In this section
@article{Yan:2026:10.1016/j.epidem.2026.100899,
author = {Yan, X and Grassly, NC and Pons-Salort, M},
doi = {10.1016/j.epidem.2026.100899},
journal = {Epidemics},
title = {Impact of COVID-19 on the transmission dynamics of HFMD associated enterovirus serotypes in Japan: A modelling study of surveillance data.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2026.100899},
volume = {54},
year = {2026}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - A notable decline in incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) was observed globally since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating a change in the transmission dynamics of enteroviruses (EVs) causing HFMD. This study estimates the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the transmission of EVs in Japan. Japan has a well-established sentinel surveillance system for enteroviruses and HFMD. A susceptible-infected-recovered stochastic transmission model was fitted to the time-series of weekly reported number of HFMD enterovirus A71 (EV-A71), coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16), and CVA6 cases from January 2005 to December 2024, to estimate the impact of government containment interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Compared to pre-pandemic levels, the transmission rate decreased by 7.86% (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 6.31%, 10.3%) for EV-A71, 12.0% (10.3%, 14.1%) for CVA16, and 20.1% (16.3%, 24.0%) for CVA6 on average from January 2020 to December 2022. The reduction in transmission rate during this period correlated with the COVID-19 Stringency Index, such that 49.3%, 19.9% and 25.5% of the reduction for each serotype respectively was explained by the index, with the biggest reductions occurring during "State of Emergency" periods. Enterovirus serotypes with higher transmissibility (R0) and therefore, a younger mean age at infection, were estimated to experience a bigger reduction in transmission that was more strongly associated with COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions captured by the Stringency Index. This has implications for the impact of NPIs on other viral pathogens.
AU - Yan,X
AU - Grassly,NC
AU - Pons-Salort,M
DO - 10.1016/j.epidem.2026.100899
PY - 2026///
TI - Impact of COVID-19 on the transmission dynamics of HFMD associated enterovirus serotypes in Japan: A modelling study of surveillance data.
T2 - Epidemics
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2026.100899
UR - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/41734482
VL - 54
ER -
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