Imperial expertise contributes to landmark global plastics report

An Imperial academic has helped shape a major new global assessment of plastic pollution and its solutions.

It shows how packaging pollution, the largest and most visible source of plastic waste, could be virtually eliminated as part of a bold and ambitious vision for the world by 2040. 

The report, Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025: An Assessment of the Global System and Strategies for Transformative Change, has been released by The Pew Charitable Trusts with thought partners Imperial, Systemiq, the University of Oxford, and the Ellen MacArthur Foundation.

Dr Costas Velis, from Imperial’s Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, is among the key contributors to the report. A recognised expert in plastic pollution and circular economy systems, Dr Velis brought his expertise on waste management, informal recycling networks and modelling of plastic flows to the analysis . His work has been central to understanding how systemic changes can reduce pollution while protecting vulnerable communities.

Dr Velis said: “Plastic waste harms our health through open burning, chemicals release and microplastics. If we do nothing, associated risks like cancer, heart disease, asthma, fertility issues and developmental problems would increase. But worsening harm is not inevitable. This report shows a path to cut pollution by 83% by 2040. It’s ambitious, but achievable.”  

The report also reflects Dr Velis’ long-standing advocacy for a just transition in waste management. He has highlighted the need to integrate informal waste workers, who currently collect and sort more than half  of all recycled plastic globally, into future systems that provide fair pay, safe conditions and a voice in decision-making.

“Plastic production is outpacing what we can manage,” Dr Velis added. “More waste will go uncollected, especially in the poorest communities in the Global South. We need urgent investment in services and infrastructure, and a just transition for those who keep our cities clean.”

What the report reveals

The report warns that plastic pollution is accelerating at an unmanageable pace. Around 130 million tonnes of plastic enter the environment every year, and without action this will more than double to 280 million tonnes by 2040. This is the equivalent to dumping a garbage truck of plastic waste into the environment every second. Plastic production is projected to rise by 52% over the next 15 years, far outpacing improvements in waste management.

The health implications are severe. Plastic can harm human health at every stage of its life cycle, with impacts expected to rise by 75% by 2040. Chemicals used in plastics have been linked to cancer, cardiovascular disease and developmental issues, with global health costs estimated at US$1.5 trillion annually. The report identifies open burning of plastic waste, common where waste collection is absent, as the single largest source of health impacts, responsible for 73% of harm today and projected to rise by 130% by 2040 under business-as-usual. Under System Transformation, open burning could fall by 85%, delivering major health benefits.

The report’s System Transformation scenario shows that ambitious, coordinated action using existing solutions could cut annual plastic pollution by 83%, reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 38%, and lower health impacts by more than half. Packaging pollution, the largest source of plastic waste, could be virtually eliminated by 2040.

The cost of delay is high: waiting just five years to act would result in 540 million tonnes more plastic entering the environment, 1,100 million tonnes of new plastic produced, and billions in additional costs for governments and businesses. 

This sense of urgency underpins Dr Velis’ wider work to place health at the heart of global plastics policy. Earlier this year, Dr Velis co-authored the Lancet Countdown on Health and Plastics, which tracks the health impacts of plastics across their life cycle. 

Dr Ed Cook, a longstanding member of Dr Velis’ research team and member of the expert panel for Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025 said: “This report is a wake-up call. Progress on plastic pollution has stalled and is worsening, but we can make a big impact by shifting investment from single-use plastics to reuse and product system redesign.”

Both reports reinforce the same message; solutions to plastic pollution must protect human health as well as the environment, and urgent, coordinated action is essential.