COP30: Imperial researchers react to ‘deeply disappointing’ climate talks

COP30 ended with a contentious deal after two weeks of negotiations on topics ranging from climate finance to pathways for limiting warming to 1.5°C.

Countries successfully agreed to triple funding for climate adaptation, announced a Just Transition mechanism aimed at protecting rights during the shift to a green economy, and established a new fund to protect forests.

However, the final decision did not mention fossil fuels, climate adaptation funding falls far short of what is necessary, the Just Transition mechanism has no funding, there is only a voluntary plan to reduce fossil fuel use, and despite taking place in the heart of the Amazon, countries failed to agree on a reforestation roadmap.

In the aftermath of the agreement, Imperial experts have weighed in.

Countries’ climate pledges are not enough to keep 1.5 °C in reach

The negotiations almost collapsed over disagreements about the commitment to phase-out fossil fuels, where nations such as Saudi Arabia provided sustained opposition. It should be noted that the current COP process requires unanimous agreement for a deal to pass.

Dr Nathan Johnson, Research Associate in Sustainable Energy Systems, said: “Keeping 1.5°C alive means phasing out fossil fuels and slashing deforestation this decade. Yet the COP30 text doesn’t mention ‘fossil fuels’ at all and refers to ‘deforestation’ just once […] without a clear plan to wind down coal, oil and gas and stop forest loss – the principal drivers of warming – this deal sidesteps both the causes of and solutions to the crisis.”

Dr Robin Lamboll, Research Fellow at Imperial, said on Bluesky: “This COP has been deeply disappointing. It claimed to be a COP of action, but all comments on fossil fuels, and even most comments on deforestation […] have been removed from the final text. Being literally on fire at one point was a fitting metaphor.”

COP30 was seen as a critical moment for countries to announce overdue new climate pledges, called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Many countries’ plans are inadequate to meet the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal.

The latest UNEP emissions gap report estimates that since the Paris Agreement in 2015, the world has lowered its warming pathway from about 4°C by 2100 to 2.3-2.5°C. 

Professor Joeri Rogelj, Director of Research, Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, said: "COP30 leaves us between a rock and a hard place […] These NDCs have come in hesitantly, inadequately and unambitiously. They move the needle, but insufficiently to confidently avoid 1.5°C or even 2°C of global warming.”

This is despite recent legal developments, notably the International Court of Justice advisory opinion earlier this year, that NDCs are not voluntary and must reflect the highest possible ambition as per the Paris Agreement.

Dr Alaa Al Khourdajie, Research Fellow at Imperial College London, said: “While NDCs have improved, ambition falls short of the 60% reduction by 2035 required for 1.5°C. Crucially, per the recent ICJ advisory opinion, NDCs aren't voluntary suggestions. Under Article 4(3) of the Paris Agreement, they must reflect states' "highest possible ambition." Setting targets that knowingly fail to align with temperature goals may constitute internationally wrongful conduct.”

Despite criticisms of countries’ NDCs, the continued prominence of the 1.5°C target was welcomed by some given fears the target could fade into obscurity.

Dr Lamboll commenting on Bluesky said: “The reaffirmation of the importance of keeping 1.5°C in reach, implicitly even when it may be temporarily exceeded, is good, but relatively toothless. The need for more on how and who would pay for this is essential going forwards.”

Climate ‘overshoot’ now seen as inevitable

COP30 followed news that the world average annual temperature had exceeded 1.5°C for the first time in 2024. Negotiations this year have therefore turned to the idea of overshoot, whereby the world temporarily exceeds 1.5°C of warming before bringing warming back below this level.

Dr Al Khourdajie said: “Our only remaining chance for 1.5°C is likely through overshoot […] The concern is that without immediate action, we're either abandoning this overshoot-and-return possibility entirely (accepting 2.3°C as permanent), or making any future overshoot unnecessarily deep and prolonged.”

Climate finance: adaptation funding tripled

A sign of progress at COP30 was the commitment by nations to triple funding for climate adaptation to $120bn a year by 2035. 

This commitment is part of a much wider negotiation around climate finance to support countries to decarbonise, with the current (unmet) goal of $300bn per year by 2035 agreed at COP29 and a further goal to work towards mobilising $1.3tn, also by 2035. Also important to note is that new guidance links this climate finance goal to the Loss and Damage Fund (a fund created to assist countries that face the impacts of climate change).

Dr Emily Theokritoff, Research Associate in Climate Damage Attribution at the Grantham Institute, said: “For countries in the Global South on the frontlines of its worst impacts, scaling up adaptation finance is fundamentally a matter of climate justice. While adaptation limits are real and increasingly being reached, many harmful outcomes can still be avoided if we work to close the persistent adaptation gap.”

The fossil fuel roadmap: welcomed but weak

A roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels was blocked from the formal COP30 decision, but the Brazilian presidency announced the plan would proceed outside the UN process. The agreement also included text permitting each country to pursue this roadmap “at its own pace”. 

Commenting on the development, Dr Al Khourdajie said: “While establishing a roadmap is positive for planning, "each country at its own pace" presents a fundamental tension with physical reality. The carbon budget is fixed and rapidly diminishing. Delay doesn't provide options, it eliminates them. If national pace is determined by economic convenience rather than physical constraints, every year […] makes a return to 1.5°C less feasible.”

Plan for a just transition: a welcome move

One significant development at COP30 was the agreement on a just transition mechanism, a plan to ensure that the move to a green economy around the world takes place fairly and protects the rights of all people, including workers, women and Indigenous people.

Despite no success in attaching funding to the mechanism, climate groups welcomed the agreement following many years of pressure from civil society.

COP31 will now take place in Turkey next year, following a compromise with Australia which saw the country relinquish its bid in return for the role of president of the negotiations.

Dr Caterina Brandmayr, Director of Policy and Translation at the Grantham Institute said: "Although the challenging geopolitical and economic context no doubt cast a shadow over the COP in Belém, the final agreement shows that countries are still committed to working together to tackle the climate challenge, while calls for further ambition at the negotiations should provide much needed momentum for coalitions of countries and non-state actors to go further and faster on crucial issues such as the transition away from fossil fuels."