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  • Journal article
    Ewers RM, Cook J, Daniel OZ, Orme CDL, Groner V, Joshi J, Rallings A, Rallings T, Amarasekare Pet al., 2024,

    New insights to be gained from a Virtual Ecosystem

    , Ecological Modelling, Vol: 498, ISSN: 0304-3800

    The myriad interactions among individual plants, animals, microbes and their abiotic environment generate emergent phenomena that will determine the future of life on Earth. Here, we argue that holistic ecosystem models – incorporating key biological domains and feedbacks between biotic and abiotic processes and capable of predicting emergent phenomena – are required if we are to understand the functioning of complex, terrestrial ecosystems in a rapidly changing planet. We argue that holistic ecosystem models will provide a framework for integrating the many approaches used to study ecosystems, including biodiversity science, population and community ecology, soil science, biogeochemistry, hydrology and climate science. Holistic models will provide new insights into the nature and importance of feedbacks that cut across scales of space and time, and that connect ecosystem domains such as microbes with animals or above with below ground. They will allow us to critically examine the origins and maintenance of ecosystem stability, resilience and sustainability through the lens of systems theory, and provide a much-needed boost for conservation and the management of natural environments. We outline our approach to developing a holistic ecosystem model – the Virtual Ecosystem – and argue that while the construction of such complex models is obviously ambitious, it is both feasible and necessary.

  • Journal article
    Mills MB, Both S, Jotan P, Huaraca Huasco W, Cruz R, Pillco MM, Burslem DFRP, Maycock C, Malhi Y, Ewers RM, Berrio JC, Kaduk J, Page S, Robert R, Teh YA, Riutta Tet al., 2024,

    From tree to plot: investigating stem CO2 efflux and its drivers along a logging gradient in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo.

    , New Phytol, Vol: 244, Pages: 91-103

    Stem respiration constitutes a substantial proportion of autotrophic respiration in forested ecosystems, but its drivers across different spatial scales and land-use gradients remain poorly understood. This study quantifies and examines the impact of logging disturbance on stem CO2 efflux (EA) in Malaysian Borneo. EA was quantified at tree- and stand-level in nine 1-ha plots over a logging gradient from heavily logged to old-growth using the static chamber method. Tree-level results showed higher EA per unit stem area in logged vs old-growth plots (37.0 ± 1.1 vs 26.92 ± 1.14 g C m-2 month-1). However, at stand-level, there was no difference in EA between logged and old-growth plots (6.7 ± 1.1 vs 6.0 ± 0.7 Mg C ha-1 yr-1) due to greater stem surface area in old-growth plots. Allocation to growth respiration and carbon use efficiency was significantly higher in logged plots. Variation in EA at both tree- and stand-level was driven by tree size, growth and differences in investment strategies between the forest types. These results reflect different resource allocation strategies and priorities, with a priority for growth in response to increased light availability in logged plots, while old-growth plots prioritise maintenance and cell structure.

  • Journal article
    Clegg T, Pawar S, 2024,

    Variation in thermal physiology can drive the temperature-dependence of microbial community richness

    , eLife

    Predicting how species diversity changes along environmental gradients is an enduring problem in ecology. In microbes current theories tend to invoke energy availability and enzyme kinetics as the main drivers of temperature-richness relationships. Here we derive a general empirically-grounded theory that can explain this phenomenon by linking microbial species richness in competitive communities to variation in the temperature-dependence of their interaction and growth rates. Specifically, the shape of the microbial community temperature-richness relationship depends on how rapidly the strength of effective competition between species pairs changes with temperature relative to the variance of their growth rates. Furthermore, it predicts that a thermal specialist-generalist tradeoff in growth rates alters coexistence by shifting this balance, causing richness to peak at relatively higher temperatures. Finally, we show that the observed patterns of variation in thermal performance curves of metabolic traits across extant bacterial taxa is indeed sufficient to generate the variety of community-level temperature-richness responses observed in the real world. Our results provide a new and general mechanism that can help explain temperature-diversity gradients in microbial communities, and provide a quantitative framework for interlinking variation in the thermal physiology of microbial species to their community-level diversity.

  • Journal article
    Pawar S, Kontopoulos D-G, Sentis A, Daufresne Met al., 2024,

    No universal mathematical model for thermal performance curves across traits and taxonomic groups

    , Nature Communications, ISSN: 2041-1723
  • Journal article
    Liu J, Ryu Y, Luo X, Dechant B, Stocker BD, Keenan TF, Gentine P, Li X, Li B, Harrison SP, Prentice ICet al., 2024,

    Evidence for widespread thermal acclimation of canopy photosynthesis

    , Nature Plants, ISSN: 2055-026X

    Plants acclimate to temperature by adjusting their photosynthetic capacity over weeks to months. However, most evidence for photosynthetic acclimation derives from leaf-scale experiments. Here, we address the scarcity of evidence for canopy-scale photosynthetic acclimation by examining the correlation between maximum photosynthetic rates (Amax,2000) and growth temperature ((T_air ) ̅) across a range of concurrent temperatures and canopy foliage quantity, using data from over 200 eddy covariance sites. We detect widespread thermal acclimation of canopy-scale photosynthesis, demonstrated by enhanced Amax,2000 under higher (T_air ) ̅, across flux sites with adequate water availability. A 14-day period is identified as the most relevant time scale for acclimation across all sites, with a range of 12–25 days for different plant functional types. The mean apparent thermal acclimation rate across all ecosystems is 0.41 (-0.38–1.04 for 5th–95th percentile range) µmol m-2 s-1 C-1, with croplands showing the largest and grasslands the lowest acclimation rates. Incorporating an optimality-based prediction of leaf photosynthetic capacities into a biochemical photosynthesis model is shown to improve the representation of thermal acclimation. Our results underscore the critical need for enhanced understanding and modelling of canopy-scale photosynthetic capacity to accurately predict plant responses to warmer growing seasons.

