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Journal articleConnelly SV, Brazeau NF, Msellem M, et al., 2024,
Strong isolation by distance and evidence of population microstructure reflect ongoing Plasmodium falciparum transmission in Zanzibar.
, medRxivThe Zanzibar archipelago of Tanzania has become a low-transmission area for Plasmodium falciparum. Despite being considered an area of pre-elimination for years, achieving elimination has been difficult, likely due to a combination of imported infections from mainland Tanzania, and continued local transmission. To shed light on these sources of transmission, we applied highly multiplexed genotyping utilizing molecular inversion probes to characterize the genetic relatedness of 282 P. falciparum isolates collected across Zanzibar and in Bagamoyo District on the coastal mainland from 2016-2018. Overall, parasite populations on the coastal mainland and Zanzibar archipelago remain highly related. However, parasite isolates from Zanzibar exhibit population microstructure due to rapid decay of parasite relatedness over very short distances. This, along with highly related pairs within shehias, suggests ongoing low level local transmission. We also identified highly related parasites across shehias that reflect human mobility on the main island of Unguja and identified a cluster of highly related parasites, suggestive of an outbreak, in the Micheweni district on Pemba island. Parasites in asymptomatic infections demonstrated higher complexity of infection than those in symptomatic infections, but have similar core genomes. Our data support importation as a main source of genetic diversity and contribution to the parasite population on Zanzibar, but they also show local outbreak clusters where targeted interventions are essential to block local transmission. These results highlight the need for preventive measures against imported malaria and enhanced control measures in areas that remain receptive for malaria reemergence due to susceptible hosts and competent vectors.
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Journal articleMayor A, Ishengoma DS, Proctor JL, et al., 2023,
Sampling for malaria molecular surveillance.
, Trends Parasitol, Vol: 39, Pages: 954-968Strategic use of Plasmodium falciparum genetic variation has great potential to inform public health actions for malaria control and elimination. Malaria molecular surveillance (MMS) begins with a strategy to identify and collect parasite samples, guided by public-health priorities. In this review we discuss sampling design practices for MMS and point out epidemiological, biological, and statistical factors that need to be considered. We present examples for different use cases, including detecting emergence and spread of rare variants, establishing transmission sources and inferring changes in malaria transmission intensity. This review will potentially guide the collection of samples and data, serve as a starting point for further methodological innovation, and enhance utilization of MMS to support malaria elimination.
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Journal articleWinskill P, Dhabangi A, Kwambai TK, et al., 2023,
Estimating the burden of severe malarial anaemia and access to hospital care in East Africa.
, Nat Commun, Vol: 14Severe malarial anaemia can be fatal if not promptly treated. Hospital studies may under-represent the true burden because cases often occur in settings with poor access to healthcare. We estimate the relationship of community prevalence of malaria infection and severe malarial anaemia with the incidence of severe malarial anaemia cases in hospital, using survey data from 21 countries and hospital data from Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. The estimated percentage of severe malarial anaemia cases that were hospitalised is low and consistent for Kenya (21% (95% CrI: 7%, 47%)), Tanzania (18% (95% CrI: 5%, 52%)) and Uganda (23% (95% CrI: 9%, 48%)). The majority of severe malarial anaemia cases remain in the community, with the consequent public health burden being contingent upon the severity of these cases. Alongside health system strengthening, research to better understand the spectrum of disease associated with severe malarial anaemia cases in the community is a priority.
