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Journal articleLittle K, Vitali R, Belcher CM, et al., 2025,
Priority research directions for wildfire science: views from a historically fire-prone and an emerging fire-prone country
, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol: 380, ISSN: 0962-8436Fire regimes are changing across the globe, with new wildfire behaviour phenomena and increasing impacts felt, especially in ecosystems without clear adaptations to wildfire. These trends pose significant challenges to the scientific community in understanding and communicating these changes and their implications, particularly where we lack underlying scientific evidence to inform decision-making. Here, we present a perspective on priority directions for wildfire science research—through the lens of academic and government wildfire scientists from a historically wildfire-prone (USA) and emerging wildfire-prone (UK) country. Key topic areas outlined during a series of workshops in 2023 were as follows: (A) understanding and predicting fire occurrence, fire behaviour and fire impacts; (B) increasing human and ecosystem resilience to fire; and (C) understanding the atmospheric and climate impacts of fire. Participants agreed on focused research questions that were seen as priority scientific research gaps. Fire behaviour was identified as a central connecting theme that would allow critical advances to be made across all topic areas. These findings provide one group of perspectives to feed into a more transdisciplinary outline of wildfire research priorities across the diversity of knowledge bases and perspectives that are critical in addressing wildfire research challenges under changing fire regimes.
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Journal articleBeth A, Galand M, Modolo R, et al., 2025,
Ionosphere of Ganymede: Galileo observations versus test particle simulation
, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol: 538, Pages: 2483-2507, ISSN: 0035-8711In this paper, we model the plasma environment of Ganymede by means of a collisionless test particle simulation. By couplingthe outputs from a Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) simulation of Ganymede’s exosphere (i.e. number density profiles ofneutral species such as H, H2, O, HO, H2O, O2 for which we provide parametrization) with those of a MagnetoHydroDynamicsimulation of the interaction between Ganymede and the Jovian plasma (i.e. electric and magnetic fields), we perform acomparison between simulated ion plasma densities and ion energy spectra with those observed in situ during six close flybys ofGanymede by the Galileo spacecraft. We find that not only our test particle simulation sometimes can well reproduce the in situion number density measurement, but also the dominant ion species during these flybys are H+2 , O+2 , and occasionally H2O+.Although the observed ion energy spectra cannot be reproduced exactly, the simulated ion energy spectra exhibit similar trendsto those observed near the closest approach and near the magnetopause crossings but at lower energies. We show that the neutralexosphere plays an important role in supplying plasma to Ganymede’s magnetized environment and that additional mechanismsmay be at play to energize/accelerate newborn ions from the neutral exosphere.
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Journal articleDeca J, Divin A, Stephenson P, et al., 2025,
A fully kinetic perspective on weakly active comets: asymmetric outgassing
, Planetary and Space Science, Vol: 258, ISSN: 0032-0633The European Space Agency’s Rosetta mission measured the complex plasma environment surrounding comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko for more than two years. In this work, the collisionless dynamics of the plasma interaction during the comet’s weakly outgassing phases is investigated through a fully kinetic semi-implicit particle-in-cell approach. The effects of an asymmetric outgassing profile with respect to the upstream plasma conditions are compared with a spherically symmetric Haser model. The three-dimensional shape of the plasma density and the parallel acceleration potential are used as primary measures. It is found that the four-fluid coupled system is not majorly distorted. The different components of the potential structure can be associated with the large-scale behavior and density profiles of the four simulated plasma species. The implications for the acceleration and cooling of electrons within the cometary plasma environment are identified by contrasting the differences in the shape of the acceleration potential between the distinct asymmetric outgassing models. The analysis provides a detailed overview that can help interpret past Rosetta plasma measurements and could be key to help disentangle the physical drivers active in the plasma environment of comets visited by future exploration missions.