  • Journal article
    Prentice IC, Balzarolo M, Bloomfield KJ, Chen JM, Dechant B, Ghent D, Janssens IA, Luo X, Morfopoulos C, Ryu Y, Vicca S, van Hoolst Ret al., 2024,

    Principles for satellite monitoring of vegetation carbon uptake

    , Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, ISSN: 2662-138X

    Remote sensing-based numerical models harness satellite-borne measurements of light absorption by vegetation to estimate global patterns and trends in gross primary production (GPP)—the basis of the terrestrial carbon cycle. In this Perspective, we discuss the challenges in estimating GPP using these models and explore ways to improve their reliability. Current models vary substantially in their structure and produce differing results, especially as regards temporal trends in GPP. Many models invoke the light use efficiency (LUE) principle, which links light absorption to photosynthesis and plant biomass production, to estimate GPP. But these models vary in their assumptions about the controls of LUE and typically depend on many, poorly known parameters. Eco-evolutionary optimality principles can greatly reduce parameter requirements, and can improve the accuracy and consistency of GPP estimates and interpretations of their relationships with environmental drivers. Integrating data across different satellites and sensors, and utilising auxiliary optical band retrievals, could enhance spatiotemporal resolution and improve models' ability to detect aspects of vegetation physiology, including drought stress. Extending and harmonizing the eddy-covariance flux tower network will support systematic evaluation of GPP models. Enhancing the reliability of GPP and biomass production estimates will better characterise temporal variation and improve understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle’s response to environmental change.

  • Journal article
    Kientega M, Clarkson CS, Traoré N, Hui T-YJ, O'Loughlin S, Millogo A-A, Epopa PS, Yao FA, Belem AMG, Brenas J, Miles A, Burt A, Diabaté Aet al., 2024,

    Whole-genome sequencing of major malaria vectors reveals the evolution of new insecticide resistance variants in a longitudinal study in Burkina Faso

    , Malaria Journal, Vol: 23, ISSN: 1475-2875

    BACKGROUND: Intensive deployment of insecticide based malaria vector control tools resulted in the rapid evolution of phenotypes resistant to these chemicals. Understanding this process at the genomic level is important for the deployment of successful vector control interventions. Therefore, longitudinal sampling followed by whole genome sequencing (WGS) is necessary to understand how these evolutionary processes evolve over time. This study investigated the change in genetic structure and the evolution of the insecticide resistance variants in natural populations of Anopheles gambiae over time and space from 2012 to 2017 in Burkina Faso. METHODS: New genomic data have been generated from An. gambiae mosquitoes collected from three villages in the western part of Burkina Faso between 2012 and 2017. The samples were whole-genome sequenced and the data used in the An. gambiae 1000 genomes (Ag1000G) project as part of the Vector Observatory. Genomic data were analysed using the analysis pipeline previously designed by the Ag1000G project. RESULTS: The results showed similar and consistent nucleotide diversity and negative Tajima's D between An. gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) and Anopheles coluzzii. Principal component analysis (PCA) and the fixation index (FST) showed a clear genetic structure in the An. gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) species. Genome-wide FST and H12 scans identified genomic regions under divergent selection that may have implications in the adaptation to ecological changes. Novel voltage-gated sodium channel pyrethroid resistance target-site alleles (V402L, I1527T) were identified at increasing frequencies alongside the established alleles (Vgsc-L995F, Vgsc-L995S and N1570Y) within the An. gambiae s.l. POPULATIONS: Organophosphate metabolic resistance markers were also identified, at increasing frequencies, within the An. gambiae s.s. populations from 2012 to 2017, including the SNP Ace1-G280S and its associated duplication. Variants simultaneously identifi

  • Journal article
    Li J, Prentice IC, 2024,

    Global patterns of plant functional traits and their relationships to climate

    , Communications Biology, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2399-3642

    Plant functional traits (FTs) determine growth, reproduction and survival strategies of plants adapted to their growth environment. Exploring global geographic patterns of FTs, their covariation and their relationships to climate are necessary steps towards better-founded predictions of how global environmental change will affect ecosystem composition. We compile an extensive global dataset for 16 FTs and characterise trait-trait and trait-climate relationships separately within non-woody, woody deciduous and woody evergreen plant groups, using multivariate analysis and generalised additive models (GAMs). Among the six major FTs considered, two dominant trait dimensions—representing plant size and the leaf economics spectrum (LES) respectively—are identified within all three groups. Size traits (plant height, diaspore mass) however are generally higher in warmer climates, while LES traits (leaf mass and nitrogen per area) are higher in drier climates. Larger leaves are associated principally with warmer winters in woody evergreens, but with wetter climates in non-woody plants. GAM-simulated global patterns for all 16 FTs explain up to three-quarters of global trait variation. Global maps obtained by upscaling GAMs are broadly in agreement with iNaturalist citizen-science FT data. This analysis contributes to the foundations for global trait-based ecosystem modelling by demonstrating universal relationships between FTs and climate.

