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  • Journal article
    Tang X, Xu J, Zhang Y, Zhao H, Paluszny A, Wan X, Wang Zet al., 2023,

    The rock-forming minerals and macroscale mechanical properties of asteroid rocks

    , Engineering Geology, Vol: 321, ISSN: 0013-7952

    In the future, human activities in space, such as asteroid mining, will require the aid of geotechnical engineering. Rock samples obtained by sample-return missions via spacecraft and meteorite collection are usually rare, fragmented and arbitrarily shaped. These samples are difficult to be processed into standard cylinders required by traditionally macroscale testing methods (e.g., MTS tests), leading to the application of microscale Rock Mechanics Experiments (micro-RME) to derive the macroscale Young's modulus of these samples. Firstly, the performances of three upscaling methods were compared in the context of granitic samples, including the Voigt-Reuss-Hill (V-R–H) method, Mori-Tanaka (M-T) method and Accurate Grain-Based Model (AGBM). Additionally, the statistical errors of these three methodologies were quantified. Compared to V-R-H method and M-T method, the AGBM was found to be the most accurate. Secondly, the mechanical properties of rock-forming minerals and interphase in a Hammadah al Hamra 346 (HaH 346) asteroid meteorite were measured using micro-RME, which were used to generate AGBM. Lastly, the macroscale Young's modulus of the HaH 346 meteorite was estimated using AGBM based modeling. The present methodology is a potential candidate for investigating the mechanical property of unconventional rock samples during asteroid mining.

  • Journal article
    Williams RG, Ceppi P, Roussenov V, Katavouta A, Meijers AJSet al., 2023,

    The role of the Southern Ocean in the global climate response to carbon emissions.

    , Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci, Vol: 381

    The effect of the Southern Ocean on global climate change is assessed using Earth system model projections following an idealized 1% annual rise in atmospheric CO2. For this scenario, the Southern Ocean plays a significant role in sequestering heat and anthropogenic carbon, accounting for 40% ± 5% of heat uptake and 44% ± 2% of anthropogenic carbon uptake over the global ocean (with the Southern Ocean defined as south of 36°S). This Southern Ocean fraction of global heat uptake is however less than in historical scenarios with marked hemispheric contrasts in radiative forcing. For this idealized scenario, inter-model differences in global and Southern Ocean heat uptake are strongly affected by physical feedbacks, especially cloud feedbacks over the globe and surface albedo feedbacks from sea-ice loss in high latitudes, through the top-of-the-atmosphere energy balance. The ocean carbon response is similar in most models with carbon storage increasing from rising atmospheric CO2, but weakly decreasing from climate change with competing ventilation and biological contributions over the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean affects a global climate metric, the transient climate response to emissions, accounting for 28% of its thermal contribution through its physical climate feedbacks and heat uptake, and so affects inter-model differences in meeting warming targets. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

  • Journal article
    Li S, Zhang M, Piggott MD, 2023,

    End-to-end wind turbine wake modelling with deep graph representation learning

    , Applied Energy, Vol: 339, ISSN: 0306-2619

    Wind turbine wake modelling is of crucial importance to accurate resource assessment, to layout optimisation, and to the operational control of wind farms. This work proposes a surrogate model for the representation of wind turbine wakes based on a state-of-the-art graph representation learning method termed a graph neural network. The proposed end-to-end deep learning model operates directly on unstructured meshes and has been validated against high-fidelity data, demonstrating its ability to rapidly make accurate 3D flow field predictions for various inlet conditions and turbine yaw angles. The specific graph neural network model employed here is shown to generalise well to unseen data and is less sensitive to over-smoothing compared to common graph neural networks. A case study based upon a real world wind farm further demonstrates the capability of the proposed approach to predict farm scale power generation. Moreover, the proposed graph neural network framework is flexible and highly generic and as formulated here can be applied to any steady state computational fluid dynamics simulations on unstructured meshes.

