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Journal articleLeelavanich D, Dorigatti I, Turner H, 2026,
The economic burden of dengue: a systematic literature review of unit costs for non-fatal episodes treated in the formal healthcare system
, BMC Infectious Diseases, ISSN: 1471-2334Background: Dengue, a vector-borne disease caused by the dengue virus, has emerged as a global public health concern, given the tenfold rise in reported cases over the last two decades. In light of the upcoming dengue interventions, country-specific cost-of-illness estimates are required to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new interventions against dengue. This study aims to conduct an updated systematic review of dengue cost-of-illness studies, extracting the relevant data, and conducting regression analysis to explore potential factors contributing to the cost variations among countries. Methods: We used the MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, and Web of Science databases to systematically search for published dengue cost-of-illness studies reporting primary data on costs per dengue episode. A descriptive analysis was conducted across all extracted studies. Linear regression analysis was performed to investigate the association between the GDP per capita and cost per episode. The quality of the included studies was also assessed. Results: Fifty-six studies were included, of which 22 used the societal perspective. The reported total cost per episode ranged from $15.0 for outpatients in Burkina Faso to $9,386.1 for intensive care unit patients in Mexico. Linear regression analysis revealed that the cost of dengue illness varies significantly across countries and regions, and was positively related to the setting’s GDP per capita. The quality assessment demonstrated that improvements are needed in future studies, particularly in the reporting of the methodology. Conclusions: Cost of dengue illness varies widely across countries and regions. Future research should focus on understanding other drivers of cost variations beyond GDP per capita to improve the cost estimates for economic evaluation studies. The results presented in this study can serve as crucial input parameters for future economic evaluations, supporting decision makers in allocating resources for dengue in
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Journal articleSilva L, Gogoi M, Lal Z, et al., 2026,
Antibiotic knowledge among ethnic minority groups in high-income countries: A mixed–methods systematic review
, Public Health in Practice, Vol: 11, Pages: 100715-100715, ISSN: 2666-5352 -
Journal articleKoemen S, Faria NR, Bastos LS, et al., 2026,
Fast and trustworthy nowcasting of dengue fever: A case study using attention-based probabilistic neural networks in São Paulo, Brazil
, EPIDEMICS, Vol: 54, ISSN: 1755-4365 -
Journal articleHowes A, Stringer A, Flaxman SR, et al., 2026,
Fast approximate Bayesian inference of HIV indicators using PCA adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature
, Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol: 618, ISSN: 0022-5193Naomi is a spatial evidence synthesis model used to produce district-level HIV epidemic indicators in sub-Saharan Africa. Multiple outcomes of policy interest, including HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy treatment coverage are jointly modelled using both household survey data and routinely reported health system data. The model is provided as a tool for countries to input their data to and generate estimates with during a yearly process supported by UNAIDS. Previously, inference has been conducted using empirical Bayes and a Gaussian approximation, implemented via the TMB R package. We propose a new inference method based on an extension of adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature to deal with more than 20 hyperparameters. Using data from Malawi, our method improves the accuracy of inferences for model parameters, while being substantially faster to run than Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the No-U-Turn sampler. Our implementation leverages the existing TMB C++ template for the model’s log-posterior, and is compatible with any model with such a template.
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Journal articleVerity R, Cori A, Mishra S, et al., 2026,
Robert Verity, Samir Bhatt, Anne Cori, Seth Flaxman, and Swapnil Mishra’s contribution to the Discussion of ‘Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response’ by Wood et al.
, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, Vol: 189, Pages: 117-119, ISSN: 0964-1998 -
Journal articleAnderson RM, 2026,
Preface
, Philosophical Transactions B, Vol: 381, ISSN: 0962-8436 -
Journal articleSlaymaker E, Calvert C, Marston M, et al., 2026,
Individual and population-level risk factors for new HIV infections among adults in Eastern and Southern Africa.
, Nat CommunDespite substantial recent declines, general population HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa remains above international targets. Better description of risk factors for new infections would improve prioritisation of interventions. Using data from population-based cohorts in Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, South Africa, Uganda, Zimbabwe we described the prevalence of risk factors for men and women aged 15-24 and 25-49 and estimated the association between individual and community-level risk factors and HIV acquisition between 2005 and 2016. Among 43,434 men and 55,919 women aged 15 to 49 there were 4,612 seroconversions. Education, marital status, male circumcision, new sexual partners, types of partner, prevalence of untreated HIV infection in the community and community partner acquisition rates were associated with HIV incidence. Only the prevalence of untreated HIV was a risk for both sexes and apparent at all ages. The prevalence of risk factors varied by age, sex and study. HIV incidence was higher in people aged 25-49 living in communities where men had high partner acquisition rates. Our results show potential for improved prevention through changed timing of prevention interventions relative to behaviour and the utility of using community characteristics to target prevention.