  • Journal article
    Cavan EL, Mackay N, Hill SL, Atkinson A, Belcher A, Visser Aet al., 2024,

    Antarctic krill sequester similar amounts of carbon to key coastal blue carbon habitats

    , Nature Communications, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2041-1723

    The carbon sequestration potential of open-ocean pelagic ecosystems is vastly under-reported compared to coastal vegetation ‘blue carbon’ systems. Here we show that just a single pelagic harvested species, Antarctic krill, sequesters a similar amount of carbon through its sinking faecal pellets as marshes, mangroves and seagrass. Due to their massive population biomass, fast-sinking faecal pellets and the modest depths that pellets need to reach to achieve sequestration (mean is 381 m), Antarctic krill faecal pellets sequester 20 MtC per productive season (spring to early Autumn). This is equates USD$ 4 − 46 billion depending on the price of carbon, with krill pellet carbon stored for at least 100 years and with some reaching as far as the North Pacific. Antarctic krill are being impacted by rapid polar climate change and an expanding fishery, thus krill populations and their habitat warrant protection to preserve this valuable carbon sink.

  • Journal article
    Stocker B, Dong N, Perkowski EA, Schneider PD, Xu H, de Boer H, Rebel KT, Smith NG, Van Sundert K, Wang H, Jones SE, Prentice IC, Harrison SPet al., 2024,

    Empirical evidence and theoretical understanding ofecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycle interactions

    , New Phytologist, ISSN: 0028-646X
  • Journal article
    Morales-Castilla I, Davies TJ, Legault G, Buonaiuto DM, Chamberlain CJ, Ettinger AK, Garner M, Jones FAM, Loughnan D, Pearse WD, Sodhi DS, Wolkovich EMet al., 2024,

    Phylogenetic estimates of species-level phenology improve ecological forecasting

    , Nature Climate Change, Vol: 14, Pages: 989-995, ISSN: 1758-678X

    The ability to adapt to climate change requires accurate ecological forecasting. Current forecasts, however, have failed to capture important variability in biological responses, especially across species. Here we present a new method using Bayesian hierarchical phylogenetic models and show that species-level differences are larger than the average differences between cues. Applying our method to phenological experiments manipulating temperature and day length we show an underlying phylogenetic structure in plant phenological responses to temperature cues, whereas responses to photoperiod appear weaker, more uniform across species and less phylogenetically constrained. We thus illustrate how a focus on certain clades can bias prediction, but that predictions may be improved by integrating information on phylogeny to better estimate species-level responses. Our approach provides an advance in ecological forecasting, with implications for predicting the impacts of climate change and other anthropogenic forces on ecosystems.

  • Journal article
    Jeong S, Ryu Y, Gentine P, Lian X, Fang J, Li X, Dechant B, Kong J, Choi W, Jiang C, Keenan TF, Harrison SP, Prentice ICet al., 2024,

    Persistent global greening over the last four decades using novel long-term vegetation index data with enhanced temporal consistency

    , Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol: 311, ISSN: 0034-4257

    Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite observations have provided the longest global daily records from 1980s, but the remaining temporal inconsistency in vegetation index datasets has hindered reliable assessment of vegetation greenness trends. To tackle this, we generated novel global long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Near-Infrared Reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) datasets derived from AVHRR and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We addressed residual temporal inconsistency through three-step post processing including cross-sensor calibration among AVHRR sensors, orbital drifting correction for AVHRR sensors, and machine learning-based harmonization between AVHRR and MODIS. After applying each processing step, we confirmed the enhanced temporal consistency in terms of detrended anomaly, trend and interannual variability of NDVI and NIRv at calibration sites. Our refined NDVI and NIRv datasets showed a persistent global greening trend over the last four decades (NDVI: 0.0008 yr−1; NIRv: 0.0003 yr−1), contrasting with those without the three processing steps that showed rapid greening trends before 2000 (NDVI: 0.0017 yr−1; NIRv: 0.0008 yr−1) and weakened greening trends after 2000 (NDVI: 0.0004 yr−1; NIRv: 0.0001 yr−1). These findings highlight the importance of minimizing temporal inconsistency in long-term vegetation index datasets, which can support more reliable trend analysis in global vegetation response to climate changes.

