BibTex format
@article{Walters:2025:10.1016/s2352-3018(25)00132-8,
author = {Walters, MK and Bulterys, MA and Barry, M and Hicks, S and Richey, A and Sabin, M and Louden, D and Mahy, M and Stover, J and Glaubius, R and Kyu, HH and Boily, M-C and Mofenson, L and Powis, K and Imai-Eaton, JW},
doi = {10.1016/s2352-3018(25)00132-8},
journal = {The Lancet HIV},
pages = {e638--e648},
title = {Probability of vertical HIV transmission: a systematic review and meta-regression},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s2352-3018(25)00132-8},
volume = {12},
year = {2025}
}
RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)
TY - JOUR
AB - BackgroundEliminating HIV vertical transmission is a global priority and monitored by estimating paediatric HIV infections with the UNAIDS-supported Spectrum AIDS Impact Module (Spectrum-AIM). Recent innovations in antiretroviral therapy (ART) service-delivery models and first-line regimens aimed to reduce vertical transmission probabilities. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate vertical transmission probabilities by maternal immunological and treatment status.MethodsIn this systematic review and meta-regression, we combined an updated systematic review with previous data in meta-regression models to estimate vertical transmission probabilities and determinants. We searched PubMed, Embase, the Global Health Database, WHO Global Index Medicus, CINAHL Complete, and Cochrane CENTRAL for peer-reviewed English-language studies from all regions published between Jan 1, 2018 and Feb 8, 2024, with search term domains mentioning “HIV”, “transmission”, “perinatal”, and “breastfeeding periods”, and “infants born to women living with HIV” or related terms from randomised trials, cohort studies, or observational studies. Four meta-regression models estimated vertical transmission probabilities. We assessed model sensitivity and compared estimates to Spectrum-AIM's previous results. Finally, we fit a meta-regression model to assess the association of ART class and initiation timing on viral load suppression (VLS) at delivery.FindingsOf 12588 potential studies, we identified 24 new studies, which along with the 86 from previous reviews yielded 110 total studies included in meta-regression analysis. For women not receiving ART, higher CD4 count was associated with lower odds of perinatal vertical transmission (odds ratio [OR] 0·80, 95% CI 0·75–0·84, per 100 cells per μL increase). For pregnant women on ART, each additional week on ART before delivery reduced odds of vertic
AU - Walters,MK
AU - Bulterys,MA
AU - Barry,M
AU - Hicks,S
AU - Richey,A
AU - Sabin,M
AU - Louden,D
AU - Mahy,M
AU - Stover,J
AU - Glaubius,R
AU - Kyu,HH
AU - Boily,M-C
AU - Mofenson,L
AU - Powis,K
AU - Imai-Eaton,JW
DO - 10.1016/s2352-3018(25)00132-8
EP - 648
PY - 2025///
SN - 2352-3018
SP - 638
TI - Probability of vertical HIV transmission: a systematic review and meta-regression
T2 - The Lancet HIV
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s2352-3018(25)00132-8
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/s2352-3018(25)00132-8
VL - 12
ER -