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Journal articleDean TR, Abbott TH, Engberg Z, et al., 2025,
Impact of forecast stability on navigational contrail avoidance
, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH: INFRASTRUCTURE AND SUSTAINABILITY, Vol: 5 -
Journal articleGavasso-Rita YL, Zaerpour M, Abdelmoaty H, et al., 2025,
Rainfed spring canola yield response to changing heat and water stress in the Canadian Prairie region
, Agricultural Water Management, Vol: 322, ISSN: 0378-3774Canola is a significant crop in Canadian agriculture and the economy. However, Canada's average temperatures have risen rapidly over the past eight decades, changing temperature patterns and water availability for canola production. This study aims to explore the impacts of air temperature and soil water availability on spring canola production from 2025 to 2050. Accordingly, this study introduces DSSAT calibration and simulation of the current hybrid InVigor®L340PC, integrating the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Leveraging DSSAT-Pythia, gridded simulations capture spatial variability in water and temperature stress interactions, driven by a large ensemble of climate models. The analysis reveals how precipitation and temperature changes jointly influence spring canola development. Yield projections under these conditions provide critical insights into the future viability of rainfed spring canola and inform adaptation strategies for growers and policymakers. Findings demonstrate negative impacts on exclusively rainfed spring canola production in the Canadian Prairie Region under diverse climate scenarios from 2025 to 2050. The main canola growing ecozone (Aspen Parkland) is expected to have higher air temperatures and lower soil water content if greenhouse gas emissions keep rising. An average increase of 1.5°C in air temperature and 0.025 in the water stress factor indices may result in annual yield reductions of 203 ± 4.3 and 121 ± 13.6 kg ha<sup>−1</sup>, in Lake Manitoba Plain and Aspen Parkland ecoregions, respectively. Given that future canola production is expected to continue in the same ecoregions it is recommended that adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed and adopted to improve canola production conditions in these ecoregions.
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Journal articleAl Khalili U, Karmpadakis I, 2025,
Breaking occurrence and dissipation in shortcrested waves in finite water
, Coastal Engineering, Vol: 202, ISSN: 0378-3839The understanding of wave breaking has long been a critical concern for engineers and scientists. However, accurately identifying the onset of breaking and quantifying the associated energy dissipation remain significant challenges. To address this, the present study develops a novel methodology to identify breaking wave events in shortcrested seas in finite water depths. This is achieved through a unique dataset which couples laboratory and numerically-generated waves. The data reflect realistic sea-states used in engineering design and cover a wide range of conditions from mild to extreme. Using the proposed algorithm, key physical properties of breaking waves are examined. In particular, the probability of wave breaking and the associated wave energy dissipation are quantified to provide a statistical description of their behaviour. Complementarily, waves exhibiting significant nonlinear amplifications are also identified and modelled in a similar manner. This enables traditional wave distributions to be decomposed into more detailed distributions of breaking and non-breaking waves. These insights are combined to define a new model that predicts crest height statistics in intermediate water depths. This new mixture model is shown to reproduce experimental measurements with high accuracy, while also providing critical additional information about wave breaking.
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Journal articleWong HL, Palacios R, Gryspeerdt E, 2025,
rojak: A Python library and tool for aviation turbulence diagnostics
, Journal of Open Source Software, Vol: 10, Pages: 9282-9282 -
Journal articleLavergne A, Harrison SP, Atsawawaranunt K, et al., 2025,
Minimal impact of recent decline in C4 vegetation abundance on atmospheric carbon isotopic composition
, Communications Earth & Environment, ISSN: 2662-4435Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, climate, and land management influence the abundance and distribution of C3 and C4 plants, yet their impact on the global carbon cycle remains uncertain. Here, we use a parsimonious model of C3 and C4 plant distribution, based on optimality principles, combined with a simplified representation of the global carbon cycle, to assess how shifts in plant abundances driven by carbon dioxide and climate affect global gross primary production, land-based carbon isotope discrimination, and the isotopic composition of atmospheric carbon dioxide. We estimate that the proportion of C4 plants in total biomass declined from about 16% to 12% between 1982 and 2016, despite an increase in the abundance of C4 crops. This decline reflects the reduced competitive advantage of C4 photosynthesis in a carbon dioxide-enriched atmosphere. As a result, global gross primary production rose by approximately 16.5 ± 1.8 petagrams of carbon, and land-based carbon isotope discrimination increased by 0.017 ± 0.001‰ per year. Accounting for changes in C3 and C4 abundances reduces the difference between observed and modelled trends in atmospheric carbon isotope composition, but does not fully explain the observed decrease, pointing to additional, unaccounted drivers.