  • Journal article
    Dechant B, Kattge J, Pavlick R, Schneider FD, Sabatini FM, Moreno-Martínez Á, Butler EE, van Bodegom PM, Vallicrosa H, Kattenborn T, Boonman CCF, Madani N, Wright IJ, Dong N, Feilhauer H, Peñuelas J, Sardans J, Aguirre-Gutiérrez J, Reich PB, Leitão PJ, Cavender-Bares J, Myers-Smith IH, Durán SM, Croft H, Prentice IC, Huth A, Rebel K, Zaehle S, Šímová I, Díaz S, Reichstein M, Schiller C, Bruelheide H, Mahecha M, Wirth C, Malhi Y, Townsend PAet al., 2024,

    Intercomparison of global foliar trait maps reveals fundamental differences and limitations of upscaling approaches

    , Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol: 311, ISSN: 0034-4257

    Foliar traits such as specific leaf area (SLA), leaf nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) concentrations play important roles in plant economic strategies and ecosystem functioning. Various global maps of these foliar traits have been generated using statistical upscaling approaches based on in-situ trait observations. Here, we intercompare such global upscaled foliar trait maps at 0.5° spatial resolution (six maps for SLA, five for N, three for P), categorize the upscaling approaches used to generate them, and evaluate the maps with trait estimates from a global database of vegetation plots (sPlotOpen). We disentangled the contributions from different plant functional types (PFTs) to the upscaled maps and quantified the impacts of using different plot-level trait metrics on the evaluation with sPlotOpen: community weighted mean (CWM) and top-of-canopy weighted mean (TWM). We found that the global foliar trait maps of SLA and N differ drastically and fall into two groups that are almost uncorrelated (for P only maps from one group were available). The primary factor explaining the differences between these groups is the use of PFT information combined with remote sensing-derived land cover products in one group while the other group mostly relied on environmental predictors alone. The maps that used PFT and corresponding land cover information exhibit considerable similarities in spatial patterns that are strongly driven by land cover. The maps not using PFTs show a lower level of similarity and tend to be strongly driven by individual environmental variables. Upscaled maps of both groups were moderately correlated to sPlotOpen data aggregated to the grid-cell level (R = 0.2–0.6) when processing sPlotOpen in a way that is consistent with the respective trait upscaling approaches, including the plot-level trait metric (CWM or TWM) and the scaling to the grid cells with or without accounting for fractional land cover. The impact of using TWM or CWM was relevant

  • Journal article
    Flo V, Joshi J, Sabot M, Sandoval D, Prentice ICet al., 2024,

    Incorporating photosynthetic acclimation improves stomatal optimisation models

    , Plant, Cell and Environment, Vol: 47, Pages: 3478-3493, ISSN: 0140-7791

    Stomatal opening in plant leaves is regulated through a balance of carbon and water exchange under different environmental conditions. Accurate estimation of stomatal regulation is crucial for understanding how plants respond to changing environmental conditions, particularly under climate change. A new generation of optimality-based modelling schemes determines instantaneous stomatal responses from a balance of trade-offs between carbon gains and hydraulic costs, but most such schemes do not account for biochemical acclimation in response to drought. Here, we compare the performance of six instantaneous stomatal optimisation models with and without accounting for photosynthetic acclimation. Using experimental data from 37 plant species, we found that accounting for photosynthetic acclimation improves the prediction of carbon assimilation in a majority of the tested models. Photosynthetic acclimation contributed significantly to the reduction of photosynthesis under drought conditions in all tested models. Drought effects on photosynthesis could not accurately be explained by the hydraulic impairment functions embedded in the stomatal models alone, indicating that photosynthetic acclimation must be considered to improve estimates of carbon assimilation during drought.

  • Journal article
    Heath BE, Suzuki R, LePenru NP, Skinner J, Orme CDL, Ewers RM, Sethi SS, Picinali Let al., 2024,

    Spatial ecosystem monitoring with a Multichannel Acoustic Autonomous Recording Unit (MAARU)

    , Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Vol: 15, Pages: 1568-1579, ISSN: 2041-210X

    1. Multi-microphone recording adds spatial information to recorded audio with emerging applications in ecosystem monitoring. Specifically placing sounds in space can improve animal count accuracy, locate illegal activity like logging and poaching, track animals to monitor behaviour and habitat use and allow for ‘beamforming’ to amplify sounds from target directions for downstream classification. Studies have shown many advantages of spatial acoustics, but uptake remains limited as the equipment is often expensive, complicated, inaccessible or only suitable for short-term deployments.2. With an emphasis on enhanced uptake and usability, we present a low-cost, open-source, six-channel recorder built entirely from commercially available components which can be integrated into a solar-powered, online system. The MAARU (Multichannel Acoustic Autonomous Recording Unit) works as an independent node in long-term autonomous, passive and/or short-term deployments. Here, we introduce MAARU's hardware and software and present the results of lab and field tests investigating the device's durability and usability.3. MAARU records multichannel audio with similar costs and power demands to equivalent omnidirectional recorders. MAARU devices have been deployed in the United Kingdom and Brazil, where we have shown MAARUs can accurately localise pure tones up to 6 kHz and bird calls as far as 8 m away (±10° range, 100% and >60% of signals, respectively). Louder calls may have even further detection radii. We also show how beamforming can be used with MAARUs to improve species ID confidence scores.4. MAARU is an accessible, low-cost option for those looking to explore spatial acoustics accurately and easily with a single device, and without the formidable expenses and processing complications associated with establishing arrays. Ultimately, the added directional element of the multichannel recording provided by MAARU allows for enhanced recording