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Journal articlePaschalidis A, Watson O, Aydemir O, et al., 2023,
<i>coiaf</i>: Directly estimating complexity of infection with allele frequencies
, PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1553-734X -
Journal articleTopazian HM, Schmit N, Gerard-Ursin I, et al., 2023,
Modelling the relative cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine compared to investment in vector control or chemoprophylaxis
, VACCINE, Vol: 41, Pages: 3215-3223, ISSN: 0264-410X -
Journal articleWhittaker C, Hamlet A, Sherrard-Smith E, et al., 2023,
Seasonal dynamics of Anopheles stephensi and its implications for mosquito detection and emergent malaria control in the Horn of Africa
, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, Vol: 120, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0027-8424Invasion of the malaria vector Anopheles stephensi across the Horn of Africa threatens control efforts across the continent, particularly in urban settings where the vector is able to proliferate. Malaria transmission is primarily determined by the abundance of dominant vectors, which often varies seasonally with rainfall. However, it remains unclear how An. stephensi abundance changes throughout the year, despite this being a crucial input to surveillance and control activities. We collate longitudinal catch data from across its endemic range to better understand the vector's seasonal dynamics and explore the implications of this seasonality for malaria surveillance and control across the Horn of Africa. Our analyses reveal pronounced variation in seasonal dynamics, the timing and nature of which are poorly predicted by rainfall patterns. Instead, they are associated with temperature and patterns of land use; frequently differing between rural and urban settings. Our results show that timing entomological surveys to coincide with rainy periods is unlikely to improve the likelihood of detecting An. stephensi. Integrating these results into a malaria transmission model, we show that timing indoor residual spraying campaigns to coincide with peak rainfall offers little improvement in reducing disease burden compared to starting in a random month. Our results suggest that unlike other malaria vectors in Africa, rainfall may be a poor guide to predicting the timing of peaks in An. stephensi-driven malaria transmission. This highlights the urgent need for longitudinal entomological monitoring of the vector in its new environments given recent invasion and potential spread across the continent.
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Journal articleUnwin H, Sherrard-Smith E, Churcher T, et al., 2023,
Quantifying the direct and indirect protection provided by insecticide treated bed nets against malaria
, Nature Communications, Vol: 14, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 2041-1723Long lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) provide both direct and indirect protection against malaria. As pyrethroid resistance evolves in mosquito vectors, it will be useful to understand how the specific benefits LLINs afford individuals and communities may be affected. Here we use modelling to show that there is no minimum LLIN usage needed for users and non-users to benefit from community protection. Modelling results also indicate that pyrethroid resistance in local mosquitoes will likely diminish the direct and indirect benefits from insecticides, leaving the barrier effects intact, but LLINs are still expected to provide enhanced benefit over untreated nets even at high levels of pyrethroid resistance.
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Journal articleOkell LC, Kwambai TK, Dhabangi A, et al., 2023,
Projected health impact of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention among children with severe malarial anaemia in Africa
, Nature Communications, Vol: 14, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 2041-1723Children recovering from severe malarial anaemia (SMA) remain at high risk of readmission and death after discharge from hospital. However, a recent trial found that post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PDMC) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine reduces this risk. We developed a mathematical model describing the daily incidence of uncomplicated and severe malaria requiring readmission among 0–5-year old children after hospitalised SMA. We fitted the model to a multicentre clinical PDMC trial using Bayesian methods and modelled the potential impact of PDMC across malaria-endemic African countries. In the 20 highest-burden countries, we estimate that only 2–5 children need to be given PDMC to prevent one hospitalised malaria episode, and less than 100 to prevent one death. If all hospitalised SMA cases access PDMC in moderate-to-high transmission areas, 38,600 (range 16,900–88,400) malaria-associated readmissions could be prevented annually, depending on access to hospital care. We estimate that recurrent SMA post-discharge constitutes 19% of all SMA episodes in moderate-to-high transmission settings.
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Journal articleThompson HA, Hogan AB, Walker PGT, et al., 2022,
Seasonal use case for the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a mathematical modelling study
, The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 10, Pages: e1782-e1792, ISSN: 2214-109XBACKGROUND: A 2021 clinical trial of seasonal RTS,S/AS01E (RTS,S) vaccination showed that vaccination was non-inferior to seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) in preventing clinical malaria. The combination of these two interventions provided significant additional protection against clinical and severe malaria outcomes. Projections of the effect of this novel approach to RTS,S vaccination in seasonal transmission settings for extended timeframes and across a range of epidemiological settings are needed to inform policy recommendations. METHODS: We used a mathematical, individual-based model of malaria transmission that was fitted to data on the relationship between entomological inoculation rate and parasite prevalence, clinical disease, severe disease, and deaths from multiple sites across Africa. The model was validated with results from a phase 3b trial assessing the effect of SV-RTS,S in Mali and Burkina Faso. We developed three intervention efficacy models with varying degrees and durations of protection for our population-level modelling analysis to assess the potential effect of an RTS,S vaccination schedule based on age (doses were delivered to children aged 6 months, 7·5 months, and 9 months for the first three doses, and at 27 months of age for the fourth dose) or season (children aged 5-17 months at the time of first vaccination received the first three doses in the 3 months preceding the transmission season, with any subsequent doses up to five doses delivered annually) in seasonal transmission settings both in the absence and presence of SMC with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine. This is modelled as a full therapeutic course delivered every month for four or five months of the peak in transmission season. Estimates of cases and deaths averted in a population of 100 000 children aged 0-5 years were calculated over a 15-year time period for a range of levels of malaria transmission intensity (Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence i
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ReportTopazian H, Schmit N, Gerard-Ursin I, et al., 2022,
Modelling the relative cost-effectiveness Of The Rts,S vaccine compared to other recommended malaria interventions
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Journal articleSamuels AM, Towett O, Seda B, et al., 2022,
Diagnostic Performance of Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification and Ultrasensitive Rapid Diagnostic Tests for Malaria Screening Among Pregnant Women in Kenya.
