Leading sports economist warns that abolishing match draws could seriously harm the health of English football on TV

Imperial College's Tanaka Business School and Initiative Sports Futures today warned that a reported Football League proposal to abolish the draw could seriously damage the appeal of English football on TV. New research

The current debate over the new system, which will effectively guarantee every match has a winner, centres around the negative impact of match draws on the appeal of English football, including on TV viewing.  Fans are more likely to switch off during the match when the score is level, and particularly when it is nil-nil.

Uncertainty about the outcome of a match is desirable.  The drama and tension that feeds interest and keeps the viewer in front of the screen until the final score is a positive for football on TV, both for the sport in general as well as the impact it has on the broadcaster and sports governing bodies' revenue from rights, advertisers and sponsors.

Examining the size of TV audiences minute-by-minute as a match progresses, Initiative Sports Futures and Tanaka Business School found that as the expected final score becomes more certain, TV viewers lose interest and switch off or turn over to watch something else.  The research shows a direct correlation between the number of TV viewers and the final score they anticipate as a match progresses.

However, while draws are undesirable from a TV viewing perspective, the proposed policy change may have the effect of making draws more, not less, likely in 90 minutes.  As Professor Stefan Szymanski of Tanaka Business School, one of the joint authors of the report says: "Abolishing draws might make teams more cautious during normal time, a phenomenon that is recognised in international competitions such as the FIFA World Cup when many teams' strategy seems to be to play for a penalty shoot-out."

The research also has implications for other recently discussed policy changes, focusing on redistributing resources between rich and poorer clubs.  Steps to equalise teams' finances, for example with the introduction of salary caps, may also lead to draws becoming more likely.  Creating more evenly balanced teams could lead to an increase in the number of games ending in tedious stalemate, as a 0-0 draw.

Kevin Alavy of Initiative Sports Futures, co-author, warns: "Major policy changes of this type have the potential to make a significant impact on viewing.  Given the current unrivalled global appeal of English football, the huge financial returns for sponsors and broadcasters are intrinsically affected by the structure of the game."

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For further information, please contact:

Eoin Bedford
Tanaka Business School
T:  +44 (0) 20 7594 9154
E:  e.bedford@imperial.ac.uk

Note to editors:

1. The research was conducted using data on minute-by-minute viewing figures for 228 Premier League games broadcast between 2002 and 2005.

Further details of the full econometric paper, entitled "On the edge of your seat: demand for football on television and the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis" is available from Eoin Bedford, contact details above.

2. Imperial College's Tanaka Business School is a world-class provider of business education and research, focusing primarily on innovation and entrepreneurship, finance and healthcare management. The School offers full-time and executive MBAs, Master's programmes in Finance, Risk Management, International Health Management, Actuarial Finance and Management; and a Doctoral programme.
Website: www.imperial.ac.uk/tanaka
3. Initiative Worldwide is a media planning and buying, and strategic consulting network of 99 agencies operating in 58 countries.  Initiative is dedicated to securing for every client the maximum return on media investment and offers effective media communications solutions for leading marketers such as: Bayer-Roche, Bang & Olufsen, Burger King, Computer Associates, Continental Tyres, Credit Suisse, easyGroup, France Telecom, Fujitsu Siemens Computers, Home Depot, Johnson & Johnson, Patek Philippe, Ricoh, Samsonite, Storck, and SC Johnson.