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  • Journal article
    Warner M, Burn S, Stoye G, Aylin PP, Bottle A, Propper Cet al., 2022,

    Socioeconomic deprivation and ethnicity inequalities in disruption to NHS hospital admissions during the COVID-19 pandemic: a national observational study

    , BMJ Quality & Safety, Vol: 31, Pages: 590-598, ISSN: 2044-5415

    Introduction Hospital admissions in many countries fell dramatically at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Less is known about how care patterns differed by patient groups. We sought to determine whether areas with higher levels of socioeconomic deprivation or larger ethnic minority populations saw larger falls in emergency and planned admissions in England.Methods We conducted a national observational study of hospital care in the English National Health Service (NHS) in 2019–2020. Weekly volumes of elective (planned) and emergency admissions in 2020 compared with 2019 were calculated for each census area. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to estimate the reductions in volumes for areas in different quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation and ethnic minority populations after controlling for national time trends and local area composition.Results Between March and December 2020, there were 35.5% (3.0 million) fewer elective admissions and 22.0% (1.2 million) fewer emergency admissions with a non-COVID-19 primary diagnosis than in 2019. Areas with the largest share of ethnic minority populations experienced a 36.7% (95% CI 24.1% to 49.3%) larger reduction in non-primary COVID-19 emergency admissions compared with those with the smallest. The most deprived areas experienced a 10.1% (95% CI 2.6% to 17.7%) smaller reduction in non-COVID-19 emergency admissions compared with the least deprived. These patterns are not explained by differential prevalence of COVID-19 cases by area.Conclusions Even in a healthcare system founded on the principle of equal access for equal need, the impact of COVID-19 on NHS hospital care for non-COVID patients has not been spread evenly by ethnicity and deprivation in England. While we cannot conclusively determine the mechanisms behind these differences, they risk exacerbating prepandemic health inequalities.Data availability statementData may be obtained from a third party and are not publicly available.

  • Journal article
    Deputy M, Sahnan K, Worley G, Patel K, Balinskaite V, Bottle A, Aylin P, Burns EM, Hart A, Faiz Oet al., 2022,

    The use of, and outcomes for, inflammatory bowel disease services during the Covid-19 pandemic: a nationwide observational study

    , ALIMENTARY PHARMACOLOGY & THERAPEUTICS, Vol: 55, Pages: 836-846, ISSN: 0269-2813
  • Journal article
    Bottle A, Faitna P, Aylin PP, 2022,

    Patient-level and hospital-level variation and related time trends in COVID-19 case fatality rates during the first pandemic wave in England: multilevel modelling analysis of routine data

    , BMJ QUALITY & SAFETY, Vol: 31, Pages: 211-220, ISSN: 2044-5415
  • Conference paper
    Balinskaite V, Bottle A, Aylin P, 2021,

    Capacity planning for acute hospital inpatient care and adult critical care in England: a descriptive study using hospital administrative data

    , Annual National Conference on Public Health Science dedicated to New Research in UK Public Health, Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, Pages: 22-22, ISSN: 0140-6736
  • Journal article
    Deputy M, Rao C, Worley G, Balinskaite V, Bottle A, Aylin P, Burns EM, Faiz Oet al., 2021,

    Effect of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on mortality related to high-risk emergency and major elective surgery

    , British Journal of Surgery, Vol: 108, Pages: 754-759, ISSN: 0007-1323

    The coronavirus pandemic has had a significant impact on the provision of surgery globally. This research looked at how the pandemic has affected rates of surgery in England using administrative data. Specifically, it examined the characteristics of patients who were admitted and mortality when patients contracted coronavirus. It found that the overall risk of death did not change in 2020 compared with the same time period in 2019. It did find that the risk of death increased with coronavirus infection. The authors recommend preventive measures to ensure patient safety when restarting elective surgery during the pandemic.

  • Journal article
    Balinskaite V, Aylin P, Bottle R, 2021,

    Assessing the impact of a shadowing programme on in-hospital mortality following trainee doctors’ changeover

    , BMC Health Services Research, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-7, ISSN: 1472-6963

    BackgroundTo assess the impact on seven-day in-hospital mortality following the introduction in 2012 of a shadowing programme for new UK medical graduates requiring them to observe the doctor they are replacing for at least 4 days before starting work.MethodsData on emergency admissions were derived from Hospital Episode Statistics between 2003 and 2019. A generalised estimating equation model was used to examine whether the introduction of the programme was associated with a change in mortality.ResultsThere were 644,018 emergency admissions, of which 1.8% (7612) ended in death in hospital within a week following the admission. Throughout the study period, there was an annual increase in the number of emergency admissions during July and August, though in-hospital mortality rates declined. The generalised estimating equation analysis found no significant change in the odds of death within 7 days after admission for patients admitted on the first Wednesday in August compared with patients admitted on the last Wednesday in July (OR = 1.03, 95% CI 0.94–1.13, p = 0.53). Furthermore, there was no significant change observed for any clinical diagnosis category following the introduction of the shadowing programme.ConclusionThere was a rising trend in the number of emergency admissions over the study period, though mortality was decreasing. We found no significant association between the introduction of shadowing programme and in-hospital mortality; however, lack of power means that we cannot rule out a small effect on mortality. There are other outcomes that might have changed but were not examined in this study.

