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• Journal article
  Dai AZ, Gregory J, Ceppi P, 2026,

  Understanding the Climate Response to Different Vertical Patterns of Radiative Forcing

  , Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 53, ISSN: 0094-8276

  The dependence of climate response on the vertical structure of radiative forcing is studied using a set of idealized experiments, with horizontally uniform and vertically confined forcings. We find for a given effective forcing magnitude, higher-altitude forcing causes a smaller global warming, owing to more negative cloud feedback. We present novel evidence relating this altitude dependence to sea-surface temperature patterns and tropospheric static stability. The imposed instantaneous forcings are horizontally uniform, but higher-altitude forcings more effectively suppress convection in the tropical warm pool, producing a more positive effective (adjusted) surface forcing in that region. This gives rise, during the subsequent climate change, to greater warming contrast between the warm pool and rest of the globe, and hence to increase in low cloud amount. Our results show that to achieve accurate climate projections under anthropogenic forcings, it is important to correctly represent the vertical structures of the applied radiative forcing.

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• Journal article
  Zhong Q, Gan J, Tu S, Toumi R, Chan JCLet al., 2026,

  Global increase in rain rate of tropical cyclones prior to landfall.

  , Nat Commun, Vol: 17

  Most studies on tropical cyclone (TC) rain rate focus on long-term variability, yet the short-term (days or shorter) variations across the TC lifecycle, with a particular focus on the period before landfall, are most critical because they strongly influence flood risk. Using satellite data, we show that, globally, the mean rain rate of TCs increases by over 20% from 60 hours before landfall to the time of landfall. This increase occurs across hemispheres, ocean basins, intensity categories, and latitudes, although the magnitude varies. As a TC approaches the coast, land-sea thermal contrasts raise low-level humidity over land, while frictional differences enhance convergence, upward motion, and instability on the offshore side of the circulation. These conditions collectively promote increased convection and precipitation of TCs as they near landfall. Our findings critically strengthen the current understanding of TC precipitation dynamics and support more effective flood management.

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• Journal article
  Roca Barcelo A, Schneider R, Pirani M, Sebastianelli A, Piel F, Vineis P, Nardocci AC, Fecht Det al., 2026,

  A satellite based machine learning approach for estimating high resolution daily average air temperature in a megacity in Brazil

  , Scientific Reports, ISSN: 2045-2322
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• Journal article
  Bose I, Hadida G, Green R, Murray KA, Part C, Kovats Set al., 2026,

  Rainfall and water-related diseases, malnutrition and mortality in Low- and Middle- Income Countries: a systematic review of the epidemiological evidence

  , Heliyon, Vol: 12

  Background Climate change is altering rainfall patterns. Rainfall has been linked to numerous health outcomes, through the impacts on water quality and quantity, but the coherence and strength of evidence across outcomes remain unclear. Objectives Understand and evaluate the strength of evidence on associations between rainfall (both low and heavy events) and health outcomes in Low- and Middle- Income Countries (LMICs). Methods A systematic review of peer-reviewed epidemiological studies quantifying associations between rainfall and human health outcomes in LMIC populations was conducted. Seven databases were searched including MEDLINE and EMBASE. Study quality was evaluated using 9 modified criteria that were previously used to assess environmental epidemiology studies. The strength of evidence for each health outcome was assessed across rainfall exposures. Results Of 23,579 papers identified, 177 met the inclusion criteria. Health outcomes included diarrheal diseases (n = 119); malnutrition (n = 35); mortality (n = 21); helminth infections (n = 6), and eye infections (n = 4). There was moderately strong evidence for positive associations between both heavy and low rainfall and all-cause diarrhea. Evidence for undernutrition was mixed, with moderate evidence of a positive association with low rainfall. Despite sharing causal pathways, diarrheal disease and nutrition studies found contrasting results for heavy rainfall, likely due to differing study designs. Studies were heterogenous in design, rainfall exposure definitions, and lag times. Studies also often lacked a clear hypothesis. Discussion There is substantial evidence that rainfall affects health in LMICs through multiple pathways. Limitations in the data (often from cross-sectional surveys) and study designs, limit the strength of evidence for several health outcomes. Specifically, studies frequently used inappropriate exposures or lags to reflect the causal pathways. In future studies, efforts should be dir

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• Journal article
  Riley AI, Blangiardo M, Piel FB, Beddows A, Beevers S, Fuller GW, Agnew P, Pirani Met al., 2026,

  A Bayesian multisource fusion model for spatiotemporal PM₂.₅ in an urban setting

  , Environmetrics, Vol: 37, ISSN: 1180-4009

  Airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major public health concern in urban environments, where population density and emission sources exacerbate exposure risks. We present a novel Bayesian spatiotemporal fusion model to estimate monthly PM2.5 concentrations over Greater London (2014–2019) at 1 km resolution. The model integrates multiple PM2.5 data sources, including outputs from two atmospheric air quality dispersion models, and predictive variables, such as vegetation and satellite aerosol optical depth, while explicitly modeling a latent spatiotemporal field. Spatial misalignment of the data is addressed through a hierarchical fusion and spatial interpolation approach to predict across the entire area. Building on stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE) within the integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) framework, our method introduces spatially- and temporally-varying coefficients to flexibly calibrate datasets and capture fine-scale variability. Model performance and complexityare balanced using predictive metrics such as the predictive model choice criterion and thorough cross-validation. The best performing model shows excellent fit and robust predictive performance, enabling reliable high-resolution spatiotemporal mapping of PM2.5 concentrations with the associated uncertainty. Furthermore, the model outputs, including full posterior predictive distributions, can be used to map exceedance probabilities of regulatory thresholds, supporting air quality management and targetedinterventions in vulnerable urban areas, as well as providing refined exposure estimates of PM2.5 for epidemiological applications.

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• Journal article
  Dean TR, Abbott TH, Engberg Z, Masson N, Teoh R, Itcovitz JP, Stettler MEJ, Shapiro MLet al., 2025,

  Impact of forecast stability on navigational contrail avoidance

  , ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH: INFRASTRUCTURE AND SUSTAINABILITY, Vol: 5
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• Journal article
  Eiden E, Pritchard ME, Galetto F, Byrne PK, Ganesh I, Herrick R, Jessup KL, Johnson CL, King SD, Le Gall A, Mason PJ, Mueller Net al., 2025,

  Quantifying the Eruptive Flux on Venus With VenSAR Informed by Observations From Earth and Io

  , JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-PLANETS, Vol: 130, ISSN: 2169-9097
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• Journal article
  Jones G, Zhang Z, Clayton K, Lancastle L, Paschalis A, Waring Bet al., 2025,

  Utilizing Soil Centrifugation for Accurate Estimates of Carbon Dioxide Removal via Enhanced Rock Weathering

  , ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, Vol: 59, Pages: 27305-27315, ISSN: 0013-936X
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• Journal article
  Gavasso-Rita YL, Zaerpour M, Abdelmoaty H, Li Y, Elshorbagy A, Schuster-Wallace C, Paschalis A, Papalexiou SMet al., 2025,

  Rainfed spring canola yield response to changing heat and water stress in the Canadian Prairie region

  , AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT, Vol: 322, ISSN: 0378-3774
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• Journal article
  Keeping TR, Shepherd TG, Prentice IC, Van der Wiel K, Harrison SPet al., 2025,

  Influence of global climate modes on wildfire occurrence in the contiguous United States under recent and future climates

  , CLIMATE DYNAMICS, Vol: 64, ISSN: 0930-7575
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