In this section
@article{Morel:2026:10.1038/s43247-025-03153-9,
author = {Morel, G and Pham, A and Morgenstern, C and Hicks, J and Rawson, T and Fan, V and Edmunds, J and Forchini, G and Hauck, K},
doi = {10.1038/s43247-025-03153-9},
journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
title = {An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 could impact the dairy cattle sector and the broader economy in the United States},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03153-9},
year = {2026}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - The outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in U.S. dairy cattle poses substantial risks to public health, economic sustainability of farming, and global food systems. Using a Computable General Equilibrium model, we simulate its short- to medium-term impacts on Gross Domestic Product and other macro-economic outcomes for the US and its main trading partners. We simulate impacts under the current situation and realistic and reasonable worst-case scenarios. We estimate domestic economic losses ranging between 0.06% and 0.9% of US GDP, with losses to the dairy sector ranging between 3.4% and 20.6%. Trading partners increase dairy production to compensate for the loss. Current government subsidies are about 1.2% (95% HDI: 1% to 1.4%) of output losses, and likely insufficient to incentivise farmers to step up surveillance and biosecurity for mitigating the possible emergence of H5N1 strains with pandemic potential into human populations.
AU - Morel,G
AU - Pham,A
AU - Morgenstern,C
AU - Hicks,J
AU - Rawson,T
AU - Fan,V
AU - Edmunds,J
AU - Forchini,G
AU - Hauck,K
DO - 10.1038/s43247-025-03153-9
PY - 2026///
SN - 2662-4435
TI - An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 could impact the dairy cattle sector and the broader economy in the United States
T2 - Communications Earth & Environment
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03153-9
ER -
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