, J Infect Dis, Vol: 226, Pages: 696-707BACKGROUND: Screen-and-treat strategies with sensitive diagnostic tests may reduce malaria-associated adverse pregnancy outcomes. We conducted a diagnostic accuracy study to evaluate new point-of-care tests to screen pregnant women for malaria at their first antenatal visit in western Kenya. METHODS: Consecutively women were tested for Plasmodium infection by expert microscopy, conventional rapid diagnostic test (cRDT), ultra sensitive RDT (usRDT), and loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP). Photoinduced electron-transfer polymerase chain reaction (PET-PCR) served as the reference standard. Diagnostic performance was calculated and modelled at low parasite densities. RESULTS: Between May and September 2018, 172 of 482 screened participants (35.7%) were PET-PCR positive. Relative to PET-PCR, expert microscopy was least sensitive (40.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 32.7%-47.9%), followed by cRDT (49.4%; 95% CI, 41.7%-57.1), usRDT (54.7%; 95% CI, 46.9%-62.2%), and LAMP (68.6%; 95% CI, 61.1%-75.5%). Test sensitivities were comparable in febrile women (n = 90). Among afebrile women (n = 392), the geometric-mean parasite density was 29 parasites/µL and LAMP (sensitivity = 61.9%) and usRDT (43.2%) detected 1.74 (95% CI, 1.31-2.30) and 1.21 (95% CI, 88-2.21) more infections than cRDT (35.6%). Per our model, tests performed similarly at densities >200 parasites/µL. At 50 parasites/µL, the sensitivities were 45%, 56%, 62%, and 74% with expert microscopy, cRDT, usRDT, and LAMP, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This first-generation usRDT provided moderate improvement in detecting low-density infections in afebrile pregnant women compared to cRDTs.
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Journal articleWatson OJ, Gao B, Nguyen TD, et al., 2022,
Pre-existing partner-drug resistance to artemisinin combination therapies facilitates the emergence and spread of artemisinin resistance: a consensus modelling study
, The Lancet Microbe, Vol: 3, Pages: e701-e710, ISSN: 2666-5247BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-resistant genotypes of Plasmodium falciparum have now emerged a minimum of six times on three continents despite recommendations that all artemisinins be deployed as artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs). Widespread resistance to the non-artemisinin partner drugs in ACTs has the potential to limit the clinical and resistance benefits provided by combination therapy. We aimed to model and evaluate the long-term effects of high levels of partner-drug resistance on the early emergence of artemisinin-resistant genotypes. METHODS: Using a consensus modelling approach, we used three individual-based mathematical models of Plasmodium falciparum transmission to evaluate the effects of pre-existing partner-drug resistance and ACT deployment on the evolution of artemisinin resistance. Each model simulates 100 000 individuals in a particular transmission setting (malaria prevalence of 1%, 5%, 10%, or 20%) with a daily time step that updates individuals' infection status, treatment status, immunity, genotype-specific parasite densities, and clinical state. We modelled varying access to antimalarial drugs if febrile (coverage of 20%, 40%, or 60%) with one primary ACT used as first-line therapy: dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PPQ), artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ), or artemether-lumefantrine (AL). The primary outcome was time until 0·25 580Y allele frequency for artemisinin resistance (the establishment time). FINDINGS: Higher frequencies of pre-existing partner-drug resistant genotypes lead to earlier establishment of artemisinin resistance. Across all models, a 10-fold increase in the frequency of partner-drug resistance genotypes on average corresponded to loss of artemisinin efficacy 2-12 years earlier. Most reductions in time to artemisinin resistance establishment were observed after an increase in frequency of the partner-drug resistance genotype from 0·0 to 0·10. INTERPRETATION: Partner-drug resistance in ACTs facil
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Journal articleSherrard-Smith E, Ngufor C, Sanou A, et al., 2022,
Inferring the epidemiological benefit of indoor vector control interventions against malaria from mosquito data
, Nature Communications, Vol: 13, ISSN: 2041-1723The cause of malaria transmission has been known for over a century but it is still unclear whether entomological measures are sufficiently reliable to inform policy decisions in human health. Decision-making on the effectiveness of new insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and the indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) have been based on epidemiological data, typically collected in cluster-randomised control trials. The number of these trials that can be conducted is limited. Here we use a systematic review to highlight that efficacy estimates of the same intervention may vary substantially between trials. Analyses indicate that mosquito data collected in experimental hut trials can be used to parameterize mechanistic models for Plasmodium falciparum malaria and reliably predict the epidemiological efficacy of quick-acting, neuro-acting ITNs and IRS. Results suggest that for certain types of ITNs and IRS using this framework instead of clinical endpoints could support policy and expedite the widespread use of novel technologies.
