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OtherPanchanathan A, Novellino A, Mansour M, et al., 2025,
Digital Twins for Hydrology
<jats:p>Digital Twins (DT) are a dynamic virtual representation of a system and have been widely used in engineering and industry. A key advantage of DT technology is its ability to quickly capture and visualize large spatially disparate data sources and to combine them with numerical modelling to replicate systems in real time as well as provide near time forecasts and predictions. Here we present a pilot DT, FLOODTWIN, built for water-related hazard forecasting and decision-making in the first instance for Hull and the East Riding of Yorkshire (UK), a region heavily impacted by several hydrometeorological hazards including groundwater, surface water, river and coastal flooding. This federated cyber-physical infrastructure ecosystem was conceptualized using interconnected systems including a programme of Earth Observation (EO), sensor and network integration, modelling, data infrastructure development and stakeholder engagement. Significant outcomes of FLOODTWIN include the integration of EO and sensor data, a combined ground/surface water model geared towards decision making, development of a real-time digital hub for assessing, analysing, storing, passing and serving data and longitudinal professional stakeholder engagement through co-creation of project tools. This interdisciplinary study helps to improve the efficiency, resilience, and sustainability of a new evidence-base to underpin improved multi-agency decision-making in flood risk management - with possible foci including past flood review, nowcasting and future planning.</jats:p>
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OtherGryspeerdt E, Bennett L, Driver OGA, et al., 2025,
The Contrail OBservations And Lifecycle Tracking (COBALT) project - Observations and initial results
<jats:p>Aircraft are a growing proportion of the human forcing of the climate system, with the majority of their warming effect coming from their impact on clouds. Accurate modelling of these impacts is essential for guiding climate mitigation choices, but there are limited observations available to evaluate the capability of these models. &#160;Matching aircraft tracks to data from a cloud radar, an array of ground-based cameras and satellite observations, the Contrail OBservations And Lifecycle Tracking (COBALT) project is constructing an evaluation dataset for models of contrails and aircraft impacts on existing cloud. &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160; &#160;Here we present the design of the COBALT observations, along with initial results for data collected over the southern UK in late 2024/early 2025. Matching the ground-based o
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OtherWilliams R, Goodwin P, Ceppi P, et al., 2025,
A normalised framework for the Zero Emission Commitment: competing controls by thermal and carbon processes
<jats:p>Climate models reveal a range of global surface temperature responses after net zero, generally a slight cooling, but sometimes a slight continued warming. This post emission response is affected by a range of processes including carbon uptake by the land and ocean, planetary heat uptake and time-varying climate feedback. To reveal their relative importance, a normalised framework is set out for the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC),&#160; connecting the change in surface temperature (normalised by the change at net zero) &#160;to changes in the atmospheric carbon inventory, radiative forcing, planetary heat uptake and climate feedback. Whether the temperature decreases or continues to rise after net zero is controlled by opposing contributions from (i) a weakening in radiative forcing due to a decrease in atmospheric carbon from the uptake by the land and ocean carbon sinks versus (ii) a strengthening in the surface warming due to a decline in ocean heat uptake and sometimes augmented by time-varying climate feedbacks. Inter-model differences in the post emission temperature response for the ZEC Model Intercomparison Project scenario are primarily determined by differences in the ocean uptake of heat and the land uptake of carbon, followed by differences in the ocean uptake of carbon and time-varying climate feedbacks.</jats:p>
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OtherHewetson A, Lawrence J, Karmpadakis I, 2025,
An automated shoreline detection method using PlanetScope satellite imagery&#160;