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Journal articleMooney MK, Milan SE, Lester M, et al., 2025,
Cluster observations of plasma in the high latitude magnetotail associated with cusp‐aligned arcs
, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol: 130, ISSN: 2169-9380During periods of northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), the magnetospheric structureand dynamics are dramatically different compared to the southward IMF case. Previous studies using bothobservations and simulations have shown that under northward IMF the magnetotail becomes dominated byclosed magnetic flux and associated trapped particle populations. In this study, we analyze three intervals ofplasma observed in the high latitude magnetotail during a period of prolonged northward IMF, coinciding withobservations of cusp‐aligned arcs in the polar region. We observe that the plasma is typically observed by all 4Cluster spacecraft near simultaneously and has some substructure observed on length scales of 0.5–1.5 RE. Theplasma characteristics in each of the three intervals studied are similar. The ion and electron densities are on theorder of 10− 1–100 cm− 3. The electron energies typically vary between 102 and 103 eV. The ion energies arehigher compared to the electron energies and range between 102 and 104 eV. The ion temperatures are on theorder of 5–18 MK. The speed of the plasma crossing the Cluster spacecraft is between 1 and 10 kms− 1. In oneinterval Cluster observes distinctly different but adjacent plasma populations. We suggest these plasmapopulations are on interleaving flux tubes and may present supporting evidence for dual lobe reconnectionacting to trap plasma within the magnetosphere and resulting cusp‐aligned arc formation
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Journal articleKim H, Kang SM, Pendergrass AG, et al., 2025,
Higher precipitation in East Asia and western United States expected with future Southern Ocean warming
, Nature Geoscience, Vol: 18, Pages: 313-321, ISSN: 1752-0894Precipitation over East Asia and the western United States is projected to increase as a result of global warming, although substantial uncertainties persist regarding the magnitude. A key factor driving these uncertainties is the tropical surface warming pattern, yet the mechanisms behind both this warming pattern and the resulting regional precipitation changes remain elusive. Here we use a set of climate model experiments to argue that these changes are partly driven by global teleconnection from the Southern Ocean, which rapidly absorbs anthropogenic heat but releases it with a delay of decades to a century. We show that the delayed Southern Ocean warming contributes to broad tropical ocean warming with an El Niño-like pattern, enhancing precipitation during summer in East Asia and winter in the western United States. The atmospheric teleconnections from the tropical ocean link the Southern Ocean warming to the Northern Hemisphere regional wetting. Southern Hemisphere low clouds are a key regulator of this teleconnection, partly explaining the projected uncertainty of regional precipitation. The documented teleconnection has practical implications: even if climate mitigation reduces carbon dioxide levels, the delayed Southern Ocean warming will sustain a wetter East Asia and western United States for decades to centuries.
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Conference paperLee D, Ceppi P, 2025,
Hydrological sensitivity affected by tropical tropospheric stability
<jats:p>Climate forcers perturb the energy amount inside the Earth, and atmospheric interactions in the troposphere sequentially vary to pursue the new stable state in the given energy budget. The varied energy amount of longwave, shortwave, and sensible heat flux in the atmosphere is balanced with latent heat flux, equivalent to the changes in precipitation in the global mean sense. For example, rising temperature emits more longwave radiation from the atmosphere (longwave cooling, LWC), and it allows more energy budget room for latent heat flux (LHF) heating, which explains enhanced precipitation.Although previous studies argued hydrological sensitivity as the linearized scale of precipitation change per the global mean temperature change, this study confirms that tropical tropospheric stability has additionally affected hydrological sensitivity over the decades. Our results reveal that tropical ocean temperature patterns correlate statistically with the stability index. The numerically simplified term of this stability effect improves the prediction skills of the theoretical equation for the global mean precipitation change under scenarios with various forcing conditions.&#160; Lastly, we discuss the possible impacts of recent ocean patterns and the tropical tropospheric stability phase on precipitation by comparing the observed data and climate models&#8217; simulations, which are forced by the observed sea surface temperature.</jats:p>
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Journal articleFujita R, Graven H, Zazzeri G, et al., 2025,
Global Fossil Methane Emissions Constrained by Multi-Isotopic Atmospheric Methane Histories
, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, Vol: 130, ISSN: 2169-897X- Cite
- Citations: 2
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Journal articleSimpson IR, Shaw TA, Ceppi P, et al., 2025,
Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations
, Science Advances, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2375-2548Anthropogenically forced climate change signals are emerging from the noise of internal variability in observations, and the impacts on society are growing. For decades, Climate or Earth System Models have been predicting how these climate change signals will unfold. While challenges remain, given the growing forced trends and the lengthening observational record, the climate science community is now in a position to confront the signals, as represented by historical trends, in models with observations. This review covers the state of the science on the ability of models to represent historical trends in the climate system. It also outlines robust procedures that should be used when comparing modeled and observed trends and how to move beyond quantification into understanding. Finally, this review discusses cutting-edge methods for identifying sources of discrepancies and the importance of future confrontations.