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Journal articleMarschalek J, van de Flierdt T, Siddoway C, et al., 2025,
Reconstructing Eocene Antarctic river drainage from provenance analysis of Amundsen Sea embayment sediments
, Science Advances, Vol: 50, ISSN: 2375-2548Sedimentary records can illuminate relationships between the climate, topography and glaciation of West Antarctica by revealing its Cenozoic topographic and paleoenvironmental history. Eocene fluvial drainage patterns have previously been inferred using geochemical provenance data from a ~44-34 Ma deltaic sandstone recovered from the Amundsen Sea Embayment. One interpretation holds that a low relief, low-lying West Antarctic landscape supported a >1500 km transcontinental river system. Alternatively, higher relief topography in central West Antarctica formed a drainage divide between the Ross and Amundsen seas. Here, zircon U-Pb data from Amundsen Sea Embayment sediments are examined alongside known regional bedrock provenance signatures, suggesting that all provenance indicators in the Eocene sandstone derive from West Antarctic rocks. This implies that a local river system flowed off a West Antarctic drainage divide, helping constrain the mid-late Eocene evolution of West Antarctic topography with implications for rifting history and the characteristics of sediments infilling interior basins.
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Journal articleVictor Ribeiro Amaral A, Sykulski A, Fielding S, et al., 2025,
Navigating challenges in spatio-temporal modelling of Antarctic krill abundance: addressing zero-inflated data and misaligned covariates
, Spatial Statistics, Vol: 70, ISSN: 2211-6753Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) are among the most abundant species on our planet and serve as a vital food source for many marine predators in the Southern Ocean. In this paper, we utilise statistical spatio-temporal methods to combine data from various sources and resolutions, aiming to model krill abundance. Our focus lies in fitting the model to a dataset comprising acoustic measurements of krill biomass. To achieve this, we integrate climate covariates obtained from satellite imagery and from drifting surface buoys (also known as drifters). Additionally, we use sparsely collected krill biomass data obtained from net fishing efforts (KRILLBASE) for validation. However, integrating these multiple heterogeneous data sources presents significant modelling challenges, including spatio-temporal misalignment and inflated zeros in the observed data. To address these challenges, we fit a Hurdle-Gamma model to jointly describe the occurrence of zeros and the krill biomass for the non-zero observations, while also accounting for misaligned and heterogeneous data sources, including drifters. Therefore, our work presents a comprehensive framework for analysing and predicting krill abundance in the Southern Ocean, leveraging information from various sources and formats. This is crucial due to the impact of krill fishing, as understanding their distribution is essential for informed management decisions and fishing regulations aimed at protecting the species.
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Journal articleHeon SP, Bernard H, Ewers RM, 2025,
Decomposition dynamics of an orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus morio) carcass in a tropical forest: implications for conservation practices
, Ecology and Evolution, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2045-7758Over the past decade, more than 600 rehabilitated Bornean Orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus morio) have been released into protected forests in Borneo. Releasing rehabilitant Bornean Orangutans into the wild is a standard conservation practice, yet monitoring postrelease survival remains a challenge. Limited data exist on post release survival, with many individuals classified as “missing but presumed dead” due to the absence of a carcass for confirmation. Detecting carcasses in tropical forests is particularly difficult due to dense vegetation and the narrow time frame for observing remains before complete decomposition or scavenger removal. Here, we report the first documented observation of a wild adult female Bornean Orangutan carcass decomposing process in the Danum Valley Conservation Area, Malaysian Borneo, on 21 May 2023. The approximately 30 kg carcass was monitored using camera traps and field observations. Decomposition was assessed using Payne's (1965) decomposition framework, the Total Body Score (TBS) system, and Accumulated Degree Days (ADD) to evaluate the influence of ambient temperature on decay. Decomposition progressed to the dry-remains stage within 6 days, primarily driven by vertebrate scavengers such as the Asian water monitor lizard (Varanus salvator) and blow flies (Calliphoridae). This rapid decomposition rate challenges existing knowledge on the rate of decomposition of medium-sized carcasses (> 10 kg) and suggests that the common practice of weekly monitoring for post-release orangutans may be insufficient. Understanding decomposition processes and scavenger activity in tropical forests can improve carcass detection, refine mortality estimates for released Orangutans and other endangered species, and enhance conservation strategies for this critically endangered primate.
