@article{Pereira:2024:10.1126/science.adn3441,
author = {Pereira, HM and Martins, IS and Rosa, IMD and Kim, H and Leadley, P and Popp, A and van, Vuuren DP and Hurtt, G and Quoss, L and Arneth, A and Baisero, D and Bakkenes, M and Chaplin-Kramer, R and Chini, L and Di, Marco M and Ferrier, S and Fujimori, S and Guerra, CA and Harfoot, M and Harwood, TD and Hasegawa, T and Haverd, V and Havlík, P and Hellweg, S and Hilbers, JP and Hill, SLL and Hirata, A and Hoskins, AJ and Humpenöder, F and Janse, JH and Jetz, W and Johnson, JA and Krause, A and Leclère, D and Matsui, T and Meijer, JR and Merow, C and Obersteiner, M and Ohashi, H and De, Palma A and Poulter, B and Purvis, A and Quesada, B and Rondinini, C and Schipper, AM and Settele, J and Sharp, R and Stehfest, E and Strassburg, BBN and Takahashi, K and Talluto, MV and Thuiller, W and Titeux, N and Visconti, P and Ware, C and Wolf, F and Alkemade, R},
doi = {10.1126/science.adn3441},
journal = {Science},
pages = {458--465},
title = {Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.adn3441},
volume = {384},
year = {2024}
}

Download

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
AU  - Pereira,HM
AU  - Martins,IS
AU  - Rosa,IMD
AU  - Kim,H
AU  - Leadley,P
AU  - Popp,A
AU  - van,Vuuren DP
AU  - Hurtt,G
AU  - Quoss,L
AU  - Arneth,A
AU  - Baisero,D
AU  - Bakkenes,M
AU  - Chaplin-Kramer,R
AU  - Chini,L
AU  - Di,Marco M
AU  - Ferrier,S
AU  - Fujimori,S
AU  - Guerra,CA
AU  - Harfoot,M
AU  - Harwood,TD
AU  - Hasegawa,T
AU  - Haverd,V
AU  - Havlík,P
AU  - Hellweg,S
AU  - Hilbers,JP
AU  - Hill,SLL
AU  - Hirata,A
AU  - Hoskins,AJ
AU  - Humpenöder,F
AU  - Janse,JH
AU  - Jetz,W
AU  - Johnson,JA
AU  - Krause,A
AU  - Leclère,D
AU  - Matsui,T
AU  - Meijer,JR
AU  - Merow,C
AU  - Obersteiner,M
AU  - Ohashi,H
AU  - De,Palma A
AU  - Poulter,B
AU  - Purvis,A
AU  - Quesada,B
AU  - Rondinini,C
AU  - Schipper,AM
AU  - Settele,J
AU  - Sharp,R
AU  - Stehfest,E
AU  - Strassburg,BBN
AU  - Takahashi,K
AU  - Talluto,MV
AU  - Thuiller,W
AU  - Titeux,N
AU  - Visconti,P
AU  - Ware,C
AU  - Wolf,F
AU  - Alkemade,R
DO  - 10.1126/science.adn3441
EP  - 465
PY  - 2024///
SP  - 458
TI  - Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.
T2  - Science
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.adn3441
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38662818
VL  - 384
ER  - 

Download