BibTex format
@article{Cooper:2022:10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00453-9,
author = {Cooper, LV and Bandyopadhyay, AS and Gumede, N and Mach, O and Mkanda, P and Ndoutabé, M and Okiror, SO and Ramirez-Gonzalez, A and Touray, K and Wanyoike, S and Grassly, NC and Blake, IM},
doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00453-9},
journal = {Lancet Infectious Diseases},
pages = {284--294},
title = {Risk factors for the spread of vaccine-derived type 2 polioviruses after global withdrawal of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine and the effects of outbreak responses with monovalent vaccine: a retrospective analysis of surveillance data for 51 countries in Africa},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00453-9},
volume = {22},
year = {2022}
}
RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)
TY - JOUR
AB - BACKGROUND: Expanding outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2) across Africa after the global withdrawal of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in 2016 are delaying global polio eradication. We aimed to assess the effect of outbreak response campaigns with monovalent type 2 OPV (mOPV2) and the addition of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) to routine immunisation. METHODS: We used vaccination history data from children under 5 years old with non-polio acute flaccid paralysis from a routine surveillance database (the Polio Information System) and setting-specific OPV immunogenicity data from the literature to estimate OPV-induced and IPV-induced population immunity against type 2 poliomyelitis between Jan 1, 2015, and June 30, 2020, for 51 countries in Africa. We investigated risk factors for reported cVDPV2 poliomyelitis including population immunity, outbreak response activities, and correlates of poliovirus transmission using logistic regression. We used the model to estimate cVDPV2 risk for each 6-month period between Jan 1, 2016, and June 30, 2020, with different numbers of mOPV2 campaigns and compared the timing and location of actual mOPV2 campaigns and the number of mOPV2 campaigns required to reduce cVDPV2 risk to low levels. FINDINGS: Type 2 OPV immunity among children under 5 years declined from a median of 87% (IQR 81-93) in January-June, 2016 to 14% (9-37) in January-June, 2020. Type 2 immunity from IPV among children under 5 years increased from 3% (<1-6%) in January-June, 2016 to 35% (24-47) in January-June, 2020. The probability of cVDPV2 poliomyelitis among children under 5 years was negatively correlated with OPV-induced and IPV-induced immunity and mOPV2 campaigns (adjusted odds ratio: OPV 0·68 [95% CrI 0·60-0·76], IPV 0·82 [0·68-0·99] per 10% absolute increase in estimated population immunity, mOPV2 0·30 [0·20-0·44] per campaign). Vaccination campaig
AU - Cooper,LV
AU - Bandyopadhyay,AS
AU - Gumede,N
AU - Mach,O
AU - Mkanda,P
AU - Ndoutabé,M
AU - Okiror,SO
AU - Ramirez-Gonzalez,A
AU - Touray,K
AU - Wanyoike,S
AU - Grassly,NC
AU - Blake,IM
DO - 10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00453-9
EP - 294
PY - 2022///
SN - 1473-3099
SP - 284
TI - Risk factors for the spread of vaccine-derived type 2 polioviruses after global withdrawal of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine and the effects of outbreak responses with monovalent vaccine: a retrospective analysis of surveillance data for 51 countries in Africa
T2 - Lancet Infectious Diseases
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00453-9
UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1473309921004539?via%3Dihub
VL - 22
ER -