<jats:p>Multispectral satellite images can survey the surf zone through discretizing the land-sea interface, at a known water level, to monitor recession and accretion rates along the coastline. This shoreline detection method can be enhanced by utilizing the daily return frequency of PlanetScope data, allowing a higher temporal resolution of the observed shorelines. Similar shoreline detection tools, such as CoastSat&#8203;(Doherty et al., 2022; Vos et al., 2019)&#8203;, discretize the land-sea interface by thresholding the image using a single index, such as NDWI (normalized difference water index) &#8203;(McFeeters, 1996)&#8203; and contouring the image at this threshold. Presented here is an alternative approach. In using several multilayer perceptrons (MLP) acting together, each pixel&#8217;s probability of being classed as land or sea is calculated. The final shoreline contour is then probabilistically defined whithout the use of manual threshold. The advantage of this method is that it allows for spatial variability within satellite bands, for regions of shadow and geographical features, to still be correctly discretized. It also allows for further use case beyond just sandy beaches, due to the implementation of multiple indices allowing identification of different classes that could be interfacing with the sea. Characteristically, apart from the usual NDWI and NDVI index, we use the RGB and IR bands as well as 24 further band relationships for a total set of 28 indices to train the MLPs. The root mean squared error (RMSE), the distance between the derived shoreline and a height contour relative to the instantaneous water-level, of this method tested at Seaford UK for cloud cover NDVI=IR&#8722;RedIR+RedNDVI=IR&#8722;RedIR+Red&#160;&#8203;&#8203;Doherty, Y., Harley, M. D., Vos, K., &amp; Splinter, K. D. (2022). A Python toolkit to monitor sandy shoreline change using
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OtherFargette N, Eastwood J, Matteini L, et al., 2025,
On the role of mirror mode instabilities in the reconnecting Heliospheric Current Sheet dynamics
<jats:p>Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental process in astrophysical plasma, as it enables the dissipation of energy at kinetic scales as well as large-scale reconfiguration of the magnetic topology. In the solar wind, its quantitative role in plasma dynamics and particle energization remains an open question that is starting to come into focus as more missions now probe the inner heliosphere. In particular, the first encounters of the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) mission with the Sun have revealed that the Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS) was often reconnecting close to the Sun, opening question about the impact of HCS reconnection on the nearby solar wind.In this work, we first make a thorough catalog of all HCS crossings measured PSP (encounter 5 to the latest available) and find that 88\% of crossings present magnetic reconnection signatures. This statistically confirms that magnetic reconnection is prevalent in the near Sun HCS. We then quantify the level of turbulence within the HCS and find enhanced energy at kinetic scales compared to the nearby solar wind, usually devoid of magnetic switchbacks. We furthermore highlight the frequent observation of mirror mode instabilities within the structure of the HCS, hinting that this process plays a particular role in the energy dissipation. These mirror mode instabilities are also observed within HCS crossings observed by Solar Orbiter further in the heliosphere. We finally plan to study the evolution of the HCS structure through multi-spacecraft observation.Collectively, these results show that the HCS may play an important role in the energization of the near Sun solar wind. We discuss the impact of these observations on our current understanding of HCS reconnection and solar wind turbulence.</jats:p>
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Journal articleSimpson IR, Shaw TA, Ceppi P, et al., 2025,
Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations
, Science Advances, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2375-2548Anthropogenically forced climate change signals are emerging from the noise of internal variability in observations, and the impacts on society are growing. For decades, Climate or Earth System Models have been predicting how these climate change signals will unfold. While challenges remain, given the growing forced trends and the lengthening observational record, the climate science community is now in a position to confront the signals, as represented by historical trends, in models with observations. This review covers the state of the science on the ability of models to represent historical trends in the climate system. It also outlines robust procedures that should be used when comparing modeled and observed trends and how to move beyond quantification into understanding. Finally, this review discusses cutting-edge methods for identifying sources of discrepancies and the importance of future confrontations.
