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  • Journal article
    Yordanova M, Evison SEF, Gill RJ, Graystock Pet al., 2022,

    The threat of pesticide and disease co-exposure to managed and wild bee larvae

    , International Journal for Parasitology: Parasites and Wildlife, Vol: 17, Pages: 319-326, ISSN: 2213-2244

    Brood diseases and pesticides can reduce the survival of bee larvae, reduce bee populations, and negatively influence ecosystem biodiversity. However, major gaps persist in our knowledge regarding the routes and implications of co-exposure to these stressors in managed and wild bee brood. In this review, we evaluate the likelihood for co-exposure to brood pathogen and pesticide stressors by examining the routes of potential co-exposure and the possibility for pollen and nectar contaminated with pathogens and pesticides to become integrated into brood food. Furthermore, we highlight ways in which pesticides may increase brood disease morbidity directly, through manipulating host immunity, and indirectly through disrupting microbial communities in the guts of larvae, or compromising brood care provided by adult bees. Lastly, we quantify the brood research bias towards Apis species and discuss the implications the bias has on brood disease and pesticide risk assessment in wild bee communities. We advise that future studies should place a higher emphasis on evaluating bee brood afflictions and their interactions with commonly encountered stressors, especially in wild bee species.

  • Journal article
    Dobson B, Barry S, Maes-Prior R, Mijic A, Woodward G, Pearse WDet al., 2022,

    Predicting catchment suitability for biodiversity at national scales

    <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Biomonitoring of water quality and catchment management are often disconnected, due to mismatching scales. Great effort and money is spent each year on routine reach-scale surveying across many sites, particularly in the UK, and typically with a focus on pre-defined indicators of organic pollution to compare observed vs expected subsets of common macroinvertebrate indicator species. Threatened species are often ignored due to their rarity as are many invasive species, which are seen as undesirable even though they are increasingly common in freshwaters, especially in urban ecosystems. However, these taxa are monitored separately for reasons related to biodiversity concerns rather than for gauging water quality. Repurposing such monitoring data could therefore provide important new biomonitoring tools that can help catchment managers to directly link the water quality that they aim to control with the biodiversity that they are trying to protect. Here we used the England Non-Native and Rare/Protected species records that track these two groups of species as a proof-of-concept for linking catchment scale management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity to a range of potential drivers across England. We used national land use (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology land cover map) and water quality indicator (Environment Agency water quality data archive) datasets to predict the presence or absence of 48 focal threatened or invasive species of concern routinely sampled by the English Environment Agency at catchment scale, with a median accuracy of 0.81 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A variety of water quality indicators and land-use types were useful in predictions, highlighting that future biomonitoring schemes could use such complementary measures to capture a wider spectrum of drivers and responses. In particular, the percentage of a catchment covered by freshwater was the single most

  • Journal article
    Prentice IC, Villegas-Diaz R, Harrison SP, 2022,

    Accounting for atmospheric carbon dioxide variations in pollen-based reconstructions of past hydroclimates.

    , Global and Planetary Change, Vol: 211, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0921-8181

    Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration directly influence the ratio of stomatal water loss to carbon uptake. This ratio (e) is a fundamental quantity for terrestrial ecosystems, as it defines the water requirement for plant growth. Statistical and analogue-based methods used to reconstruct past hydroclimate variables from fossil pollen assemblages do not take account of the effect of CO2 variations on e. Here we present a general, globally applicable method to correct for this effect. The method involves solving an equation that relates e to a climatic moisture index (MI, the ratio of mean annual precipitation to mean annual potential evapotranspiration), mean growing-season temperature, and ambient CO2. The equation is based on the least-cost optimality hypothesis, which predicts how the ratio (χ) of leaf-internal to ambient CO2 varies with vapour pressure deficit (vpd), growing-season temperature and atmospheric pressure, combined with experimental evidence on the response of χ to the CO2 level at which plants have been grown. An empirical relationship based on global climate data is used to relate vpd to MI and growing-season temperature. The solution to the equation allows past MI to be estimated from pollen-reconstructed MI, given past CO2 and temperature. This MI value can be used to estimate mean annual precipitation, accounting for the effects of orbital variations, temperature and cloud cover (inferred from MI) on potential evapotranspiration. A pollen record from semi-arid Spain that spans the last glacial interval is used to illustrate the method. Low CO2 leads to estimated MI being larger than reconstructed MI during glacial times. The CO2 effect on inferred precipitation was partly offset by increased cloud cover; nonetheless, inferred precipitation was greater than present almost throughout the glacial period. This method allows a more robust reconstruction of past hydroclimatic variations than currently available tools.

