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Journal articleWilliams RG, Goodwin P, Ceppi P, et al., 2025,
A normalised framework for the Zero Emissions Commitment
, BIOGEOSCIENCES, Vol: 22, Pages: 7167-7186, ISSN: 1726-4170 -
Journal articleDriver OGA, Stettler MEJ, Gryspeerdt E, 2025,
The ice supersaturation biases limiting contrail modelling are structured around extratropical depressions
, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol: 25, Pages: 16411-16433, ISSN: 1680-7316Contrails are ice clouds formed along aircraft flight tracks, responsible for much of aviation's climate warming impact. Ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs) provide conditions where contrail ice crystals can persist, but meteorological models often mispredict their occurrence, limiting contrail modelling. This deficiency is often treated by applying local humidity corrections. However, model performance is also affected by synoptic conditions (such as extratropical depressions).Here, composites of ERA5 reanalysis data around North Atlantic extratropical depressions enable a link between their structure and ISSR modelling. ISSRs are structured by these systems: at flight levels, ISSRs occur less frequently in the dry intrusion – descending upper-tropospheric air – than above warm conveyors – where air is lifted. Both ERA5 reanalysis and in situ aircraft observations show this contrast, demonstrating that the model reproduces the fundamental relationship. Individual-ISSR modelling performance (quantified using interpretable metrics) is also structured. Of the rare ISSRs diagnosed in the location associated with the dry intrusion, fewer are confirmed by in situ observations (20 %–25 % precision drop compared to the warm conveyor) and fewer of those observed were diagnosed (13 %–19 % recall drop). Scaling humidity beyond the occurrence rate bias dramatically increases the recall at low precision cost, demonstrating the potential value of scaling approaches designed with different intentions. However, the failure of scaling to improve precision, or the performance in the dry intrusion, implies that there is a need to account for the synoptic weather situation and structure in order to improve ISSR forecasts in support of mitigating aviation's climate impact.
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Journal articlePugsley G, Gryspeerdt E, Nair V, 2025,
Cloud fraction response to aerosol driven by nighttime processes
, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, ISSN: 0027-8424 -
Journal articleXu H, Chen Y, Cao R, et al., 2025,
Generative discovery of partial differential equations by learning from math handbooks
, Nature Communications, Vol: 16, ISSN: 2041-1723Data-driven discovery of partial differential equations (PDEs) is a promising approach for uncovering the underlying laws governing complex systems. However, purely data-driven techniques face the dilemma of balancing search space with optimization efficiency. This study introduces a knowledge-guided approach that incorporates existing PDEs documented in a mathematical handbook to facilitate the discovery process. These PDEs are encoded as sentence-like structures composed of operators and basic terms, and used to train a generative model, called EqGPT, which enables the generation of free-form PDEs. A loop of “generation–evaluation–optimization” is constructed to autonomously identify the most suitable PDE. Experimental results demonstrate that this framework can recover a variety of PDE forms with high accuracy and computational efficiency, particularly in cases involving complex temporal derivatives or intricate spatial terms, which are often beyond the reach of conventional methods. The approach also exhibits generalizability to irregular spatial domains and higher dimensional settings. Notably, it succeeds in discovering a previously unreported PDE governing strongly nonlinear surface gravity waves propagating toward breaking, based on real-world experimental data, highlighting its applicability to practical scenarios and its potential to support scientific discovery.
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Journal articleAli Z, Abubakar I, Amegah AK, et al., 2025,
Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Africa: an international collaboration for locally led research and action.
, LancetClimate change inflicts substantial economic damage on developing African nations, threatening progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. There are synergies between actions needed to tackle climate change and other ongoing development priorities for Africa, including infectious disease control, facilitating clean energy access, reducing air pollution, tackling malnutrition and food insecurity, and providing universal health coverage. Action to protect human health against climate change needs to be integrated into all systems that are responsible for delivering essential services and implementing policies across all sectors that underpin the attainment of key development priorities for Africa. These systems include the Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union's 2063 Agenda for building The Africa We Want, and the ongoing negotiations and work programmes in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adequate stocktaking of and access to robust data and scientific evidence is needed to support this effort and guide priorities for policies that protect and promote health and for monitoring progress over time. In response to this need, the Lancet Countdown is launching a new initiative to bring together a transdisciplinary research collaboration to help build regional capacity, strengthen existing networks, generate evidence, and mobilise data across numerous domains at the climate change and health nexus in Africa.
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Journal articleBerden J, Hanley-Cook GT, Chimera B, et al., 2025,
Synergies between food biodiversity, processing levels, and the EAT-Lancet diet for nutrient adequacy and environmental sustainability: a multiobjective optimization using the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort.