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Journal articleMcKenzie J, Carter C, Jackson MM, et al., 2026,
Mechanisms driving immunopathogenesis of viral exacerbations in chronic respiratory disease.
, ThoraxBACKGROUND: Exacerbations are major causes of morbidity in individuals with chronic respiratory diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma and bronchiectasis. Increasing evidence implicates respiratory viruses as predominant triggers, though the underlying immunopathogenic mechanisms remain poorly understood. NARRATIVE: This review synthesises current knowledge on the interplay between viral pathogens at the airway epithelial barrier, including structural and immunological mechanisms that may dysregulate antiviral immunity in chronic respiratory diseases. Furthermore, we discuss how perturbations in the respiratory microbiome, characterised by reduced microbial diversity, can modulate host antiviral immune defences. CONCLUSIONS: Collectively, these interconnected factors create a permissive environment predisposing to viral infection and exacerbations in chronic respiratory diseases. Understanding the complex interactions between airway structure, interferon-mediated antiviral responses, inflammation and microbiota is essential for developing targeted therapies to effectively manage virus-induced exacerbations and reduce disease burden.
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Journal articleBose I, Hadida G, Green R, et al., 2026,
Rainfall and water-related diseases, malnutrition and mortality in Low- and Middle- Income Countries: a systematic review of the epidemiological evidence
, Heliyon, Vol: 12Background Climate change is altering rainfall patterns. Rainfall has been linked to numerous health outcomes, through the impacts on water quality and quantity, but the coherence and strength of evidence across outcomes remain unclear. Objectives Understand and evaluate the strength of evidence on associations between rainfall (both low and heavy events) and health outcomes in Low- and Middle- Income Countries (LMICs). Methods A systematic review of peer-reviewed epidemiological studies quantifying associations between rainfall and human health outcomes in LMIC populations was conducted. Seven databases were searched including MEDLINE and EMBASE. Study quality was evaluated using 9 modified criteria that were previously used to assess environmental epidemiology studies. The strength of evidence for each health outcome was assessed across rainfall exposures. Results Of 23,579 papers identified, 177 met the inclusion criteria. Health outcomes included diarrheal diseases (n = 119); malnutrition (n = 35); mortality (n = 21); helminth infections (n = 6), and eye infections (n = 4). There was moderately strong evidence for positive associations between both heavy and low rainfall and all-cause diarrhea. Evidence for undernutrition was mixed, with moderate evidence of a positive association with low rainfall. Despite sharing causal pathways, diarrheal disease and nutrition studies found contrasting results for heavy rainfall, likely due to differing study designs. Studies were heterogenous in design, rainfall exposure definitions, and lag times. Studies also often lacked a clear hypothesis. Discussion There is substantial evidence that rainfall affects health in LMICs through multiple pathways. Limitations in the data (often from cross-sectional surveys) and study designs, limit the strength of evidence for several health outcomes. Specifically, studies frequently used inappropriate exposures or lags to reflect the causal pathways. In future studies, efforts should be dir
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Journal articleRECOVERY Collaborative Group, 2026,
Sotrovimab versus usual care in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial.
, Lancet Infect Dis, Vol: 26, Pages: 34-45BACKGROUND: Sotrovimab is a neutralising monoclonal antibody targeting the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of sotrovimab in the RECOVERY trial, an investigator-initiated, individually randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial testing treatments for patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. METHODS: Patients admitted with COVID-19 pneumonia to 107 UK hospitals were randomly assigned (1:1) to either usual care alone or usual care plus a single 1 g infusion of sotrovimab, using web-based unstratified randomisation. Participants were eligible if they were aged at least 18 years, or aged 12-17 years if weighing at least 40kg, and had confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia with no medical history that would put them at significant risk if they participated in the trial. Participants were retrospectively categorised as having a high antigen level if baseline serum SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen was above the median concentration (the prespecified primary efficacy population), otherwise they were categorised as having a low antigen level. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality assessed by intention to treat. Safety outcomes were assessed among all participants, regardless of antigen level. Recruitment closed on March 31, 2024, when funding ended. The trial is registered with ISRCTN (50189673) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04381936). FINDINGS: From Jan 4, 2022, to March 19, 2024, 1723 patients were enrolled in the RECOVERY sotrovimab comparison. Of these, 828 (48%) were assigned to usual care plus sotrovimab and 895 (52%) were assigned to usual care only. Mean patient age was 70·7 years (SD 14·8) and 1033 (60%) were male. 720 (42%) patients were classified as having a high antigen level, 717 (42%) as having a low antigen level, and 286 (17%) had unknown antigen status. 1389 (81%) patients were vaccinated, 1179 (82%) of 1438 patients with known serostatus had anti-spike antibodies at randomisation, and 1021 (>
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