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Journal articlede Cola MA, Sawadogo B, Richardson S, et al., 2022,
Impact of seasonal malaria chemoprevention on prevalence of malaria infection in malaria indicator surveys in Burkina Faso and Nigeria
, BMJ Global Health, Vol: 7, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2059-7908Background In 2012, the WHO issued a policy recommendation for the use of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) to children 3–59 months in areas of highly seasonal malaria transmission. Clinical trials have found SMC to prevent around 75% of clinical malaria. Impact under routine programmatic conditions has been assessed during research studies but there is a need to identify sustainable methods to monitor impact using routinely collected data.Methods Data from Demographic Health Surveys were merged with rainfall, geographical and programme data in Burkina Faso (2010, 2014, 2017) and Nigeria (2010, 2015, 2018) to assess impact of SMC. We conducted mixed-effects logistic regression to predict presence of malaria infection in children aged 6–59 months (rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and microscopy, separately).Results We found strong evidence that SMC administration decreases odds of malaria measured by RDT during SMC programmes, after controlling for seasonal factors, age, sex, net use and other variables (Burkina Faso OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.37, p<0.001; Nigeria OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.55, p<0.001). The odds of malaria were lower up to 2 months post-SMC in Burkina Faso (1-month post-SMC: OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.72, p=0.01; 2 months post-SMC: OR: 0.33, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.64, p<0.001). The odds of malaria were lower up to 1 month post-SMC in Nigeria but was not statistically significant (1-month post-SMC 0.49, 95% CI 0.23 to 1.05, p=0.07). A similar but weaker effect was seen for microscopy (Burkina Faso OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.52, p<0.001; Nigeria OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.76, p<0.001).Conclusions Impact of SMC can be detected in reduced prevalence of malaria from data collected through household surveys if conducted during SMC administration or within 2 months afterwards. Such evidence could contribute to broader evaluation of impact of SMC programmes.
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Journal articleWhittaker C, Winskill P, Sinka M, et al., 2022,
A novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations
, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol: 289, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 0962-8452Understanding the temporal dynamics of mosquito populations underlying vector-borne disease transmission is key to optimizing control strategies. Many questions remain surrounding the drivers of these dynamics and how they vary between species—questions rarely answerable from individual entomological studies (that typically focus on a single location or species). We develop a novel statistical framework enabling identification and classification of time series with similar temporal properties, and use this framework to systematically explore variation in population dynamics and seasonality in anopheline mosquito time series catch data spanning seven species, 40 years and 117 locations across mainland India. Our analyses reveal pronounced variation in dynamics across locations and between species in the extent of seasonality and timing of seasonal peaks. However, we show that these diverse dynamics can be clustered into four ‘dynamical archetypes’, each characterized by distinct temporal properties and associated with a largely unique set of environmental factors. Our results highlight that a range of environmental factors including rainfall, temperature, proximity to static water bodies and patterns of land use (particularly urbanicity) shape the dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations, and provide a generically applicable framework to better identify and understand patterns of seasonal variation in vectors relevant to public health.
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