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OtherPrasow-Émond M, Plancherel Y, Piggott MD, et al., 2025,
A Data-Driven Approach to Disentangling Coastal Changes: Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities in the Maldives
<jats:p>The Maldives, a low-lying Small Island Developing State (SIDS) in the Indian Ocean, possesses over 1000 coral reef and atoll islands that exhibit significant sub- and inter-annual coastline variability. The country&#8217;s low elevation and extensive human modifications, such as land reclamation and shoreline armouring, make it vulnerable to environmental and anthropogenic pressures. Existing literature lacks a comprehensive understanding of the patterns of coastal changes, as well as the main anthropogenic and environmental drivers involved, which operate across diverse temporal (e.g., daily, seasonal, multi-decadal) and spatial (e.g., site-specific or atoll-wide) scales. The lack of systematic and frequent monitoring leaves sub- and inter-annual variability and the geomorphological responses to climate forcings, such as the Indian Monsoon and the Indian Ocean Dipole, poorly understood.To address these gaps, a data-driven framework was developed, leveraging remote sensing data, in situ measurements, and open-access databases. Satellite imagery from Landsat-8/9 (NASA) and Sentinel-2 (ESA), with spatial resolutions of 10&#8211;60 m and temporal resolutions of 5&#8211;16 days, enables the retrieval of high-temporal-resolution time series of coastline positions for islands in the Maldives and worldwide. The framework disentangles coastal changes through three steps. First, an image segmentation algorithm was developed to extract island shapes over time, generating reliable monthly coastline position time series. Second, time series decomposition separated data into trend, seasonality, and residual components, each analysed to uncover specific drivers. Trend analysis investigated the impacts of human activities (e.g., land reclamation, sand mining, shoreline armouring) and climate change (e.g., coral growth, sea-level rise). Seasonality analysis explores sub- and inter-annual drivers, including the Indian Monsoon and the Indian Ocea
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Journal articleMarschalek J, Gasson E, van de Flierdt T, et al., 2025,
Quantitative sub-ice and marine Tracing of Antarctic Sediment Provenance (TASP v1.0)
, Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN: 1991-959XIce sheet models should be able to accurately simulate palaeo ice sheets to have confidence in their projections of future polar ice sheet mass loss and resulting global sea-level rise. This requires accurate reconstructions of the extent and flow patterns of palaeo ice sheets using real-world data. Such reconstructions can be achieved by tracing the detrital components of offshore sedimentary records back to their source areas on land. For Antarctica, however, sediment provenance data and ice sheet model results have not been directly linked, despite the complimentary information each can provide on the other. Here, we present a computational framework (Tracing Antarctic Sediment Provenance, TASP) that predicts marine geochemical sediment provenance data using the output of numerical ice sheet modelling. The ice sheet model is used to estimate the spatial pattern of erosion potential and to trace ice flow pathways. Beyond the ice sheet margin, approximations of modern detrital particle transport mechanisms using ocean reanalysis data produce a good agreement between our predictions for the modern ice sheet/ocean system and seabed surface sediments. These results show that the algorithm could be used to predict the provenance signature of past ice sheet configurations. TASP currently predicts neodymium isotope compositions using the PSUICE3D ice sheet model, but thanks to its design it could be adapted to predict other provenance indicators or use the outputs of other ice sheet models.
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Journal articleDriver O, Stettler MEJ, Gryspeerdt E, 2025,
Factors limiting contrail detection in satellite imagery
, Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, ISSN: 1867-1381 -
Journal articleBuckley Paules J, Fatichi S, Warring B, et al., 2025,
T&C-CROP: representing mechanistic crop growth with a terrestrial biosphere model (T&C, v1.5) – model formulation and validation
, Geoscientific Model Development, Vol: 18, Pages: 1287-1305, ISSN: 1991-959XCropland cultivation is fundamental to food security and plays a crucial role in the global water, energy, and carbon cycles. However, our understanding of how climate change will impact cropland functions is still limited. This knowledge gap is partly due to the simplifications made in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), which often overlook essential agricultural management practices such as irrigation and fertilizer application and simplify critical physiological crop processes. Here, we demonstrate how, with minor, parsimonious enhancements to the TBM T&amp;C, it is possible to accurately represent a complex cropland system. Our modified model, T&amp;C-CROP, incorporates realistic agricultural management practices, including complex crop rotations and irrigation and fertilization regimes, along with their effects on soil biogeochemical cycling. We successfully validate T&amp;C-CROP across four distinct agricultural sites, encompassing diverse cropping systems such as multi-crop rotations, monoculture, and managed grassland. A comprehensive validation of T&amp;C-CROP was conducted, encompassing water, energy, and carbon fluxes; leaf area index (LAI); and organ-specific yields. Our model effectively captured the heterogeneity in daily land surface energy balances across crop sites, achieving coefficients of determination of 0.77, 0.48, and 0.87 for observed versus simulated net radiation (Rn), sensible heat flux (H), and latent heat flux (LE), respectively. Seasonal, crop-specific gross primary production (GPP) was simulated with an average absolute bias of less than 10 %. Peak-season LAI was accurately represented, with an r2 of 0.67. Harvested yields (above-ground biomass, grain, and straw) were generally simulated within 10 %–20 % accuracy of observed values, although inter-annual variations in crop-specific growth were difficult to capture.
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