BibTex format
@article{Pirani:2024:10.1371/journal.pntd.0012397,
author = {Pirani, M and Lorenz, C and de, Azevedo TS and Barbosa, GL and Blangiardo, M and Chiaravalloti-Neto, F},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0012397},
journal = {PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases},
title = {Effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and seasonal weather conditions on Aedes aegypti infestation in the State of São Paulo (Brazil): a Bayesian spatio-temporal study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0012397},
volume = {18},
year = {2024}
}
RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)
TY - JOUR
AB - BackgroundSeasonal fluctuations in weather are recognized as factors that affect both Aedes (Ae.) aegypti mosquitoes and the diseases they carry, such as dengue fever. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is widely regarded as one of the most impactful atmospheric phenomena on Earth, characterized by the interplay of shifting ocean temperatures, trade wind intensity, and atmospheric pressure, resulting in extensive alterations in climate conditions. In this study, we investigate the influence of ENSO and local weather conditions on the spatio-temporal variability of Ae. aegypti infestation index.MethodsWe collected seasonal entomological survey data of immature forms of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes (Breteau index), as well as data on temperature, rainfall and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for the period 2008–2018 over the 645 municipalities of the subtropical State of São Paulo (Brazil). We grounded our analytical approach on a Bayesian framework and we used a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to study the relationship between ENSO tracked by ONI, seasonal weather fluctuations and the larval index, while adjusting for population density and wealth inequalities.ResultsOur results showed a relevant positive effect for El Niño on the Ae. aegypti larval index. In particular, we found that the number of positive containers would be expected to increase by 1.30-unit (95% Credible Intervals (CI): 1.23 to 1.37) with El Niño events (i.e., ≥ 1°C, moderate to strong) respect to neutral (and weak) events. We also found that seasonal rainfall exceeding 153.12 mm appears to have a notable impact on vector index, leading potentially to the accumulation of ample water in outdoor discarded receptacles, supporting the aquatic phase of mosquito development. Additionally, seasonal temperature above 23.30°C was found positively associated to the larval index. Although the State of São Paulo as a whole has characteristics favourable
AU - Pirani,M
AU - Lorenz,C
AU - de,Azevedo TS
AU - Barbosa,GL
AU - Blangiardo,M
AU - Chiaravalloti-Neto,F
DO - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0012397
PY - 2024///
SN - 1935-2727
TI - Effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and seasonal weather conditions on Aedes aegypti infestation in the State of São Paulo (Brazil): a Bayesian spatio-temporal study
T2 - PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0012397
VL - 18
ER -