  • Journal article
    Tan S, Wang H, Prentice IC, Yang K, Nóbrega RLB, Liu X, Wang Y, Yang Yet al., 2023,

    Towards a universal evapotranspiration model based on optimality principles

    , Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol: 336, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 0168-1923

    Natural resource management requires knowledge of terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET). Most existing numeric models for ET include multiple plant- or ecosystem-type specific parameters that require calibration. This is a significant source of uncertainty under changing environmental conditions. A novel ET model with no type−specific parameters was developed recently. Based on the coupling the diffusion (via stomata) of water and carbon dioxide (CO2), this model predicts canopy conductance based on environmental conditions using eco-evolutionary optimality principles that apply to all plant types. Transpiration (T) and ET are calculated from canopy conductance using the Penman-Monteith equation for T and a universal empirical function for the T:ET ratio. Here, the model is systematically evaluated at globally distributed eddy-covariance sites and river basins. Site-scale modelled ET agrees well with flux data (r = 0.81, root mean square error = 0.73 mm day–1 in 23,623 records) and modelled ET in 39 river basins agrees well with the ET estimated by monthly water budget using two runoff datasets (r = 0.62 and 0.66, respectively). Modelled global patterns of ET are consistent with existing global ET products. The model's universality, parsimony and accuracy combine to indicate a broad potential field of application in resource management and global change science.

  • Journal article
    Chamberlain RC, Fecht D, Davies B, Laverty AAet al., 2023,

    Health impacts of Low Emission and Congestion Charging Zones: a systematic review

    , The Lancet Public Health, ISSN: 2468-2667
  • Journal article
    Murray K, Saager E, Iwamura T, Jucker T, Murray Ket al., 2023,

    Deforestation for oil palm increases microclimate suitability for the development of the disease vector Aedes albopictus

    , Scientific Reports, ISSN: 2045-2322
  • Journal article
    Shadrick J, Rood D, Hurst M, Piggott M, Wilcken K, Seal Aet al., 2023,

    Constraints on long-term cliff retreat and intertidal weathering at weak rock coasts using cosmogenic ¹⁰Be, nearshore topography and numerical modelling

    , Earth Surface Dynamics, Vol: 11, Pages: 429-450, ISSN: 2196-6311

    The white chalk cliffs on the south coast of England are one of the most iconic coastlines in the world. Rock coasts located in a weak lithology, such as chalk, are likely to be most vulnerable to climate-change-triggered accelerations in cliff retreat rates. In order to make future forecasts of cliff retreat rates as a response to climate change, we need to look beyond individual erosion events to quantify the long-term trends in cliff retreat rates. Exposure dating of shore platforms using cosmogenic radionuclide analysis and numerical modelling allows us to study past cliff retreat rates across the Late Holocene for these chalk coastlines. Here, we conduct a multi-objective optimisation of a coastal evolution model to both high-precision topographic data and 10Be concentrations at four chalk rock coast sites to reveal a link between cliff retreat rates and the rate of sea-level rise. Furthermore, our results strengthen evidence for a recent acceleration in cliff retreat rates at the chalk cliffs on the south coast of England. Our optimised model results suggest that the relatively rapid historical cliff retreat rates observed at these sites spanning the last 150 years last occurred between 5300 and 6800 years ago when the rate of relative sea-level rise was a factor of 5–9 times more rapid than during the recent observable record. However, results for these chalk sites also indicate that current process-based models of rock coast development are overlooking key processes that were not previously identified at sandstone rock coast sites. Interpretation of results suggest that beaches, cliff debris and heterogenous lithology play an important but poorly understood role in the long-term evolution of these chalk rock coast sites. Despite these limitations, our results reveal significant differences in intertidal weathering rates between sandstone and chalk rock coast sites, which helps to inform the long-standing debate of “wave versus weathering” a

  • Journal article
    Laydon D, Cauchemez S, Hinsley W, Bhatt S, Ferguson Net al., 2023,

    Impact of proactive and reactive vaccination strategies for health-care workers against MERS-CoV: a mathematical modelling study

    , The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 11, Pages: e759-e769, ISSN: 2214-109X

    BackgroundSeveral vaccine candidates are in development against MERS-CoV, which remains a major public health concern. In anticipation of available MERS-CoV vaccines, we examine strategies for their optimal deployment among health-care workers.MethodsUsing data from the 2013–14 Saudi Arabia epidemic, we use a counterfactual analysis on inferred transmission trees (who-infected-whom analysis) to assess the potential impact of vaccination campaigns targeting health-care workers, as quantified by the proportion of cases or deaths averted. We investigate the conditions under which proactive campaigns (ie vaccinating in anticipation of the next outbreak) would outperform reactive campaigns (ie vaccinating in response to an unfolding outbreak), considering vaccine efficacy, duration of vaccine protection, effectiveness of animal reservoir control measures, wait (time between vaccination and next outbreak, for proactive campaigns), reaction time (for reactive campaigns), and spatial level (hospital, regional, or national, for reactive campaigns). We also examine the relative efficiency (cases averted per thousand doses) of different strategies.FindingsThe spatial scale of reactive campaigns is crucial. Proactive campaigns outperform campaigns that vaccinate health-care workers in response to outbreaks at their hospital, unless vaccine efficacy has waned significantly. However, reactive campaigns at the regional or national levels consistently outperform proactive campaigns, regardless of vaccine efficacy. When considering the number of cases averted per vaccine dose administered, the rank order is reversed: hospital-level reactive campaigns are most efficient, followed by regional-level reactive campaigns, with national-level and proactive campaigns being least efficient. If the number of cases required to trigger reactive vaccination increases, the performance of hospital-level campaigns is greatly reduced; the impact of regional-level campaigns is variable, but tha