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Journal articleDriver O, Stettler MEJ, Gryspeerdt E, 2025,
Factors limiting contrail detection in satellite imagery
, Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, ISSN: 1867-1381 -
Journal articleMasters A, Modolo R, Roussos E, et al., 2025,
Magnetosphere and plasma science with the Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer
, Space Science Reviews, Vol: 221, ISSN: 0038-6308The Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer (JUICE) is a European Space Agency mission to explore Jupiter and its three icy Galilean moons: Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto. Numerous JUICE investigations concern the magnetised space environments containing low-density populations of charged particles that surround each of these bodies. In the case of both Jupiter and Ganymede, the magnetic field generated internally produces a surrounding volume of space known as a magnetosphere. All these regions are natural laboratories where we can test and further our understanding of how such systems work, and improved knowledge of the environments around the moons of interest is important for probing sub-surface oceans that may be habitable. Here we review the magnetosphere and plasma science that will be enabled by JUICE from arrival at Jupiter in July 2031. We focus on the specific topics where the mission will push forward the boundaries of our understanding through a combination of the spacecraft trajectory through the system and the measurements that will be made by its suite of scientific instruments. Advances during the initial orbits around Jupiter will include construction of a comprehensive picture of the poorly understood region of Jupiter’s magnetosphere where rigid plasma rotation with the planet breaks down, and new perspectives on how Jupiter’s magnetosphere interacts with both Europa and Callisto. The later orbits around Ganymede will dramatically improve knowledge of this moon’s smaller magnetosphere embedded within the larger magnetosphere of Jupiter. We conclude by outlining the high-level operational strategy that will support this broad science return.
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Journal articleLee D, Sparrow SN, Willeit M, et al., 2025,
Quantifying CO₂ and non‐CO₂ contributions to climate change under 1.5°C and 2°C adaptive emission scenarios
, Earth's Future, Vol: 13, ISSN: 2328-4277The individual contributions of various human-induced forcings under scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement targets are highly uncertain. To quantify this uncertainty, we analyze three types of models with physical parameter perturbed large ensembles under global warming levels of 1.5 and 2.0°C. The scenarios use adaptive CO2 emissions, while non-CO2 emissions are prescribed. The residual emission budgets in the scenarios are measured in terms of CO2 forcing equivalent (CO2-fe). Our simulations quantify approximately 0.8 (0.2–1.3 for a 90% confidence interval) and 1.9 (0.9–3.0) TtCO2-fe for the 1.5 and 2.0°C targets by the end of the 21st century. About 37.5% (73.7%) of the budget for 1.5°C (2.0°C) originates from the CO2 emission pathways, highlighting the importance of non-CO2 forcings. Aerosols dominate the uncertainty in non-CO2 contributions to global responses in both temperature and precipitation. Our modeling results underline the need to constrain the response to each climate forcing, particularly aerosol, to build an accurate mitigation and adaptation plan under the pledges of the Paris Agreement. Moreover, we demonstrate robust differences in global and regional temperature and precipitation responses between the higher and lower CO2 emission scenarios, highlighting the significance of carbon neutrality.
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Journal articleLambert FH, Allan RP, Behrangi A, et al., 2025,
Changes in the regional water cycle and their impact on societies
, WIREs Climate Change, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1757-7780Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, P − E. This article examines how climate change-driven re-cent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model predictions are in broad agreement with observations, at continental scales and below models predict large ranges of possible future P − E and runoff especially at the scale of individual river catchments and for shorter timescale subseasonal floods and droughts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the occurrence and severity of floods will increase and that of droughts may increase, possibly compounded by human-driven non-climatic changes such as changes in land use, dam water impoundment, irrigation and extraction of groundwater. Contemporary assessments predict that increases in 21stcentury human water extraction in many highly-populated regions are unlikely to be sustainable given projections of future P − E. To reduce uncertainty in future predictions, there is an urgent need to improve modeling of atmospheric, land surface and human processes and how these components are coupled. This should be supported by maintaining the observing network and expanding it to improve measurements of land surface, oceanic and atmospheric variables. This includes the development of satellite observations stable over multiple decades and suitable for building reanalysis datasets appropriate for model evaluation.
