In this section
@article{Carter:2024:10.1016/S2352-3018(24)00212-1,
author = {Carter, A and et, al},
doi = {10.1016/S2352-3018(24)00212-1},
journal = {The Lancet HIV},
pages = {e807--e822},
title = {Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990–2021, and forecasts to 2050, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2352-3018(24)00212-1},
volume = {11},
year = {2024}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - BackgroundAs set out in Sustainable Development Goal 3.3, the target date for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat is 2030. Therefore, there is a crucial need to evaluate current epidemiological trends and monitor global progress towards HIV incidence and mortality reduction goals. In this analysis, we assess the current burden of HIV in 204 countries and territories and forecast HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality up to 2050 to allow countries to plan for a sustained response with an increasing number of people living with HIV globally.MethodsWe used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 analytical framework to compute age-sex-specific HIV mortality, incidence, and prevalence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990–2021). We aimed to analyse all available data sources, including data on the provision of HIV programmes reported to UNAIDS, published literature on mortality among people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified by a systematic review, household surveys, sentinel surveillance antenatal care clinic data, vital registration data, and country-level case report data. We calibrated a mechanistic simulation of HIV infection and natural history to available data to estimate HIV burden from 1990 to 2021 and generated forecasts to 2050 through projection of all simulation inputs into the future. Historical outcomes (1990–2021) were simulated at the 1000-draw level to support propagation of uncertainty and reporting of uncertainty intervals (UIs). Our approach to forecasting utilised the transmission rate as the basis for projection, along with new rate-of-change projections of ART coverage. Additionally, we introduced two new metrics to our reporting: prevalence of unsuppressed viraemia (PUV), which represents the proportion of the population without a suppressed level of HIV (viral load <1000 copies per mL), and period lifetime probability of HIV acquisition, which quantifies the
AU - Carter,A
AU - et,al
DO - 10.1016/S2352-3018(24)00212-1
EP - 822
PY - 2024///
SN - 2352-3018
SP - 807
TI - Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990–2021, and forecasts to 2050, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
T2 - The Lancet HIV
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2352-3018(24)00212-1
UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352301824002121?via%3Dihub
VL - 11
ER -
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