  • Journal article
    Henson SA, Laufkotter C, Leung S, Giering SLC, Palevsky H, Cavan ELet al., 2022,

    Uncertain response of ocean biological carbon export in a changing world

    , NATURE GEOSCIENCE, Vol: 15, Pages: 248-254, ISSN: 1752-0894
  • Journal article
    Gan W, Nóbrega R, Prentice IC, 2022,

    Analysis of vegetation modelling uncertainties due to soil moisture stress during droughts

    <jats:p>&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Many model uncertainties results from parameter tuning to compensate for errors in model outputs. A number of studies have focused on the analysis of uncertainties in modelled gross primary production (GPP), particularly with regard to the representation of soil moisture stress. GPP is often overestimated by models during dry periods in water-limited regions, and this bias increases during drought events. Soil moisture stress functions are widely applied to correct this. However, soil moisture stress is not always the direct constraining factor on GPP, and the functions adopted by models do not correspond to accepted mechanisms. We have used eco-evolutionary optimality principles, via the so-called P model, to estimate carbon uptake at sites where leaf area index (LAI) was routinely measured. We used observational networks (including FLUXNET) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) data from satellites. By comparing modelled and observed GPP we determined whether there is a significant difference between model performance during the dry and wet seasons, or between energy- and water-limited sites. We found that the soil moisture stress function used in one version of the P models essentially compensates for uncertainties in fAPAR data from satellites, especially in grasslands and other areas subject to seasonal drought. This situation is problematic, since soil moisture is a driver or modulator of other ecosystem processes, including soil evaporation and runoff generation. A possible way forward involves implementing phenological components dependent on soil and atmospheric conditions. The new challenge this poses is to apply eco-evolutionary optimality principles to model the seasonal time course of LAI, which is often poorly simulated by complex ecosystem models.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;</jats:p>

  • Journal article
    Lavergne A, Harrison SP, Prentice IC, 2022,

    Investigating C3/C4 plants competition using carbon isotopes and optimality principles

    <jats:p>&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Understanding the mechanisms underlying changes in carbon isotope discrimination (&amp;amp;#916;&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;13&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt;C) in C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;3&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; and C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;4&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; plants is critical for predicting the C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;3&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;/C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;4&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; fraction in mixed ecosystems. Variations in &amp;amp;#916;&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;13&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt;C are closely related to changes in the stomatal limitation of photosynthesis (i.e. the ratio of leaf internal to ambient partial pressure of CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;, &amp;lt;em&amp;gt;c&amp;lt;/em&amp;gt;&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;i&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;/&amp;lt;em&amp;gt;c&amp;lt;/em&amp;gt;&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;a&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;), which are in turn determined by environmental variables, but also depend on the pathway of carbon assimilation. For instance, isotopic fractionation during the diffusion of CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; through the stomata primarily influences &amp;amp;#916;&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;13&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt;C in C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;4&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; plants, while fractionation during Rubisco carboxylation has a stronger imprint on &amp;amp;#916;&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;13&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt;C in C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;3&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; plants. As a result, C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;3&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; plants are depleted in &amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;13&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt;C compared to C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;4&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; plants. Isotopic measurements can thus be used as tracers of physiological processes in plants.&amp;lt;/p&am