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Journal articleTrotta D, Dimmock A, Hietala H, et al., 2025,
An Overview of Solar Orbiter Observations of Interplanetary Shocks in Solar Cycle 25
, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL SUPPLEMENT SERIES, Vol: 277, ISSN: 0067-0049- Cite
- Citations: 5
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Journal articleMuro GD, Cohen CMS, Xu Z, et al., 2025,
Radial Dependence of Ion Fluences in the 2023 July 17 Solar Energetic Particle Event from Parker Solar Probe to STEREO and ACE
, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 981, ISSN: 0004-637X- Cite
- Citations: 1
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Journal articleDrake JF, Antiochos SK, Bale SD, et al., 2025,
Magnetic Reconnection in Solar Flares and the Near-Sun Solar Wind
, SPACE SCIENCE REVIEWS, Vol: 221, ISSN: 0038-6308- Cite
- Citations: 2
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Journal articleGrimmich N, Pöppelwerth A, Archer MO, et al., 2025,
Investigation of the occurrence of significant deviations in the magnetopause location: solar-wind and foreshock effects
, Annales Geophysicae: atmospheres, hydrospheres and space sciences, Vol: 43, Pages: 151-173, ISSN: 0992-7689Common magnetopause models can predict the location of the magnetopause with respect to upstream conditions from different sets of input parameters, including solar-wind pressure and the interplanetary magnetic field. However, recent studies have shown that some effects of upstream conditions may still be poorly understood since deviations between models and in situ observations beyond the expected scatter due to constant magnetopause motion are quite common. Using data from the three most recent multi-spacecraft missions to near-Earth space (Cluster, THEMIS, and MMS), we investigate the occurrence of these large deviations in observed magnetopause crossings from common empirical models. By comparing the results from different models, we find that the occurrence of these events appears to be model independent, suggesting that some physical processes may be missing from the models. To find these processes, we test whether the deviant magnetopause crossings are statistically associated with foreshocks and/or different solar-wind types and show that, in at least 40 % of cases, the foreshock can be responsible for the large deviations in the magnetopause's location. In the case where the foreshock is unlikely to be responsible, two distinct classes of solar wind are found to occur more frequently in association with the occurrence of magnetopause deviations: the “fast” solar wind and the solar-wind plasma associated with transients such as interplanetary coronal mass ejections. Therefore, the plasma conditions associated with these solar-wind classes could be responsible for the occurrence of deviant magnetopause observations. Our results may help to develop new and more accurate models of the magnetopause, which will be needed, for example, to accurately interpret the results of the upcoming Solar Wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer (SMILE) mission.
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Journal articleSharan S, Dougherty M, Masters A, et al., 2025,
Viability of the early JUICE flyby trajectories to confirm ocean existence at Ganymede
, The Planetary Science Journal, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2632-3338Ganymede is the largest moon in our solar system, and unique in producing its own magnetic field, as well as possibly possessing a subsurface ocean. The data analysis from the Galileo spacecraft provided two models for the internal field—a dipole and quadrupole model or a dipole and induction model. The latter model is preferred due to the number of parameters being less than the former, given that the model discrepancy with respect to the measurements is similar for both. While the recently launched JUpiter ICy moons Explorer (JUICE) mission will focus on Ganymede in its orbital phase providing an in-depth analysis, there are flybys initially around the moon that can be used for internal field studies. We focus on the first three close flybys of the mission in order to assess how effective the expected observation would be for distinguishing between the induction and quadrupole signals and confirm the existence of an ocean. We begin with an analysis of the JUICE and Galileo trajectories in different reference frames and predict the induction signal using the time varying field of Jupiter. A comparison between the two signatures for Galileo flybys agrees with previous results indicating induction to be present. Finally, we display and discuss the feasibility and importance of the three JUICE flybys to observe the induction field and hence confirm the ocean.
