BibTex format
@article{Hartner:2024:10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00603-4,
author = {Hartner, A-M and Li, X and Echeverria-Londono, S and Roth, J and Abbas, K and Auzenbergs, M and de, Villiers MJ and Ferrari, MJ and Fraser, K and Fu, H and Hallett, T and Hinsley, W and Jit, M and Karachaliou, A and Moore, SM and Nayagam, S and Papadopoulos, T and Perkins, TA and Portnoy, A and Minh, QT and Vynnycky, E and Winter, AK and Burrows, H and Chen, C and Clapham, HE and Deshpande, A and Hauryski, S and Huber, J and Jean, K and Kim, C and Kim, J-H and Koh, J and Lopman, BA and Pitzer, VE and Tam, Y and Lambach, P and Sim, SY and Woodruff, K and Ferguson, NM and Trotter, CL and Gaythorpe, KAM},
doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00603-4},
journal = {The Lancet Global Health},
pages = {e563--e571},
title = {Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020-30: a modelling study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00603-4},
volume = {12},
year = {2024}
}
RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)
TY - JOUR
AB - BACKGROUND: There have been declines in global immunisation coverage due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery has begun but is geographically variable. This disruption has led to under-immunised cohorts and interrupted progress in reducing vaccine-preventable disease burden. There have, so far, been few studies of the effects of coverage disruption on vaccine effects. We aimed to quantify the effects of vaccine-coverage disruption on routine and campaign immunisation services, identify cohorts and regions that could particularly benefit from catch-up activities, and establish if losses in effect could be recovered. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used modelling groups from the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from 112 low-income and middle-income countries to estimate vaccine effect for 14 pathogens. One set of modelling estimates used vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2021 for a subset of vaccine-preventable, outbreak-prone or priority diseases (ie, measles, rubella, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus [HPV], meningitis A, and yellow fever) to examine mitigation measures, hereafter referred to as recovery runs. The second set of estimates were conducted with vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2020, used to calculate effect ratios (ie, the burden averted per dose) for all 14 included vaccines and diseases, hereafter referred to as full runs. Both runs were modelled from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2100. Countries were included if they were in the Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance portfolio; had notable burden; or had notable strategic vaccination activities. These countries represented the majority of global vaccine-preventable disease burden. Vaccine coverage was informed by historical estimates from WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage and the immunisation repository of WHO for data up to and including 2021. From 2022 onwards, we estimated coverage on the basis of guidance about campaign frequency, non-linear assumptions about the recovery of routine
AU - Hartner,A-M
AU - Li,X
AU - Echeverria-Londono,S
AU - Roth,J
AU - Abbas,K
AU - Auzenbergs,M
AU - de,Villiers MJ
AU - Ferrari,MJ
AU - Fraser,K
AU - Fu,H
AU - Hallett,T
AU - Hinsley,W
AU - Jit,M
AU - Karachaliou,A
AU - Moore,SM
AU - Nayagam,S
AU - Papadopoulos,T
AU - Perkins,TA
AU - Portnoy,A
AU - Minh,QT
AU - Vynnycky,E
AU - Winter,AK
AU - Burrows,H
AU - Chen,C
AU - Clapham,HE
AU - Deshpande,A
AU - Hauryski,S
AU - Huber,J
AU - Jean,K
AU - Kim,C
AU - Kim,J-H
AU - Koh,J
AU - Lopman,BA
AU - Pitzer,VE
AU - Tam,Y
AU - Lambach,P
AU - Sim,SY
AU - Woodruff,K
AU - Ferguson,NM
AU - Trotter,CL
AU - Gaythorpe,KAM
DO - 10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00603-4
EP - 571
PY - 2024///
SN - 2214-109X
SP - 563
TI - Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020-30: a modelling study
T2 - The Lancet Global Health
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00603-4
UR - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38485425
UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214109X23006034?via%3Dihub
VL - 12
ER -