  • Journal article
    Mengoli G, Harrison SP, Prentice IC, 2022,

    Towards a land surface model based on optimality principles

    <jats:p>&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Plants take up water from the soil via roots and release it into the atmosphere through stomata; uptake of CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; from the atmosphere also proceeds through the stomata, implying tight coupling of transpiration and photosynthesis. We distinguish leaf-level (biochemical and stomatal) responses to external stimuli on different timescales: fast responses taking place over seconds to hours, and longer-term (acclimation) responses taking place over weeks to months. Typically, land-surface models (LSMs) have focused on the fast responses, and have not accounted for acclimation responses, although these can be different in magnitude and even in sign. We have developed a method that explicitly separates these two timescales in order to implement an existing optimality-based model, the P model, with a sub-daily timestep; and, thereby, to include acclimated responses within an LSM framework. The resulting model, compared to flux-tower gross primary production (GPP) data in five &amp;amp;#8220;well-watered&amp;amp;#8221; biomes from boreal to tropical, correctly reproduces diurnal cycles of GPP throughout the growing season. No changes of parameters are required between biomes, because optimality ensures that current parameter values are always adapted to the local environment. This is a clear practical advantage because it eliminates the need to specify different parameter values for different plant functional types. However, in areas with large seasonal variations in moisture variability, the model does not perform well. Here we address the issue of soil-moisture controls on GPP, which is a challenging issue for LSMs in general. We note two problems: an error in magnitude, and an error in shape. The model tends to overestimate GPP in dry areas because it does not consider the effect of low soil moisture (as opposed to atmospheric dryness) on photosynthesis; and it does not simul

  • Journal article
    Nóbrega R, Prentice IC, 2022,

    Rapid and temporary increases in low flows in the Amazon explained by changes in root-zone water storage

    <jats:p>&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Increases in streamflow are often attributed to land-cover clearing (LCC) on the basis that it reduces soil infiltration capacity and increases surface runoff. Nonetheless, these changes can result from different hydrological mechanisms depending on the vegetation, and temporal and spatial scales. LCC triggers a series of changes in hydrological fluxes that have non-linear responses to precipitation and that were established upon the long-term balance with regional climatological, edaphic, and geological characteristics. We analysed streamflow and root zone water capacity (RZSC) to identify underlying relationships between stream dynamics and water consumption by plants. We used a time-series segmentation and residual trend analysis on streamflow and precipitation of high-order tributaries of the Tapaj&amp;amp;#243;s River whose catchments underwent intense land-use changes over the past decades. We estimated the RZSC using the &amp;quot;Earth observation-based&amp;quot; mass-curve balance method by considering the annual land-cover changes over a &amp;gt;30-year period. We show that the reduction in the RZWC caused by changes in the water consumption by plants over the dry season is tightly associated with the increased baseflow contribution to rivers. Finally, we analysed gross primary productivity (GPP) and ET estimates generated by a model based on eco-evolutionary optimality that integrates the water and carbon cycles at the canopy level. We found that trends in ET from croplands are not as pronounced as trends in GPP. Although RZWC is quantified using the water deficit driven by ET, changes in RZWC are more correlated to changes in GPP. We show that the potential effects of vegetation responses to increasing atmospheric CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; concentrations on streamflow are still outweighed by impacts of land-use change on low flows in Amazon rivers. However, this might

  • Journal article
    Shah T, Mashimba FH, Suleiman HO, Mbailwa YS, Schneider J, Zizka G, Savolainen V, Larridon I, Darbyshire Iet al., 2022,

    Phylogenetics of <i>Ochna</i> (Ochnaceae) and a new infrageneric classification

    , BOTANICAL JOURNAL OF THE LINNEAN SOCIETY, Vol: 198, Pages: 361-381, ISSN: 0024-4074
  • Journal article
    Gregory N, Ewers RM, Chung AYC, Cator LJet al., 2022,

    Oil palm expansion increases the vectorial capacity of dengue vectors in Malaysian Borneo

    , PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1935-2727

    Changes in land-use and the associated shifts in environmental conditions can have large effects on the transmission and emergence of mosquito-borne disease. Mosquito-borne disease are particularly sensitive to these changes because mosquito growth, reproduction, survival and susceptibility to infection are all thermally sensitive traits, and land use change dramatically alters local microclimate. Predicting disease transmission under environmental change is increasingly critical for targeting mosquito-borne disease control and for identifying hotspots of disease emergence. Mechanistic models offer a powerful tool for improving these predictions. However, these approaches are limited by the quality and scale of temperature data and the thermal response curves that underlie predictions. Here, we used fine-scale temperature monitoring and a combination of empirical, laboratory and temperature-dependent estimates to estimate the vectorial capacity of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes across a tropical forest-oil palm plantation conversion gradient in Malaysian Borneo. We found that fine-scale differences in temperature between logged forest and oil palm plantation sites were not sufficient to produce differences in temperature-dependent demographic trait estimates using published thermal performance curves. However, when measured under field conditions a key parameter, adult abundance, differed significantly between land-use types, resulting in estimates of vectorial capacity that were 1.5 times higher in plantations than in forests. The prediction that oil palm plantations would support mosquito populations with higher vectorial capacity was robust to uncertainties in our adult survival estimates. These results provide a mechanistic basis for understanding the effects of forest conversion to agriculture on mosquito-borne disease risk, and a framework for interpreting emergent relationships between land-use and disease transmission. As the burden of Ae. albopictus-vectored d

  • Report
    Morris O, Barquín J, Belgrano A, Blanchard J, Bull C, Layer-Dobra K, Lauridsen R, O’Gorman E, Guõbergsson G, Woodward Get al., 2022,

    New strategies for sustainable fisheries management: A case study of Atlantic salmon

    , New strategies for sustainable fisheries management: A case study of Atlantic salmon, http://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: The Grantham Institute, 37

    This briefing paper considers the alarming declines in fish stocks in recent years, and how holistic, integrated approaches can help manage fish stocks within biologically sustainable limits. Using Atlantic salmon as a case study, the authors highlight the challenges facing fisheries management and conservation, and the implications for policy and management.

  • Journal article
    Chan AHH, Qi L, Burke T, Pearse W, Schroeder Jet al., 2022,

    Machine learning pipeline extracts biologically significant data automatically from avian monitoring videos

  • Journal article
    Beaghton PJ, Burt A, 2022,

    Gene drives and population persistence vs elimination: The impact of spatial structure and inbreeding at low density

    , Theoretical Population Biology, Vol: 145, ISSN: 0040-5809

    Synthetic gene drive constructs are being developed to control disease vectors, invasive species, and other pest species. In a well-mixed random mating population a sufficiently strong gene drive is expected to eliminate a target population, but it is not clear whether the same is true when spatial processes play a role. In species with an appropriate biology it is possible that drive-induced reductions in density might lead to increased inbreeding, reducing the efficacy of drive, eventually leading to suppression rather than elimination, regardless of how strong the drive is. To investigate this question we analyse a series of explicitly solvable stochastic models considering a range of scenarios for the relative timing of mating, reproduction, and dispersal and analyse the impact of two different types of gene drive, a Driving Y chromosome and a homing construct targeting an essential gene. We find in all cases a sufficiently strong Driving Y will go to fixation and the population will be eliminated, except in the one life history scenario (reproduction and mating in patches followed by dispersal) where low density leads to increased inbreeding, in which case the population persists indefinitely, tending to either a stable equilibrium or a limit cycle. These dynamics arise because Driving Y males have reduced mating success, particularly at low densities, due to having fewer sisters to mate with. Increased inbreeding at low densities can also prevent a homing construct from eliminating a population. For both types of drive, if there is strong inbreeding depression, then the population cannot be rescued by inbreeding and it is eliminated. These results highlight the potentially critical role that low-density-induced inbreeding and inbreeding depression (and, by extension, other sources of Allee effects) can have on the eventual impact of a gene drive on a target population.

