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Journal articleLiyew EF, Tollera G, Mengistu B, et al., 2025,
Small bowel obstruction due to ascariasis in a child from southern Ethiopia: a case report
, JOURNAL OF MEDICAL CASE REPORTS, Vol: 19 -
Journal articleJonnerby J, Fenn J, Hakki S, et al., 2025,
Inferring transmission risk of respiratory viral infection from the viral load kinetics of SARS-CoV-2, England, 2020 to 2021 and influenza A virus, Hong Kong, 2008 to 2012
, Eurosurveillance, Vol: 30, ISSN: 1560-7917BackgroundInfectiousness of respiratory viral infections is quantified as plaque forming units (PFU), requiring resource-intensive viral culture that is not routinely performed. We hypothesised that RNA viral load (VL) decline time (e-folding time) in people might serve as an alternative marker of infectiousness.AimThis study’s objective was to evaluate the association of RNA VL decline time with RNA and PFU VL area under the curve (AUC) and transmission risk for SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A virus.MethodsIn SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A virus community cohorts, viral RNA was quantified by reverse transcription quantitative PCR in serial upper respiratory tract (URT)-samples collected within households after an initial household-member tested positive for one virus. We evaluated correlations between RNA VL decline time and RNA and PFU-VL AUC. Associations between VL decline time and transmission risk in index-contact pairs were assessed.ResultsIn SARS-CoV-2 cases, we observed positive correlations between RNA VL decline time and RNA and PFU VL AUC with posterior probabilities 1 and 0.96 respectively. In influenza A cases a positive correlation between RNA VL decline time and RNA VL AUC was observed, with posterior probability of 0.87. Index case VL decline times one standard deviation above the cohort-mean showed a relative increase in secondary attack rates of 39% (95% credible interval (CrI): −6.9 to 95%) for SARS-CoV-2 and 25% (95% CrI: −11 to 71%) for influenza A virus.ConclusionWe identify VL decline time as a potential marker of infectiousness and transmission risk for SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A virus. Early ascertainment of VL kinetics as part of surveillance of new viruses or variants could inform public health decision making.
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Journal articleVaraden D, Barratt B, Dallman MJ, et al., 2025,
West London Healthy Home and Environment (WellHome) Study: Protocol for a Community-Based Study Investigating Exposures Across the Indoor-Outdoor Air Pollution Continuum in Urban Communities.
, Int J Environ Res Public Health, Vol: 22The relationship between indoor air quality and public health remains under-researched. WellHome is a transdisciplinary community-based study that will engage with residents to co-design feasible and acceptable research to quantify air pollution exposure in 100 homes in West London and examine its potential to exacerbate asthma symptoms in children. Sampling strategies such as using air quality monitors and passive samplers placed in kitchens, children's bedrooms, and living rooms, will be developed in collaboration with local ambassadors and participating households to measure multiple physical, chemical, microplastic, and biological contaminants. This will provide a comprehensive understanding of indoor air quality across the city's socio-economic gradient. Other data collected will include housing types and tenure, ventilation practices, occupant behaviours, time-activity, and airway symptoms. Epidemiological analysis will examine air pollution exposure impacts on children's respiratory health. The particulate mixture's relative hazard will be evaluated in toxicity studies based on source profiles and activity patterns of participants, focusing on asthma exacerbation related pathways. The study's findings will be communicated to participants through co-designed reports and inform evidence-based recommendations for reducing indoor air pollution in London and urban areas worldwide. By raising awareness and providing actionable insights, WellHome seeks to contribute to global efforts to improve the health and well-being of vulnerable communities.