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Journal articleMacdonald L, Nicholls N, Caryl F, et al., 2025,
Is objectively measured exposure to built and natural environment associated with population-level cardiovascular disease mortality in Great Britain?
, SSM - Population Health, Vol: 32, ISSN: 2352-8273BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) causes one-third of global mortality, with modifiable risk factors such as unhealthy diet, sedentary behaviour, tobacco/alcohol use contributing to 80 % of CVD deaths. The built environment (BE) can influence CVD risk indirectly by shaping health behaviours and directly through environmental exposures like air pollution. While research has established connections between isolated environmental features and CVD, this study addresses significant research gaps in understanding how multiple BE characteristics influence CVD mortality across socioeconomic contexts, aiming to inform neighbourhood design to reduce both CVD and inequalities.MethodsWe modelled, for small areas across GB, tree cover, air pollution, walkability, densities of health-detrimental amenities (‘bads’) (e.g. fast-food outlets) and health-promoting amenities (‘goods’) (e.g. gyms), and income deprivation. Generalised linear models were used to assess associations between small area features and (sex-stratified) age-standardised CVD mortality rates (i.e. ICD-10 codes I00–I99), controlling for deprivation, urban-rural, country, and local authority. Combined models (i.e. models mutually adjusted for all BE features) identified the unique contribution of each feature while accounting for those that ‘co-located’. Interaction analysis was performed to examine variations by income deprivation.ResultsA slight increase in CVD mortality risk was associated with greater ‘goods’ densities (female mortality ratio (MR):1.005 (CIs:1.003–1.007), p < 0.001, male MR:1.005 (CIs:1.003–1.006), p < 0.001), and higher air pollution (female MR:1.006 (CIs:1.003–1.009), p < 0.001, male MR:1.008 (CIs:1.005–1.009), p < 0.001). A slight decrease in CVD mortality was associated with higher walkability for females (MR:0.996 (CIs:0.992–0.999), p = 0.034) and tree cover for males (MR:0.999 (CIs:0.998&nd
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Journal articleEngström E, Prasow-Emond M, Howe C, et al., 2025,
The sustainability benefits and limitations of green infrastructure in vineyards – exploring the experiences of winegrowers
, International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, Vol: 23, ISSN: 1473-5903Winegrowing is traditionally associated with intensive management practices and there is a need for sustainability in the sector. Green infrastructure, encompassing non-vine vegetation, water bodies, and other human-made structures, can contribute to this sustainability from a multi-dimensional viewpoint. In the United Kingdom (UK), viticulture is one of the fastest growing agricultural sectors and simultaneously, agri-environmental schemes are encouraging the integration of green infrastructure in agriculture. In this study, we explored the sustainability impacts from green infrastructure in vineyards as experienced by English and Welsh winegrowers. We find that multiple sustainability benefits and limitations are experienced – pertaining to the environmental, economic, social, and cultural realms. Impacts are influenced by contextual factors, including vineyard management approaches, the placement of green infrastructures, and the person who is having the experience. Participants in this study also conveyed various assumptions, expectations, and values in relation to green infrastructure, as well as perspectives on sustainability, which may have come to shape their experiences. Our findings identify opportunities to increase the understanding of the effects of green infrastructures in UK winegrowing, and to effectively communicate this knowledge to winegrowers. Additionally, it could be valuable to provide additional support to winegrowers to manage challenges associated with green infrastructures.
This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.
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