  • Journal article
    Tobias JA, Sheard C, Pigot AL, Devenish AJM, Yang J, Sayol F, Neate-Clegg MHC, Alioravainen N, Weeks TL, Barber RA, Walkden PA, MacGregor HEA, Jones SEI, Vincent C, Phillips AG, Marples NM, Montano-Centellas FA, Leandro-Silva V, Claramunt S, Darski B, Freeman BG, Bregman TP, Cooney CR, Hughes EC, Capp EJR, Varley ZK, Friedman NR, Korntheuer H, Corrales-Vargas A, Trisos CH, Weeks BC, Hanz DM, Topfer T, Bravo GA, Remes V, Nowak L, Carneiro LS, Moncada R AJ, Matysiokova B, Baldassarre DT, Martinez-Salinas A, Wolfe JD, Chapman PM, Daly BG, Sorensen MC, Neu A, Ford MA, Mayhew RJ, Fabio Silveira L, Kelly DJ, Annorbah NND, Pollock HS, Grabowska-Zhang AM, McEntee JP, Carlos T Gonzalez J, Meneses CG, Munoz MC, Powell LL, Jamie GA, Matthews TJ, Johnson O, Brito GRR, Zyskowski K, Crates R, Harvey MG, Jurado Zevallos M, Hosner PA, Bradfer-Lawrence T, Maley JM, Stiles FG, Lima HS, Provost KL, Chibesa M, Mashao M, Howard JT, Mlamba E, Chua MAH, Li B, Gomez MI, Garcia NC, Packert M, Fuchs J, Ali JR, Derryberry EP, Carlson ML, Urriza RC, Brzeski KE, Prawiradilaga DM, Rayner MJ, Miller ET, Bowie RCK, Lafontaine R-M, Scofield RP, Lou Y, Somarathna L, Lepage D, Illif M, Neuschulz EL, Templin M, Dehling DM, Cooper JC, Pauwels OSG, Analuddin K, Fjeldsa J, Seddon N, Sweet PR, DeClerck FAJ, Naka LN, Brawn JD, Aleixo A, Bohning-Gaese K, Rahbek C, Fritz SA, Thomas GH, Schleuning Met al., 2022,

    AVONET: morphological, ecological and geographical data for all birds

    , Ecology Letters, Vol: 25, Pages: 581-597, ISSN: 1461-023X

    Functional traits offer a rich quantitative framework for developing and testing theories in evolutionary biology, ecology and ecosystem science. However, the potential of functional traits to drive theoretical advances and refine models of global change can only be fully realised when species-level information is complete. Here we present the AVONET dataset containing comprehensive functional trait data for all birds, including six ecological variables, 11 continuous morphological traits, and information on range size and location. Raw morphological measurements are presented from 90,020 individuals of 11,009 extant bird species sampled from 181 countries. These data are also summarised as species averages in three taxonomic formats, allowing integration with a global phylogeny, geographical range maps, IUCN Red List data and the eBird citizen science database. The AVONET dataset provides the most detailed picture of continuous trait variation for any major radiation of organisms, offering a global template for testing hypotheses and exploring the evolutionary origins, structure and functioning of biodiversity.

  • Journal article
    Tobias JA, 2022,

    A bird in the hand: global-scale morphological trait datasets open new frontiers of ecology, evolution and ecosystem science

    , Ecology Letters, Vol: 25, Pages: 573-580, ISSN: 1461-023X
  • Journal article
    Freeman BG, Weeks T, Schluter D, Tobias JAet al., 2022,

    The latitudinal gradient in rates of evolution for bird beaks, a species interaction trait

    , Ecology Letters, Vol: 25, Pages: 635-646, ISSN: 1461-023X

    Where is evolution fastest? The biotic interactions hypothesis proposes that greater species richness creates more ecological opportunity, driving faster evolution at low latitudes, whereas the ‘empty niches’ hypothesis proposes that ecological opportunity is greater where diversity is low, spurring faster evolution at high latitudes. We tested these contrasting predictions by analysing rates of beak evolution for a global dataset of 1141 avian sister species. Rates of beak size evolution are similar across latitudes, with some evidence that beak shape evolves faster in the temperate zone, consistent with the empty niches hypothesis. The empty niches hypothesis is further supported by a meta-analysis showing that rates of trait evolution and recent speciation are generally faster in the temperate zone, whereas rates of molecular evolution are slightly faster in the tropics. Our results suggest that drivers of evolutionary diversification are either similar across latitudes or more potent in the temperate zone, thus calling into question multiple hypotheses that invoke faster tropical evolution to explain the latitudinal diversity gradient.

