BibTex format
@article{Imrie:2026:10.1038/s41467-026-69988-8,
author = {Imrie, RM and Bissett, LA and Raveendran, S and Manali, M and Amat, JAR and Mojsiejczuk, L and Logan, N and Park, A and Baguelin, M and Viana, M and Willett, BJ and Murcia, PR},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-69988-8},
journal = {Nat Commun},
title = {Post-pandemic changes in population immunity have reduced the likelihood of emergence of zoonotic coronaviruses.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-69988-8},
volume = {17},
year = {2026}
}
RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)
TY - JOUR
AB - Infections by endemic viruses, and the vaccines used to control them, often provide cross-protection against related viruses, potentially altering the transmission dynamics and likelihood of emergence of new zoonotic viruses with pandemic potential. Here, we investigate how population immunity after the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the likelihood of emergence of a novel sarbecovirus, termed SARS-CoV-X. To this end, we combined empirical cross-neutralisation data with mathematical modelling to identify key immunological and epidemiological factors shaping sarbecovirus emergence. We show that sera from individuals with different COVID-19 immunological histories contained cross-neutralising antibodies against the spike (S) protein of multiple zoonotic sarbecoviruses. Simulations parameterised by these data predict that the likelihood of emergence of a novel sarbecovirus has been reduced significantly by population cross-immunity, with outcomes determined by the extent of cross-protection and R0 of the novel virus. Preventative vaccination against SARS-CoV-X using available COVID-19 vaccines can help resist emergence even in the presence of co-circulating SARS-CoV-2. However, a theoretical vaccine with high specificity to SARS-CoV-2 can increase emergence probability by suppressing SARS-CoV-2 prevalence and, by extension, levels of natural cross-protection. Overall, SARS-CoV-2 circulation and vaccination have generated widespread immunity against related sarbecoviruses, creating an immunological barrier to novel sarbecovirus emergence in humans.
AU - Imrie,RM
AU - Bissett,LA
AU - Raveendran,S
AU - Manali,M
AU - Amat,JAR
AU - Mojsiejczuk,L
AU - Logan,N
AU - Park,A
AU - Baguelin,M
AU - Viana,M
AU - Willett,BJ
AU - Murcia,PR
DO - 10.1038/s41467-026-69988-8
PY - 2026///
TI - Post-pandemic changes in population immunity have reduced the likelihood of emergence of zoonotic coronaviruses.
T2 - Nat Commun
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-69988-8
UR - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/41876522
VL - 17
ER -