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Journal articleLiu Y-H, Hesse M, Genestreti K, et al., 2025,
Ohm's law, the reconnection rate, and energy conversion in collisionless magnetic reconnection
, Space Science Reviews, Vol: 221, ISSN: 0038-6308Magnetic reconnection is a ubiquitous plasma process that transforms magnetic energy into particle energy during eruptive events throughout the universe. Reconnection not only converts energy during solar flares and geomagnetic substorms that drive space weather near Earth, but it may also play critical roles in the high energy emissions from the magnetospheres of neutron stars and black holes. In this review article, we focus on collisionless plasmas that are most relevant to reconnection in many space and astrophysical plasmas. Guided by first-principles kinetic simulations and spaceborne in-situ observations, we highlight the most recent progress in understanding this fundamental plasma process. We start by discussing the non-ideal electric field in the generalized Ohm’s law that breaks the frozen-in flux condition in ideal magnetohydrodynamics and allows magnetic reconnection to occur. We point out that this same reconnection electric field also plays an important role in sustaining the current and pressure in the current sheet and then discuss the determination of its magnitude (i.e., the reconnection rate), based on force balance and energy conservation. This approach to determining the reconnection rate is applied to kinetic current sheets with a wide variety of magnetic geometries, parameters, and background conditions. We also briefly review the key diagnostics and modeling of energy conversion around the reconnection diffusion region, seeking insights from recently developed theories. Finally, future prospects and open questions are discussed.
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Journal articleRivera YJ, Badman ST, Verniero JL, et al., 2025,
Differentiating the Acceleration Mechanisms in the Slow and Alfvénic Slow Solar Wind
, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 980, ISSN: 0004-637X- Cite
- Citations: 6
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Journal articleMitchell JG, Christian ER, de Nolfo GA, et al., 2025,
Delay of Near-relativistic Electrons with Respect to Type III Radio Bursts throughout the Inner Heliosphere
, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 980, ISSN: 0004-637X- Cite
- Citations: 3
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Journal articlePanditharatne S, Brindley H, Cox C, et al., 2025,
Retrievals of water vapour and temperature exploiting the far-infrared: application to aircraft observations in preparation for the FORUM mission
, Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, Vol: 18, Pages: 717-735, ISSN: 1867-1381We present the extension of the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL) Infrared Microwave Sounding (IMS) optimal estimation retrieval scheme to include the use of far-infrared channels in preparation for the upcoming Far-infrared Outgoing Radiation Understanding and Monitoring (FORUM) mission. The IMS code has been previously applied to mid-infrared spectral radiances measured by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Instrument (IASI) to retrieve temperature and water vapour. Given this, the evolution and evaluation of the extended scheme is performed in two steps. First, clear-sky retrievals of temperature and water vapour are performed on IASI and FORUM simulations. Comparable retrieval biases are observed for retrievals of temperature and water vapour; however, there is an increase of ∼ 1 degree of freedom for water vapour and temperature for the FORUM configuration. Secondly, radiances observed from an aircraft flight in the upper troposphere are modified to match the FORUM spectral characteristics. Retrievals from these radiances using the modified code show a strong agreement with contemporaneous in situ measurements of the atmospheric state, reducing the root-mean-square error (RMSE) by 18 % for water vapour from the a priori, giving confidence in its performance. The extended IMS scheme is now available for use on FORUM observations and can be easily adapted to other far- and mid-infrared instrument configurations.
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Journal articleAmes F, Ferreira D, Czaja A, et al., 2025,
Ocean stratification impedes particulate transport to the plumes of Enceladus
, Nature Communications, ISSN: 2041-1723 -
Journal articleChitta LP, Huang Z, D'Amicis R, et al., 2025,
Coronal hole picoflare jets are progenitors of both fast and Alfvénic slow solar wind
, ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS, Vol: 694, ISSN: 0004-6361- Cite
- Citations: 4
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Journal articleKokkola H, Tonttila J, Calderón SM, et al., 2025,
Model analysis of biases in the satellite-diagnosed aerosol effect on the cloud liquid water path
, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol: 25, Pages: 1533-1543, ISSN: 1680-7316The response in cloud water content to changes in cloud condensation nuclei remains one of the major uncertainties in determining how aerosols can perturb cloud properties. In this study, we used an ensemble of large eddy simulations of marine stratocumulus clouds to investigate the correlation between cloud liquid water path (LWP) and the amount of cloud condensation nuclei. We compare this correlation directly from the model to the correlation derived using equations which are used to retrieve liquid water path from satellite observations. Our comparison shows that spatial variability in cloud properties and instrumental noise in satellite retrievals of cloud optical depth and cloud effective radii results in bias in the satellite-derived liquid water path. In-depth investigation of high-resolution model data shows that in large part of a cloud, the assumption of adiabaticity does not hold, which results in a similar bias in the LWP–CDNC (cloud droplet number concentration) relationship as seen in satellite data. In addition, our analysis shows a significant positive bias of between 18 % and 40 % in satellite-derived cloud droplet number concentration. However, for the individual ensemble members, the correlation between the cloud condensation nuclei and the mean of the liquid water path was very similar between the methods. This suggests that if cloud cases are carefully chosen for similar meteorological conditions and it is ensured that cloud condensation nuclei concentrations are well-defined, changes in liquid water can be confidently determined using satellite data.