  • Journal article
    Hordley LA, Powney GD, Brereton T, Gillings S, Petchey OL, Roy DB, Tobias JA, Williams J, Oliver THet al., 2022,

    Developing a national indicator of functional connectivity

    , Ecological Indicators, Vol: 136, ISSN: 1470-160X

    Habitat loss is a significant driver of biodiversity loss, causing fragmentation into small, isolated patches of suitable land cover. This reduces the permeability of landscapes to the movement of individuals and reduces the likelihood of metapopulation persistence. Quantifying functional connectivity, the ability of a focal species to move between resource patches, is therefore essential for conservation management. There is substantial evidence supporting a technique based on ‘population synchrony’- the degree of correlation in time-series of annual population growth rates between different long-term monitoring sites, to provide a measure of functional connectivity. However, synchronised population dynamics are not only driven by the movement of individuals between sites, but also shared environmental conditions which must be accounted for. Here, we use species survey data from over four decades to investigate average levels and temporal trends in population synchrony for 58 British bird and butterfly species. We first show that population synchrony is significantly associated with synchrony in some seasonal climatic variables. Once we accounted for spatiotemporal climatic patterns, we found that synchrony in butterflies declined over time by 71% between 1985 and 2000 but increased by 64% in recent years. Synchrony in birds showed some decline between 1999 and 2005, after which there appears to being recovery, however most species (74%) show no significant overall change in synchrony. Our proposed indicator provides a ‘species-eye-view’ of functional connectivity using widely available abundance data. Developing such indicators of functional connectivity, which can be updated annually, is crucial to improve the effectiveness of land management strategies for conservation under increasing environmental change.

  • Journal article
    Chen C, Riley W, Prentice IC, Keenan Tet al., 2022,

    CO2 fertilization of terrestrial photosynthesis inferred from site to global scales

    , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, Vol: 119, ISSN: 0027-8424

    Global photosynthesis is increasing with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, a response known as the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE), but the key processes of CFE are not constrained and therefore remain uncertain. Here we quantify CFE by combining observations from a globally distributed network of eddy covariance measurements with a novel analyticalframework based on three well-established photosynthetic optimization theories. We report a strong enhancement of photosynthesis across the observational network (9.1 gC m–2 yr–2) and show that the CFE is responsible for 44% of the gross primary production (GPP) enhancementsince the 2000s, with additional contributions primarily from warming (28%). Soil moisture and specific humidity are the two largest contributors to GPP interannual variation through their influences on plant hydraulics. Applying our framework to satellite observations and meteorological reanalysis data, we diagnose a global CO2-induced GPP trend of 4.4 gC m–2 yr–2, which is at least one-third stronger than the median trends of 13 Dynamic Global Vegetation Models and 8 satellite-derived GPP products, mainly due to their differences in the magnitude of CFE in evergreen broadleaf forests. These results highlight the critical role that CFE has had on the global carbon cycle in recent decades.

  • Journal article
    Morfopoulos C, Muller J-F, Stavrakou T, Bauwens M, De Smedt I, Friedlingstein P, Prentice IC, Regnier Pet al., 2022,

    Vegetation responses to climate extremes recorded by remotely sensed atmospheric formaldehyde

    , Global Change Biology, Vol: 28, Pages: 1809-1822, ISSN: 1354-1013

    Accurate monitoring of vegetation stress is required for better modelling and forecasting of primary production, in a world where heatwaves and droughts are expected to become increasingly prevalent. Variability in formaldehyde (HCHO) concentrations in the troposphere is dominated by local emissions of short-lived biogenic (BVOC) and pyrogenic volatile organic compounds. BVOCs are emitted by plants in a rapid protective response to abiotic stress, mediated by the energetic status of leaves (the excess of reducing power when photosynthetic light and dark reactions are decoupled, as occurs when stomata close in response to water stress). Emissions also increase exponentially with leaf temperature. New analytical methods for the detection of spatiotemporally contiguous extremes in remote-sensing data are applied here to satellite-derived atmospheric HCHO columns. BVOC emissions are shown to play a central role in the formation of the largest positive HCHO anomalies. Although vegetation stress can be captured by various remotely sensed quantities, spaceborne HCHO emerges as the most consistent recorder of vegetation responses to the largest climate extremes, especially in forested regions.