, Am J Clin NutrBACKGROUND: Diets have become increasingly monotonous and high in ultraprocessed foods (UPFs), contributing to poor health outcomes and environmental degradation. Although sustainable diets, food biodiversity, and food processing levels have each been linked to nutritional and environmental outcomes, their combined impact has not been assessed. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to examine whether food biodiversity, intakes of UPFs, and adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet can simultaneously optimize nutrient adequacy while reducing environmental impacts. METHODS: Using data from 368,733 adults in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, we assessed associations and interactions between dietary species richness (DSR) (disaggregated into DSRPlant and DSRAnimal), food processing levels (Nova categories; % g/d), and adherence to EAT-Lancet recommendations [healthy reference diet (HRD) score; 0-140 points] with the Probability of Adequate Nutrient Intake Diet (PANDiet) score, dietary greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe; kg CO2-eq/d), and land use (m2/d). Regression models subsequently informed multiobjective optimization to identify optimal dietary patterns balancing nutritional and environmental outcomes. RESULTS: Compared with observed diets, optimal diets showed a mean HRD score increase of 13.91 (95% confidence interval: 13.89, 13.93) points; DSRPlant increased by mean of 1.36 (1.35, 1.37) species, and a mean substitution of 12.44 (12.40, 12.49) percentage points of UPFs with unprocessed or minimally processed foods. Correspondingly, the mean PANDiet score increased by 4.12 (4.10, 4.14) percentage points, whereas GHGe and land use reduced by 1.07 (1.05, 1.09) kg CO2-eq/d and 1.43 (1.41, 1.45) m2/d, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Diets that adhere to the EAT-Lancet diet, are more biodiverse, and prioritize unprocessed and minimally processed foods over UPFs, have the potential to synergistically enhance nutrient adequacy while minimizing environmental impacts. T
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Journal articleBjørnestad M, Halsne T, Malila M, et al., 2025,
Whitecaps, bubbles and advection: insights from concurrent measurements in the open ocean
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 52, ISSN: 0094-8276Field measurements of breaking waves and bubble depths were obtained using a stereo video system collocated with a submerged acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) in the central North Sea. We discriminate between two bubble depths that define an active near-surface layer and a deeper layer. The active layer intermittently sees short-lived injected bubble depths from breakers whereas the deeper layer is dominated by persistent passive bubble plumes that remain visible for more than 50 mean wave periods. We augment traditional single-beam bubble detection methods by utilizing all five beams of the ADCP to achieve broader spatial coverage of bubble plume measurements. The combined wave and bubble observations reveal that deep bubble plumes often occur offset spatially from surface whitecaps, suggesting that Langmuir-type circulation plays a role in the formation and persistence of deep bubble plumes through vertical and horizontal advection.
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Journal articleTalepour N, Birgani YT, Kelly FJ, et al., 2025,
Ambient PM2.5: health policy implications and management in Khuzestan, Iran
, Science of the Total Environment, Vol: 1004, ISSN: 0048-9697Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major environmental risk for premature mortality worldwide. This study quantifies the health and economic impacts of PM2.5 exposure in Khuzestan Province of Iran. This study quantifies the health and economic impacts of PM2.5 exposure in Khuzestan Province, Iran. Validated daily PM2.5 data from eight monitoring stations in 2021 were preprocessed, including outlier removal and gap-filling using a PM10-to-PM2.5 conversion factor of 0.45. Population data were projected from the 2016 census. The U.S. EPA's BenMAP-CE tool was used to estimate avoidable premature deaths under two PM2.5 reduction scenarios (10 and 5 μg/m3). This study assessed mortality for five outcomes: acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI), ischemic heart disease (IHD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer (LC), stroke, and all-cause mortality. Economic valuation employed the value of statistical life (VSL), adjusted for Iran's GDP. PM2.5 concentrations (30–55 μg/m3) surpassed WHO limits by 6–11 times, especially in Ahvaz and Omidiyeh. A total of 3174 avoidable deaths per 100,000 were estimated annually under the WHO's 5 μg/m3 guidelines. Among diseases, ischemic heart disease (IHD) accounted for the largest share of avoidable deaths (≈38 %), followed by stroke (≈23 %) and all-cause mortality (≈18 %). The annual economic benefits of reducing PM2.5 under the 5 μg/m3 scenario were estimated at USD 46–236.4 million. The greatest health and economic benefits from improved air quality are expected in Ahvaz (central Khuzestan) and Dezful (north), followed by Abadan and Bandar-e-Mahshahr (southwest). This study highlights the high PM2.5 burden in Khuzestan's urban and industrial centers. Targeted air quality policies in these areas could bring significant health and economic benefits. The results provide a solid basis for targeted policies, including stricter emission controls in high-burden re
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Journal articleChen J, Kang Y, Toumi R, et al., 2025,
Increasing Temporal Variability of Global Tropical Cyclone Near-Storm Rainfall Under Global Warming: Insights From CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulations
, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, Vol: 130, ISSN: 2169-897X -
Journal articleVeness W, Alejandro D, Gemma C, et al., 2025,
User priorities for hydrological monitoring infrastructures supporting research and innovation
, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS), Vol: 29, Pages: 6201-6219, ISSN: 1027-5606Observational data availability, quality, and access are major obstacles to hydrological science and innovation. To alleviate these issues, major investments are being made in hydrological monitoring infrastructures to enable data collection and sharing at unprecedented scales and resolution. These projects integrate a range of complex physical and digital components, which require careful design to prioritise the needs of end-users and optimise their value delivery. We present here the findings of multiple-methods research on end-user needs for a GBP 38 million hydrological monitoring and research infrastructure in the UK, integrating a systematic literature review of common user-requirements with interviews of 20 national stakeholders. We find a demand for infrastructures that complement their provision of baseline hydrological datasets, where feasible, with additional services designed specifically to enable wider and more decentralised data collection. This can unlock the capacities of user communities by addressing barriers to data collection through, for example, the provision of land access, reliable benchmark datasets, equipment rental and technical support. Similarly, value can be unlocked by providing data management services, including data access, storage, quality control, processing, visualisation and communication. Our respondents further consider digital and physical spaces where users can collaborate to be critical for incubating genuine value to science and innovation. We conclude that new hydrological monitoring infrastructures require concurrent investments to build and nurture associated user, research and innovation communities, where specific enabling support is provided to facilitate collaborations. Supplementing digital and monitoring services with support for data collection and collaboration among active, value-generating user communities can produce multiplier effects from initial capital investments, by attracting longer-term contr
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