  • Journal article
    Haas O, Keeping T, Gomez-Dans J, Prentice IC, Harrison SPet al., 2024,

    The global drivers of wildfire

    , Frontiers in Environmental Science, ISSN: 2296-665X

    Changes in wildfire regimes are of growing concern and raise issues about how well we can model risks in a changing climate. Process-based coupled fire-vegetation models, used to project future wildfire regimes, capture many aspects of wildfire regimes poorly. However, there is now a wealth of information from empirical studies on the climate, vegetation, topography and human activity controls on wildfire regimes. The measures used to quantify these controls vary among studies, but certain variables consistently emerge as the most important: gross primary production as a measure of fuel availability, vegetation cover as a measure of fuel continuity, and atmospheric humidity as a measure of fuel drying. Contrary to popular perception, ignitions are generally not a limiting factor for wildfires. In this review, we describe how empirical fire models implement wildfire processes, synthesise current understanding of the controls on wildfire extent and severity, and suggest ways in which fire modelling could be improved.• Empirical analyses of the controls on wildfires consistently identify vegetation properties associated with fuel availability and continuity and climate factors associated with fuel drying as the most important influences on wildfire extent and severity. • Ignitions, whether anthropogenic or natural, are generally not limiting.• Fire size, burnt area and fire intensity are influenced by different factors; current relationships between these aspects of wildfire could become decoupled in an altered climate. • Some hypotheses embedded in 'process-based' fire-vegetation models are inconsistent with empirical evidence, implying a need for a re-design.

  • Journal article
    Boyle MJW, Sharp AC, Barclay MV, Chung AYC, Ewers RM, de Rougemont G, Bonebrake TC, Kitching RL, Stork NE, Ashton LAet al., 2024,

    Tropical beetles more sensitive to impacts are less likely to be known to science

    , Current Biology, Vol: 34, Pages: R770-R771, ISSN: 0960-9822

    Insects are posited to be declining globally. This is particularly pertinent in tropical forests, which exhibit both the highest levels of biodiversity and the highest rates of biodiversity loss. However, for the hyper-diverse tropical insects there are scant data available to evidence declines. Understanding tropical insect diversity and its response to environmental change has therefore become a challenge, but it is estimated that 80% of tropical insect species remain undescribed1. Insect biodiversity predictions are based mostly on well-studied taxa and extrapolated to other groups, but no one knows whether resilience to environmental change varies between undescribed and described species. Here, we collected staphylinid beetles from unlogged and logged tropical forests in Borneo and investigated their responses to environmental change. Out of 252 morphospecies collected, 76% were undescribed. Undescribed species showed higher community turnover, reduced abundance and decreased probability of occurrence in logged forests. Thus the unknown components of tropical insect biodiversity are likely more impacted by human-induced environmental change. If these patterns are widespread, how accurate will assessments of insect declines in the tropics be?

  • Journal article
    Savolainen V, Bezeng BS, 2024,

    An African perspective to biodiversity conservation in the 21st century

    , Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, ISSN: 0962-8436

    Africa boasts high biodiversity while also being home to some of the largest and fastest-growing human populations. Although the current environmental footprint of Africa is low compared to other continents, the population of Africa is estimated at around 1.5 billion inhabitants, representing nearly 18% of the world's total population. Consequently, Africa’s rich biodiversity is under threat, yet only 19% of the landscape and 17% of the seascape are under any form of protection. To effectively address this issue and align with the Convention on Biological Diversity's ambitious ‘30 by 30’ goal, which seeks to protect 30% of the world's land and oceans by 2030, substantial funding and conservation measures are urgently required. In response to this critical challenge, as scientists and conservationists working in Africa, we propose five recommendations for future directions aimed at enhancing biodiversity conservation for the betterment of African society: (i) accelerate data collection, data sharing and analytics for informed policy and decision making; (ii) innovate education and capacity building for future generations; (iii) enhance and expand protected areas, ecological networks, and foundational legal frameworks; (iv) unlock creative funding channels for cutting-edge conservation initiatives; and (v) integrate indigenous and local knowledge into forward-thinking conservation strategies. By implementing these recommendations, we believe Africa can make significant strides towards preserving its unique biodiversity, while fostering a healthier society, and contributing to global conservation efforts.

  • Journal article
    Sethi S, Bick IA, Chen M-Y, Crouzeilles R, Hillier BV, Lawson J, Lee C-Y, Liu S-H, Henrique de Freitas Parruco C, Rosten CM, Somveille M, Tuanmu M-N, Banks-Leite Cet al., 2024,

    Large-scale avian vocalization detection delivers reliable global biodiversity insights

    , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, Vol: 121, ISSN: 0027-8424

    Tracking biodiversity and its dynamics at scale is essential if we are to solve global environmental challenges. Detecting animal vocalizations in passively recorded audio data offers an automatable, inexpensive, and taxonomically broad way to monitor biodiversity. However, the labor and expertise required to label new data and fine-tune algorithms for each deployment is a major barrier. In this study, we applied a pretrained bird vocalization detection model, BirdNET, to 152,376 h of audio comprising datasets from Norway, Taiwan, Costa Rica, and Brazil. We manually listened to a subset of detections for each species in each dataset, calibrated classification thresholds, and found precisions of over 90% for 109 of 136 species. While some species were reliably detected across multiple datasets, the performance of others was dataset specific. By filtering out unreliable detections, we could extract species and community-level insight into diel (Brazil) and seasonal (Taiwan) temporal scales, as well as landscape (Costa Rica) and national (Norway) spatial scales. Our findings demonstrate that, with relatively fast but essential local calibration, a single vocalization detection model can deliver multifaceted community and species-level insight across highly diverse datasets; unlocking the scale at which acoustic monitoring can deliver immediate applied impact.