  • Journal article
    Bottle A, Faitna P, Aylin P, Cowie MRet al., 2021,

    Five-year survival and use of hospital services following ICD and CRT implantation: comparing real-world data with RCTs

    , ESC Heart Failure, Vol: 8, Pages: 2438-2447, ISSN: 2055-5822

    AimsGuidelines recommend the use of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) and/or cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) device based on the results of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), typically with selected patients and short follow-up.Methods and resultsWe describe the 5 year survival rate and use of hospital services following ICD and CRT implantation in England from April 2011 to March 2013 using the national hospital administrative database covering emergency department visits, inpatient admissions, and clinic appointments, linked to the national death register. Five-year survival was 64% after ICD implantation and 58% after CRT implantation, with median survival times of 6.8 and 6.2 years, respectively. Hospital use was high in both device groups, for the 5 years prior and after implantation, peaking around the implantation date. Most hospital activity was not primarily related to heart failure. Healthcare costs were dominated by admissions, but emergency department and clinic activity were both high. Only the CRT group saw total per-patient costs fall after the index month (implantation), driven by a slight fall in the heart failure admission rate. Patients were typically older than in the trials, but with similar co-morbidity except for substantially more atrial fibrillation and less dementia. Survival and device complications were similar to the RCTs.ConclusionsClinical and cost-effectiveness assessments of ICD and CRT implantation are supported by real-world data, although the prevalence of atrial fibrillation remains substantially higher than in the RCTs.

  • Journal article
    Ali AM, Loeffler MD, Aylin P, Bottle Aet al., 2021,

    Timing of Readmissions After Elective Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty: Does a 30-Day All-Cause Rate Capture Surgically Relevant Readmissions?

    , JOURNAL OF ARTHROPLASTY, Vol: 36, Pages: 728-733, ISSN: 0883-5403
  • Journal article
    Worley G, Almoudaris A, Bassett P, Segal J, Akbar A, Ghosh S, Aylin P, Faiz Oet al., 2021,

    Colectomy rates for ulcerative colitis in England 2003-2016

    , ALIMENTARY PHARMACOLOGY & THERAPEUTICS, Vol: 53, Pages: 484-498, ISSN: 0269-2813
  • Journal article
    Bottle R, Griffiths R, White S, Wynn-Jones H, Aylin P, Moppett I, Chowdhury E, Wilson H, Davies Bet al., 2020,

    Periprosthetic fractures: the next fragility fracture epidemic? A national observational study

    , BMJ Open, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2044-6055

    Objectives Periprosthetic fractures have considerable clinical implications for patients and financial implications for healthcare systems. This study aims to determine the burden of periprosthetic fractures of the lower and upper limbs in England and identify any factors associated with differences in treatment and outcome.Design A national, observational study.Setting England.Participants All individuals admitted to hospital with periprosthetic fractures between 1 April 2015 and 31 December 2018.Primary and secondary outcome measures Mortality, length of stay, change in rate of admissions.Methods We analysed Hospital Episode Statistics data using the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision code M96.6 (Fracture of bone following insertion of orthopaedic implant, joint prosthesis, or bone plate) to identify periprosthetic fractures recorded between April 2013 and December 2018. We determined the demographics, procedures performed, mortality rates and discharge destinations. Patient characteristics associated with having a procedure during the index admission were estimated using logistic regression. The annual rate of increase in admissions was estimated using Poisson regression.Results Between 1 April 2015 and 31 December 2018, there were 13 565 patients who had 18 888 admissions (89.5% emergency) with M96.6 in the primary diagnosis field. There was a 13% year-on-year increase in admissions for periprosthetic fracture in England during that period. Older people, people living in deprived areas and those with heart failure or neurological disorders were less likely to receive an operation. 14.4% of patients did not return home after hospital discharge. The overall inpatient mortality was 4.3% and total 30-day mortality was 3.3%.Conclusions The clinical and operational burden of periprosthetic fractures is considerable and increasing rapidly. We suggest that the management of people with periprosthetic fractures should be undertaken and f

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