BibTex format
@article{Sheppard:2023:10.1038/s41467-023-39288-6,
author = {Sheppard, R and Watson, OJ and Pieciak, R and Lungu, J and Kwenda, G and Moyo, C and Longa, Chanda S and Barnsley, G and Brazeau, NF and Gerard-Ursin, ICG and Olivera, Mesa D and Whittaker, C and Gregson, S and Okell, LC and Ghani, AC and MacLeod, WB and Del, Fava E and Melegaro, A and Hines, JZ and Mulenga, LB and Walker, P and Mwananyanda, L and Gill, CJ},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-023-39288-6},
journal = {Nature Communications},
pages = {1--15},
title = {Using mortuary and burial data to place COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia within a global context},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39288-6},
volume = {14},
year = {2023}
}
RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)
TY - JOUR
AB - Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relative to global averages, but true impact is difficult to estimate given limitations around surveillance and mortality registration. In Lusaka, Zambia, burial registration and SARS-CoV-2prevalence data during 2020 allow estimation of excess mortality and transmission. Relative to pre-pandemic patterns, we estimate age-dependent mortality increases, totalling 3,212 excess deaths (95% CrI: 2,104-4,591), representing an 18.5% (95% CrI: 13.0-25.2%) increase relative to pre-pandemic levels. Using a dynamical model-based inferential framework, we find that these mortalitypatterns and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data are in agreement with established COVID-19 severity estimates. Our results support hypotheses that COVID-19 impact in Lusaka during 2020 was consistent with COVID-19 epidemics elsewhere, without requiring exceptional explanations for low reported figures. For more equitable decision-making during future pandemics, barriers to ascertaining attributable mortality in low-income settings must be addressed and factored into discourse around reported impact differences.
AU - Sheppard,R
AU - Watson,OJ
AU - Pieciak,R
AU - Lungu,J
AU - Kwenda,G
AU - Moyo,C
AU - Longa,Chanda S
AU - Barnsley,G
AU - Brazeau,NF
AU - Gerard-Ursin,ICG
AU - Olivera,Mesa D
AU - Whittaker,C
AU - Gregson,S
AU - Okell,LC
AU - Ghani,AC
AU - MacLeod,WB
AU - Del,Fava E
AU - Melegaro,A
AU - Hines,JZ
AU - Mulenga,LB
AU - Walker,P
AU - Mwananyanda,L
AU - Gill,CJ
DO - 10.1038/s41467-023-39288-6
EP - 15
PY - 2023///
SN - 2041-1723
SP - 1
TI - Using mortuary and burial data to place COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia within a global context
T2 - Nature Communications
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39288-6
UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39288-6
VL - 14
ER -