  • Journal article
    Wayman JP, Sadler JP, Martin TE, Graham LJ, White HJ, Tobias JA, Matthews TJet al., 2024,

    Unravelling the complexities of biotic homogenization and heterogenization in the British avifauna.

    , J Anim Ecol

    Biotic homogenization is a process whereby species assemblages become more similar through time. The standard way of identifying the process of biotic homogenization is to look for decreases in spatial beta-diversity. However, using a single assemblage-level metric to assess homogenization can mask important changes in the occupancy patterns of individual species. Here, we analysed changes in the spatial beta-diversity patterns (i.e. biotic heterogenization or homogenization) of British bird assemblages within 30 km × 30 km regions between two periods (1988-1991 and 2008-2011). We partitioned the change in spatial beta-diversity into extirpation and colonization-resultant change (i.e. change in spatial beta-diversity within each region resulting from both extirpation and colonization). We used measures of abiotic change in combination with Bayesian modelling to disentangle the drivers of biotic heterogenization and homogenization. We detected both heterogenization and homogenization across the two time periods and three measures of diversity (taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional). In addition, both extirpation and colonization contributed to the observed changes, with heterogenization mainly driven by extirpation and homogenization by colonization. These assemblage-level changes were primarily due to shifting occupancy patterns of generalist species. Compared to habitat generalists, habitat specialists had significantly (i) higher average contributions to colonization-resultant change (indicating heterogenization within a region due to colonization) and (ii) lower average contributions to extirpation-resultant change (indicating homogenization from extirpation). Generalists showed the opposite pattern. Increased extirpation-resultant homogenization within regions was associated with increased urban land cover and decreased habitat diversity, precipitation, and temperature. Changes in extirpation-resultant heterogenization and col

  • Journal article
    Ewers RM, 2024,

    An audacious approach to conservation.

    , Trends Ecol Evol

    New digital and sensor technology provides a huge opportunity to revolutionise conservation, but we lack a plan for deploying the technologies effectively. I argue that environmental research should be concentrated at a small number of 'super-sites' and that the concentrated knowledge from super-sites should be used to develop holistic ecosystem models. These, in turn, should be morphed into digital twin ecosystems by live connecting them with automated environmental monitoring programmes. Data-driven simulations can then help select pathways to achieve locally determined conservation goals, and digital twins could revise and adapt those decisions in real-time. This technology-heavy vision for 'smart conservation' provides a map toward a future defined by more flexible, more responsive, and more efficient management of natural environments.

  • Journal article
    Connolly JB, Burt A, Christophides G, Diabate A, Habtewold T, Hancock PA, James AA, Kayondo JK, Lwetoijera DW, Manjurano A, McKemey AR, Santos MR, Windbichler N, Randazzo Fet al., 2024,

    Publisher Correction: Considerations for first field trials of low-threshold gene drive for malaria vector control

    , Malaria Journal, Vol: 23, ISSN: 1475-2875
  • Journal article
    Chik HYJ, Mannarelli M-E, Dos Remedios N, Simons MJP, Burke T, Schroeder J, Dugdale HLet al., 2024,

    Adult telomere length is positively correlated with survival and lifetime reproductive success in a wild passerine

    , Mol Ecol, Vol: 33, ISSN: 0962-1083

    Explaining variation in individual fitness is a key goal in evolutionary biology. Recently, telomeres, repeating DNA sequences capping chromosome ends, have gained attention as a biomarker for body state, physiological costs, and senescence. Existing research has provided mixed evidence for whether telomere length correlates with fitness, including survival and reproductive output. Moreover, few studies have examined how the rate of change in telomere length correlates with fitness in wild populations. Here, we intensively monitored an insular population of house sparrows, and collected longitudinal telomere and life history data (16 years, 1225 individuals). We tested whether telomere length and its rate of change predict fitness measures, namely survival, lifespan and annual and lifetime reproductive effort and success. Telomere length positively predicted short-term survival, independent of age, but did not predict lifespan, suggesting either a diminishing telomere length-survival correlation with age or other extrinsic factors of mortality. The positive association of telomere length with survival translated into reproductive benefits, as birds with longer telomeres produced more genetic recruits, hatchlings and reared more fledglings over their lifetime. In contrast, there was no association between telomere dynamics and annual reproductive output, suggesting telomere dynamics might not reflect the costs of reproduction in this population, potentially masked by variation in individual quality. The rate of change of telomere length did not correlate with neither lifespan nor lifetime reproductive success. Our results provide further evidence that telomere length correlates with fitness, and contribute to our understanding of the selection on, and evolution of, telomere dynamics.