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Journal articleWahlund J-E, Bergman JES, Ahlen L, et al., 2025,
The Radio & Plasma Wave Investigation (RPWI) for the JUpiter ICy moons Explorer (JUICE)
, Space Science Reviews, Vol: 221, ISSN: 0038-6308The Radio & Plasma Wave Investigation (RPWI) onboard the ESA JUpiter ICy moons Explorer (JUICE) is described in detail. The RPWI provides an elaborate set of state-of-the-art electromagnetic fields and cold plasma instrumentation, including active sounding with the mutual impedance and Langmuir probe sweep techniques, where several different types of sensors will sample the thermal plasma properties, including electron and ion densities, electron temperature, plasma drift speed, the near DC electric fields, and electric and magnetic signals from various types of phenomena, e.g., radio and plasma waves, electrostatic acceleration structures, induction fields etc. A full wave vector, waveform, polarization, and Poynting flux determination will be achieved. RPWI will enable characterization of the Jovian radio emissions (including goniopolarimetry) up to 45 MHz, has the capability to carry out passive radio sounding of the ionospheric densities of icy moons and employ passive sub-surface radar measurements of the icy crust of these moons. RPWI can also detect micrometeorite impacts, estimate dust charging, monitor the spacecraft potential as well as the integrated EUV flux. The sensors consist of four 10 cm diameter Langmuir probes each mounted on the tip of 3 m long booms, a triaxial search coil magnetometer and a triaxial radio antenna system both mounted on the 10.6 m long MAG boom, each with radiation resistant pre-amplifiers near the sensors. There are three receiver boards, two Digital Processing Units (DPU) and two Low Voltage Power Supply (LVPS) boards in a box within a radiation vault at the centre of the JUICE spacecraft. Together, the integrated RPWI system can carry out an ambitious planetary science investigation in and around the Galilean icy moons and the Jovian space environment. Some of the most important science objectives and instrument capabilities are described here. RPWI focuses, apart from cold plasma studies, on the understanding of how, thr
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Journal articleKramer E, Koller F, Suni J, et al., 2025,
Jets Downstream of Collisionless Shocks: Recent Discoveries and Challenges
, SPACE SCIENCE REVIEWS, Vol: 221, ISSN: 0038-6308- Cite
- Citations: 9
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Journal articleMcGraw Z, Polvani LM, Gasparini B, et al., 2025,
The Cloud Radiative Response to Surface Warming Weakens Hydrological Sensitivity
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 52, ISSN: 0094-8276<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Precipitation is expected to increase in a warmer global climate, yet how sensitive precipitation is to warming depends on poorly constrained cloud radiative processes. Clouds respond to surface warming in ways that alter the atmosphere's ability to radiatively cool and hence form precipitation. Here we examine the links between cloud responses to warming, atmospheric radiative fluxes, and hydrological sensitivity in AMIP6 simulations. The clearest impacts come from high clouds, which reduce atmospheric radiative cooling as they rise in altitude in response to surface warming. Using cloud locking, we demonstrate that high cloud radiative changes weaken Earth's hydrological sensitivity to surface warming. The total impact of cloud radiative effects on hydrological sensitivity is halved by interactions between cloud and clear‐sky radiative effects, yet is sufficiently large to be a major source of uncertainty in hydrological sensitivity.</jats:p>
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Journal articleFlegrova M, Brindley H, 2025,
Two Decades of Fire-Induced Albedo Change and Associated Short-Wave Radiative Effect Over Sub-Saharan Africa
, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, Vol: 130, ISSN: 2169-897X -
Journal articlePayne DS, Swisdak M, Eastwood JP, et al., 2025,
In-situ observations of the magnetothermodynamic evolution of electron-only reconnection
, COMMUNICATIONS PHYSICS, Vol: 8, ISSN: 2399-3650- Cite
- Citations: 4
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Journal articleD'Amicis R, Velli M, Panasenco O, et al., 2025,
On Alfvenic turbulence of solar wind streams observed by Solar Orbiter during March 2022 perihelion and their source regions
, ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS, Vol: 693, ISSN: 0004-6361- Cite
- Citations: 3
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