  • Journal article
    Charnley G, Yennan S, Ochu C, Kelman I, Gaythorpe K, Murray Ket al., 2023,

    Cholera past and future in Nigeria: are the Global Task Force on Cholera Control’s 2030 targets achievable?

    , PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol: 17, Pages: 1-18, ISSN: 1935-2727

    BackgroundUnderstanding and continually assessing the achievability of global health targets is key to reducing disease burden and mortality. The Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) Roadmap aims to reduce cholera deaths by 90% and eliminate the disease in twenty countries by 2030. The Roadmap has three axes focusing on reporting, response and coordination. Here, we assess the achievability of the GTFCC targets in Nigeria and identify where the three axes could be strengthened to reach and exceed these goals.Methodology/Principal findingsUsing cholera surveillance data from Nigeria, cholera incidence was calculated and used to model time-varying reproduction number (R). A best fit random forest model was identified using R as the outcome variable and several environmental and social covariates were considered in the model, using random forest variable importance and correlation clustering. Future scenarios were created (based on varying degrees of socioeconomic development and emission reductions) and used to project future cholera transmission, nationally and sub-nationally to 2070. The projections suggest that significant reductions in cholera cases could be achieved by 2030, particularly in the more developed southern states, but increases in cases remain a possibility. Meeting the 2030 target, nationally, currently looks unlikely and we propose a new 2050 target focusing on reducing regional inequities, while still advocating for cholera elimination being achieved as soon as possible.Conclusion/SignificanceThe 2030 targets could potentially be reached by 2030 in some parts of Nigeria, but more effort is needed to reach these targets at a national level, particularly through access and incentives to cholera testing, sanitation expansion, poverty alleviation and urban planning. The results highlight the importance of and how modelling studies can be used to inform cholera policy and the potential for this to be applied in other contexts.

  • Journal article
    Mitchell WH, Whittaker AC, Mayall M, Lonergan Let al., 2023,

    Reconciling bathymetric and stratigraphic expressions of submarine channel geometry

    , Marine Geology, Vol: 459, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 0025-3227

    Modern submarine channels form distinctive morphological features on the seafloor and play a critical role in shaping the marine sedimentary record. Recent studies have captured the extremely diverse range of cross-sectional geometries in submarine channels from bathymetric data, which typically display aspect ratios markedly different to the stratigraphic record of ancient submarine channels. Here, we compare and reconcile the relationship between the geomorphic expression of submarine channels as observed on the seafloor and the geometry of their stratigraphic bodies as mapped in seismic-reflection data, using the Niger Delta slope an exemplar. For the same channels, our data allows us to contrast the distribution of widths, depths, and aspect ratios from bathymetric data and at two hierarchical scales in the underlying stratigraphy – the channel element and channel system scale. Channel characteristics are also contextualised with respect to two key variables, the underlying structural template and the relative timescale for which the studied systems have been active. Analysis of the seafloor bankfull geometries highlights substantial variability with widths ranging from ∼300 m to ∼4 km and aspect ratios from ∼10:1–100:1. In contrast, the geometry of stratigraphic channel element bodies remains remarkably consistent across the three channels with widths ∼480–620 m and aspect ratios of ∼9:1. At channel system scale stratigraphic width is comparable to that seen in the bathymetric data, but with aspect ratios of 6–23:1. Our results therefore highlight a marked disparity in the cross-sectional geometries on the present-day seafloor and for their associated channels in the stratigraphic record. We demonstrate that a large part of the disparity between modern and ancient submarine channel geometries may be explained by post-abandonment modification of the seabed channels where there is reduced Holocene activity and we argue

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