  • Journal article
    Gaboriau T, Tobias JA, Silvestro D, Salamin Net al., 2024,

    Exploring the Macroevolutionary Signature of Asymmetric Inheritance at Speciation.

    , Syst Biol

    Popular comparative phylogenetic models such as Brownian Motion, Ornstein-Ulhenbeck, and their extensions, assume that, at speciation, a trait value is inherited identically by two descendant species. This assumption contrasts with models of speciation at a micro-evolutionary scale where descendants' phenotypic distributions are sub-samples of the ancestral distribution. Different speciation mechanisms can lead to a displacement of the ancestral phenotypic mean among descendants and an asymmetric inheritance of the ancestral phenotypic variance. In contrast, even macro-evolutionary models that account for intraspecific variance assume symmetrically conserved inheritance of ancestral phenotypic distribution at speciation. Here we develop an Asymmetric Brownian Motion model (ABM) that relaxes the assumption of symmetric and conserved inheritance of the ancestral distribution at the time of speciation. The ABM jointly models the evolution of both intra- and inter-specific phenotypic variation. It also infers the mode of phenotypic inheritance at speciation, which can range from a symmetric and conserved inheritance, where descendants inherit the ancestral distribution, to an asymmetric and displaced inheritance, where descendants inherit divergent phenotypic means and variances. To demonstrate this model, we analyze the evolution of beak morphology in Darwin finches, finding evidence of displacement at speciation. The ABM model helps to bridge micro- and macro-evolutionary models of trait evolution by providing a more robust framework for testing the effects of ecological speciation, character displacement, and niche partitioning on trait evolution at the macro-evolutionary scale.

  • Journal article
    Martins LP, Stouffer DB, Blendinger PG, Böhning-Gaese K, Costa JM, Dehling DM, Donatti CI, Emer C, Galetti M, Heleno R, Menezes Í, Morante-Filho JC, Muñoz MC, Neuschulz EL, Pizo MA, Quitián M, Ruggera RA, Saavedra F, Santillán V, Schleuning M, da Silva LP, Ribeiro da Silva F, Tobias JA, Traveset A, Vollstädt MGR, Tylianakis JMet al., 2024,

    Birds optimize fruit size consumed near their geographic range limits.

    , Science, Vol: 385, Pages: 331-336

    Animals can adjust their diet to maximize energy or nutritional intake. For example, birds often target fruits that match their beak size because those fruits can be consumed more efficiently. We hypothesized that pressure to optimize diet-measured as matching between fruit and beak size-increases under stressful environments, such as those that determine species' range edges. Using fruit-consumption and trait information for 97 frugivorous bird and 831 plant species across six continents, we demonstrate that birds feed more frequently on closely size-matched fruits near their geographic range limits. This pattern was particularly strong for highly frugivorous birds, whereas opportunistic frugivores showed no such tendency. These findings highlight how frugivore interactions might respond to stressful conditions and reveal that trait matching may not predict resource use consistently.

  • Journal article
    Simpson EG, Fraser I, Woolf H, Pearse WDet al., 2024,

    Variation in near-surface soil temperature drives plant assemblage differentiation across aspect.

    , Ecol Evol, Vol: 14, ISSN: 2045-7758

    Quantifying assemblage variation across environmental gradients provides insight into the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that differentiate assemblages locally within a larger climate regime. We assessed how vascular plant functional composition and diversity varied across microenvironment to identify ecological differences in assemblages in a mountainous fieldsite in northeastern Utah, USA. Then, we looked at how life-history strategies and information about phylogenetic differences affect the relationship between functional metrics and environment. We found less functionally dispersed assemblages that were shorter and more resource-conservative on south-facing slopes where intra-annual soil temperature was hotter and more variable. In contrast, we found more functionally dispersed assemblages, that were taller and more resource-acquisitive on north-facing slopes where intra-annual temperature was cooler and less variable. Herbaceous and woody perennials drove these trends. Additionally, including information about phylogenetic differences in a dispersion metric indicated that phylogeny accounts for traits we did not measure. At this fieldsite, soil temperature acts as an environmental filter across aspect. If soil temperature increases and becomes more variable, intra-annually, the function of north- versus south-facing assemblages may be at risk for contrasting reasons. On south-facing slopes, assemblages may not have the variance in functional diversity needed to respond to more intense, stressful conditions. Conversely, assemblages on north-facing slopes may not have the resource-conservative strategies needed to persist if temperatures become hotter and more variable intra-annually. Given these results, we advocate for the inclusion of aspect differentiation in studies seeking to understand species and assemblage shifts in response to changing climate conditions.

