In this section
@article{Simmons:2026:10.1371/journal.pmed.1004874,
author = {Simmons, OS and Vicco, A and Martínez-Vega, RA and Ramos-Castañeda, J and Dorigatti, I},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1004874},
journal = {PLoS Medicine},
title = {Overall and serotype-specific dengue virus transmission intensity in Mexico, 2016–2023: a modelling study of case-notification data},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004874},
volume = {23},
year = {2026}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - BackgroundMexico, and the Americas region more widely, have experienced increased dengue incidence in recent years, and there are concerns that the changing climate may enhance dengue virus (DENV) transmission in the future. Whilst previous studies have characterised spatial heterogeneities in the long-term average risk of DENV infection in Mexico, the extent to which DENV transmission changes year-to-year has not been investigated. Furthermore, the extent to which DENV’s four serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3 and DENV-4) may differ in their transmissibility remains poorly characterised, both in Mexico and globally.Methods and findingsIn this study, we characterised the spatial and temporal variations in DENV transmission intensity, as defined by the force of infection, across 27 states in Mexico. We analysed annual dengue case data reported to the National Epidemiological Surveillance System (SINAVE) in Mexico between 2016 and 2023, which comprised 833,629 probable or confirmed cases, using established catalytic models and a new, serotype-specific extension of these models that characterises differences in the transmission intensity of the different serotypes. We found evidence of large spatial, temporal, and serotype-specific heterogeneities in transmission intensity across Mexico. Serotype-specific force of infection estimates suggest that DENV-1 and DENV-2 have historically circulated at high levels across Mexico, with DENV-4 showing a low transmission intensity throughout the study period. We found evidence of increasing DENV-3 transmission intensity across some states in recent years, coinciding with large outbreaks. The extent to which the serotype-specific transmission intensity estimates generated in this study are affected by potential heterogeneities in case reporting across states and through time remains to be validated in future studies.ConclusionsThis work quantifies serotype-specific differences in DENV transmission intensity using routinely co
AU - Simmons,OS
AU - Vicco,A
AU - Martínez-Vega,RA
AU - Ramos-Castañeda,J
AU - Dorigatti,I
DO - 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004874
PY - 2026///
SN - 1549-1277
TI - Overall and serotype-specific dengue virus transmission intensity in Mexico, 2016–2023: a modelling study of case-notification data
T2 - PLoS Medicine
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004874
UR - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004874
VL - 23
ER -
For any enquiries related to the Centre please contact:
Scientific Manager
Susannah Fisher
mrc.gida@imperial.ac.uk
External Relationships and Communications Manager
Dr Sabine van Elsland
s.van-elsland@imperial.ac.uk