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@article{Tsui:2022:10.1002/qj.4290,
author = {Tsui, EYL and Toumi, R},
doi = {10.1002/qj.4290},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
pages = {2102--2117},
title = {Pacific subsurface temperature as a longrange indicator of El Niño, regional precipitation, and fire},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4290},
volume = {148},
year = {2022}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - The SubNiño4 index based on the subsurface potential temperature around the thermocline beneath the west Pacific warm pool, the Niño 4 region, is examined as a long-range indicator of the surface El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO-driven atmospheric response. The SubNiño4 index captures the evolution of subsurface ocean heat content between the El Niño and La Niña phases of the ENSO cycle, allowing it to serve as a long-range indicator of surface ENSO and hence also many ENSO-driven atmospheric anomalies. The SubNiño4 index has more temporally stable correlations with Niño 3.4 than the widely used western equatorial Pacific warm-water volume indicator. For a lead time of the order of 12 months, Niño 3.4 correlations afforded by the lead observed SubNiño4 index become similar to and can exceed those produced by typical dynamical ENSO predictions. The value and viability of the SubNiño4 index as a simple statistical long-range indicator of ENSO-driven atmospheric response is shown for regional precipitation anomalies throughout the Tropics and fires in Continental and Maritime Southeast Asia.
AU - Tsui,EYL
AU - Toumi,R
DO - 10.1002/qj.4290
EP - 2117
PY - 2022///
SN - 0035-9009
SP - 2102
TI - Pacific subsurface temperature as a longrange indicator of El Niño, regional precipitation, and fire
T2 - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4290
UR - https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.4290
VL - 148
ER -
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