  • Journal article
    Ewers RM, Orme CDL, Pearse WD, Zulkifli N, Yvon-Durocher G, Yusah KM, Yoh N, Yeo DCJ, Wong A, Williamson J, Wilkinson CL, Wiederkehr F, Webber BL, Wearn OR, Wai L, Vollans M, Twining JP, Turner EC, Tobias JA, Thorley J, Telford EM, Teh YA, Tan HH, Swinfield T, Svátek M, Struebig M, Stork N, Sleutel J, Slade EM, Sharp A, Shabrani A, Sethi SS, Seaman DJI, Sawang A, Roxby GB, Rowcliffe JM, Rossiter SJ, Riutta T, Rahman H, Qie L, Psomas E, Prairie A, Poznansky F, Pillay R, Picinali L, Pianzin A, Pfeifer M, Parrett JM, Noble CD, Nilus R, Mustaffa N, Mullin KE, Mitchell S, Mckinlay AR, Maunsell S, Matula R, Massam M, Martin S, Malhi Y, Majalap N, Maclean CS, Mackintosh E, Luke SH, Lewis OT, Layfield HJ, Lane-Shaw I, Kueh BH, Kratina P, Konopik O, Kitching R, Kinneen L, Kemp VA, Jotan P, Jones N, Jebrail EW, Hroneš M, Heon SP, Hemprich-Bennett DR, Haysom JK, Harianja MF, Hardwick J, Gregory N, Gray R, Gray REJ, Granville N, Gill R, Fraser A, Foster WA, Folkard-Tapp H, Fletcher RJ, Fikri AH, Fayle TM, Faruk A, Eggleton P, Edwards DP, Drinkwater R, Dow RA, Döbert TF, Didham RK, Dickinson KJM, Deere NJ, de Lorm T, Dawood MM, Davison CW, Davies ZG, Davies RG, Dančák M, Cusack J, Clare EL, Chung A, Chey VK, Chapman PM, Cator L, Carpenter D, Carbone C, Calloway K, Bush ER, Burslem DFRP, Brown KD, Brooks SJ, Brasington E, Brant H, Boyle MJW, Both S, Blackman J, Bishop TR, Bicknell JE, Bernard H, Basrur S, Barclay MVL, Barclay H, Atton G, Ancrenaz M, Aldridge DC, Daniel OZ, Reynolds G, Banks-Leite Cet al., 2024,

    Thresholds for adding degraded tropical forest to the conservation estate.

    , Nature, Vol: 631, Pages: 808-813

    Logged and disturbed forests are often viewed as degraded and depauperate environments compared with primary forest. However, they are dynamic ecosystems1 that provide refugia for large amounts of biodiversity2,3, so we cannot afford to underestimate their conservation value4. Here we present empirically defined thresholds for categorizing the conservation value of logged forests, using one of the most comprehensive assessments of taxon responses to habitat degradation in any tropical forest environment. We analysed the impact of logging intensity on the individual occurrence patterns of 1,681 taxa belonging to 86 taxonomic orders and 126 functional groups in Sabah, Malaysia. Our results demonstrate the existence of two conservation-relevant thresholds. First, lightly logged forests (<29% biomass removal) retain high conservation value and a largely intact functional composition, and are therefore likely to recover their pre-logging values if allowed to undergo natural regeneration. Second, the most extreme impacts occur in heavily degraded forests with more than two-thirds (>68%) of their biomass removed, and these are likely to require more expensive measures to recover their biodiversity value. Overall, our data confirm that primary forests are irreplaceable5, but they also reinforce the message that logged forests retain considerable conservation value that should not be overlooked.

  • Journal article
    Dunning J, Sanchez-Tojar A, Girndt A, Burke T, Hsu Y-H, Nakagawa S, Winney I, Schroeder Jet al., 2024,

    Extrapair paternity alongside social reproduction increases male lifetime fitness

    , Animal Behaviour, Vol: 213, Pages: 117-123, ISSN: 0003-3472

    Within breeding years, male birds vary in their reproductive strategy. While some maintain monogamy with a social partner, others also engage with extrapair partners, while others forgo monogamy altogether in favour of exclusively seeking extrapair paternity. Although theory predicts that extrapair paternity is beneficial to males, which sire extrapair offspring without investing in costly parental care, empirical examples from wild populations are sparse. We used 17 years of data from a closed population of house sparrows, Passer domesticus, with a complete genetic pedigree, to test the hypothesis that extrapair paternity increases male lifetime reproductive success. We compared a mixed strategy of within-pair (or social) and extrapair paternity with total genetic monogamy and total extrapair paternity. We demonstrate that males who combine within-pair and extrapair paternity have increased reproductive success against the other two groups. Our results also suggest that males that exclusively seek extrapair paternity have the lowest lifetime fitness. Overall, we provide an empirical demonstration of the theory, showing that where males can sire extrapair offspring alongside within-pair offspring, extrapair paternity is beneficial to male lifetime fitness.

  • Journal article
    Howes B, Gonzalez-Suarez M, Banks-Leite C, Bellotto-Trigo FC, Betts MGet al., 2024,

    A global latitudinal gradient in the proportion of terrestrial vertebrate forest species

    , GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY, Vol: 33, ISSN: 1466-822X
  • Journal article
    Saranholi BH, Franca FM, Vogler AP, Barlow J, de Mello FZV, Maldaner ME, Carvalho E, Gestich CC, Howes B, Banks-Leite C, Galetti PMet al., 2024,

    Testing and optimizing metabarcoding of iDNA from dung beetles to sample mammals in the hyperdiverse Neotropics

    , MOLECULAR ECOLOGY RESOURCES, Vol: 24, ISSN: 1755-098X

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