  • Journal article
    Medeiros GG, Antonio J, Harrison M, Della Coletta L, Soltangheisi A, Banks-Leite C, Duarte-Neto PJ, Martinelli LAet al., 2022,

    Effect of vertebrate exclusion on leaf litter decomposition in the coastal Atlantic forest of southeast Brazil

    , TROPICAL ECOLOGY, Vol: 63, Pages: 151-154, ISSN: 0564-3295
  • Journal article
    Ward D, Melbourne-Thomas J, Pecl GT, Evans K, Green M, McCormack PC, Novaglio C, Trebilco R, Bax N, Brasier MJ, Cavan EL, Edgar G, Hunt HL, Jansen J, Jones R, Lea M-A, Makomere R, Mull C, Semmens JM, Shaw J, Tinch D, van Steveninck TJ, Layton Cet al., 2022,

    Safeguarding marine life: conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems

    , REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES, Vol: 32, Pages: 65-100, ISSN: 0960-3166
  • Journal article
    Stewart PS, Voskamp A, Santini L, Biber MF, Devenish AJM, Hof C, Willis SG, Tobias JAet al., 2022,

    Global impacts of climate change on avian functional diversity

    , ECOLOGY LETTERS, Vol: 25, Pages: 673-685, ISSN: 1461-023X
  • Journal article
    Crouch NMA, Tobias JA, 2022,

    The causes and ecological context of rapid morphological evolution in birds

    , ECOLOGY LETTERS, Vol: 25, Pages: 611-623, ISSN: 1461-023X
  • Journal article
    Sol D, Garcia-Porta J, Gonzalez-Lagos C, Pigot AL, Trisos C, Tobias JAet al., 2022,

    A test of Darwin's naturalization conundrum in birds reveals enhanced invasion success in the presence of close relatives

    , ECOLOGY LETTERS, Vol: 25, Pages: 661-672, ISSN: 1461-023X
  • Journal article
    Weeks BC, Naeem S, Lasky JR, Tobias JAet al., 2022,

    Diversity and extinction risk are inversely related at a global scale

    , ECOLOGY LETTERS, Vol: 25, Pages: 697-707, ISSN: 1461-023X
  • Journal article
    McFadden IR, Fritz SA, Zimmermann NE, Pellissier L, Kissling WD, Tobias JA, Schleuning M, Graham CHet al., 2022,

    Global plant-frugivore trait matching is shaped by climate and biogeographic history

    , ECOLOGY LETTERS, Vol: 25, Pages: 686-696, ISSN: 1461-023X
  • Journal article
    Wayman JP, Sadler JP, Pugh TAM, Martin TE, Tobias JA, Matthews TJet al., 2022,

    Assessing taxonomic and functional change in British breeding bird assemblages over time

    , Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol: 31, Pages: 925-939, ISSN: 1466-822X

    AimThe aim was to identify the primary drivers of compositional change in breeding bird assemblages over a 40-year period.LocationBritain.Time periodFrom 1970 to 2010.Major taxa studiedBirds.MethodsUsing morphological trait measurements and a dataset of presence–absence data for British breeding birds surveyed in 10 km × 10 km hectads during two time periods, we calculated temporal taxonomic and functional beta diversity for each hectad alongside the change in species richness, mean nearest taxon distance (MNTD) and mean pairwise distance (MPD). We also estimated potential drivers of beta diversity, including climatic and land-use and land-cover (LULC) change variables, elevation and assemblage species richness in 1970 (1970rich). We used random forest regressions to test which variables best explained compositional change in the assemblages. We also assessed spatial taxonomic and functional change by analysing multiple-site beta diversity and pairwise dissimilarities between time periods.ResultsInitial (1970) species richness was the most important predictor (highest importance score) across all models, with areas characterized by higher initial richness experiencing less assemblage change overall. The coordinates included to capture spatial autocorrelation in the data were also important predictors of change. Most climate and LULC variables had relatively low explanatory power; elevation and average temperature were the most influential. All metrics increased slightly with increasing elevation, except for species richness change and MPD, which decreased.Main conclusionsThe composition of British breeding bird assemblages changed substantially between 1970 and 2010. Spatial heterogeneity increased, both taxonomically and functionally. We show evidence that hectads with larger assemblages have been buffered from temporal diversity change and that those at higher elevations changed more in composition than those at lower elevations. Overall, coarse-resolu

