strategies.

We’re also building analytical tools to estimate how severe new variants are as they emerge, and to model how vaccines and treatments are working in real life.

Key projects:

• Bayesian Models for Real-Time Severity Estimation

We are building advanced statistical models to estimate the severity of circulating and emerging respiratory viruses. These models will help detect early signals of pressure on health services and highlight disproportionate impacts on specific groups.

• Integrated Transmission Modelling

This modelling links virological data, vaccine coverage, healthcare use, and behavioural information to simulate how respiratory viruses spread. These simulations help assess the likely impact of different public health strategies.

• Improving Data Equity

We are addressing long-standing gaps in surveillance data, especially around ethnicity, migration, and deprivation. By linking datasets across care settings and incorporating social risk factors into models, we aim to improve the visibility of underserved populations.

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How is this theme relevant to UKHSA objectives?

Our work will support the UKHSA’s goal of real-time situational awareness and smarter targeting of resources. The tools we are developing will help the UKHSA respond quickly to new threats, track the effectiveness of interventions, and reduce health inequalities in surveillance and response.