  • Journal article
    Fu Z, Ciais P, Prentice IC, Gentine P, Makowski D, Bastos A, Luo X, Green J, Stoy P, Yang H, Hajima Tet al., 2022,

    Atmospheric dryness reduces photosynthesis along a large range of soil water deficits

    , Nature Communications, Vol: 13, ISSN: 2041-1723

    Both low soil water content (SWC) and high atmospheric dryness (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) can negatively affect terrestrial gross primary production (GPP). The sensitivity of GPP to soil versus atmospheric dryness is difficult to disentangle, however, because of their covariation. Using global eddy-covariance observations, here we show that a decrease in SWC is not universally associated with GPP reduction. GPP increases in response to decreasing SWC when SWC is high and decreases only when SWC is below a threshold. By contrast, the sensitivity of GPP to an increase of VPD is always negative across the full SWC range. We further find canopy conductance decreases with increasing VPD (irrespective of SWC), and with decreasing SWC on drier soils. Maximum photosynthetic assimilation rate has negative sensitivity to VPD, and a positive sensitivity to decreasing SWC when SWC is high. Earth System Models underestimate the negative effect of VPD and the positive effect of SWC on GPP such that they should underestimate the GPP reduction due to increasing VPD in future climates.

  • Journal article
    Fornace K, Manin BO, Matthiopoulos J, Ferguson HM, Drakeley C, Ahmed K, Khoon KT, Ewers RM, Daim S, Chua THet al., 2022,

    A protocol for a longitudinal, observational cohort study of infection and exposure to zoonotic and vector-borne diseases across a land-use gradient in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo: a socio-ecological systems approach [version 1; peer review: 1 approved, 2 approved with reservations]

    , Wellcome Open Research, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2398-502X

    Introduction. Landscape changes disrupt environmental, social and biological systems, altering pathogen spillover and transmission risks. This study aims to quantify the impact of specific land management practices on spillover and transmission rates of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases within Malaysian Borneo. This protocol describes a cohort study with integrated ecological sampling to assess how deforestation and agricultural practices impact pathogen flow from wildlife and vector populations to human infection and detection by health facilities. This will focus on malaria, dengue and emerging arboviruses (Chikungunya and Zika), vector-borne diseases with varying contributions of simian reservoirs within this setting. Methods. A prospective longitudinal observational cohort study will be established in communities residing or working within the vicinity of the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems (SAFE) Project, a landscape gradient within Malaysian Borneo encompassing different plantation and forest types. The primary outcome of this study will be transmission intensity of selected zoonotic and vector-borne diseases, as quantified by changes in pathogen-specific antibody levels. Exposure will be measured using paired population-based serological surveys conducted at the beginning and end of the two-year cohort study. Secondary outcomes will include the distribution and infection rates of Aedes and Anopheles mosquito vectors, human risk behaviours and clinical cases reported to health facilities. Longitudinal data on human behaviour, contact with wildlife and GPS tracking of mobility patterns will be collected throughout the study period. This will be integrated with entomological surveillance to monitor densities and pathogen infection rates of Aedes and Anopheles mosquitoes relative to land cover. Within surrounding health clinics, continuous health facility surveillance will be used to monitor reported infections and febrile illnesses. Models will be develo

  • Journal article
    Phillips JA, Soto JSV, Pawar S, Koprivnikar J, Benesh DP, Molnar PKet al., 2022,

    The effects of phylogeny, habitat and host characteristics on the thermal sensitivity of helminth development

    , PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 289, ISSN: 0962-8452

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