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Journal articleOkumu F, Moore SJ, Selvaraj P, et al., 2025,
Elevating larval source management as a key strategy for controlling malaria and other vector-borne diseases in Africa
, PARASITES & VECTORS, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1756-3305- Cite
- Citations: 5
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Journal articleGeng L, Whittles LK, Dickens BL, et al., 2025,
Potential public health impacts of gonorrhea vaccination programmes under declining incidences: a modeling study
, PLoS Medicine, Vol: 22, ISSN: 1549-1277Background:Gonorrhea is the second most common sexually transmitted disease notified in Singapore in 2023. Evidence suggests that the 4CMenB vaccine designed to protect against Neisseria meningitidis infection may offer partial cross-protection against gonorrhea. This generated interest in using 4CMenB for the purpose of staving gonorrhea transmission. We explored the efficacy of potential gonorrhea vaccination strategies in the context of historically declining gonorrhea incidence.Methods and findings:We employed an integrated transmission-dynamic model, calibrated using Bayesian methods to local surveillance data to understand the potential public health impact of 4CMenB in reducing gonorrhea acquisition and transmission in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Singapore. We explored the efficacy of implementing six vaccination programmes: (1) offering vaccination to all male adolescents in schools (vaccination before entry [VbE]), (2) offering vaccination to individuals attending sexual health clinics for testing (vaccination on attendance [VoA]), (3) offering vaccination to individuals attending sexual health clinics and who were diagnosed with gonorrhea (vaccination on diagnosis [VoD]), or (4) vaccination according to risk (VaR), by offering vaccination to patients who were diagnosed with gonorrhea plus individuals who tested negative, but report having more than five sexual partners per year. We further examined how altering (5) VoA and (6) VoD strategies changed if the strategies only targeted high risk groups (VoA(H),VoD(H)). We assessed efficacy by examining vaccination impact relative to no vaccination and when behavioral parameters were held constant. We further ascertained the effects of varying vaccine uptake (10%, 33%, 100%), vaccine efficacy (22%, 31%, 47%), and duration of protection (1.5, 4, 7.5 years) on the effectiveness of each vaccination strategy.For a hypothetical 10-year vaccination programme, VbE had 14.18% of MSM gonorrhea cases averted over t
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Journal articleBercusson A, Williams TJ, Simmonds NJ, et al., 2025,
Increased NFAT and NFκB signalling contribute to the hyperinflammatory phenotype in response to Aspergillus fumigatus in a mouse model of cystic fibrosis
, PLoS Pathogens, Vol: 21, ISSN: 1553-7366Aspergillus fumigatus (Af) is a major mould pathogen found ubiquitously in the air. It commonly infects the airways of people with cystic fibrosis (CF) leading to Aspergillus bronchitis or allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis. Resident alveolar macrophages and recruited neutrophils are important first lines of defence for clearance of Af in the lung. However, their contribution to the inflammatory phenotype in CF during Af infection is not well understood. Here, utilising CFTR deficient mice we describe a hyperinflammatory phenotype in both acute and allergic murine models of pulmonary aspergillosis. We show that during aspergillosis, CFTR deficiency leads to increased alveolar macrophage death and persistent inflammation of the airways in CF, accompanied by impaired fungal control. Utilising CFTR deficient murine cells and primary human CF cells we show that at a cellular level there is increased activation of NFκB and NFAT in response to Af which, as in in vivo models, is associated with increased cell death and reduced fungal control. Taken together, these studies indicate that CFTR deficiency promotes increased activation of inflammatory pathways, the induction of macrophage cell death and reduced fungal control contributing to the hyper-inflammatory of pulmonary aspergillosis phenotypes in CF.
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Journal articleHozé N, Pons-Salort M, Metcalf CJE, et al., 2025,
RSero: a user-friendly R package to reconstruct pathogen circulation history from seroprevalence studies
, PLoS Computational Biology, Vol: 21, ISSN: 1553-734XPopulation-based serological surveys are a key tool in epidemiology to characterize the level of population immunity and reconstruct the past circulation of pathogens. A variety of serocatalytic models have been developed to estimate the force of infection (FOI) (i.e., the rate at which susceptible individuals become infected) from age-stratified seroprevalence data. However, few tool currently exists to easily implement, combine, and compare these models. Here, we introduce an R package, Rsero, that implements a series of serocatalytic models and estimates the FOI from age-stratified seroprevalence data using Bayesian methods. The package also contains a series of features to perform model comparison and visualise model fit. We introduce new serocatalytic models of successive outbreaks and extend existing models of seroreversion to any transmission model. The different features of the package are illustrated with simulated and real-life data. We show we can identify the correct epidemiological scenario and recover model parameters in different epidemiological settings. We also show how the package can support serosurvey study design in a variety of epidemic situations. This package provides a standard framework to epidemiologists and modellers to study the dynamics of past pathogen circulation from cross-sectional serological survey data.
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Thesis dissertationCharles G, 2025,
Neural network based surrogates for scalable Bayesian inference on a complex malaria model
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Journal articleScachetti GC, Forato J, Claro IM, et al., 2025,
Re-emergence of Oropouche virus between 2023 and 2024 in Brazil: an observational epidemiological study
, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol: 25, Pages: 166-175, ISSN: 1473-3099BackgroundOropouche virus is an arthropod-borne virus that has caused outbreaks of Oropouche fever in central and South America since the 1950s. This study investigates virological factors contributing to the re-emergence of Oropouche fever in Brazil between 2023 and 2024.MethodsIn this observational epidemiological study, we combined multiple data sources for Oropouche virus infections in Brazil and conducted in-vitro and in-vivo characterisation. We collected serum samples obtained in Manaus City, Amazonas state, Brazil, from patients with acute febrile illnesses aged 18 years or older who tested negative for malaria and samples from people with previous Oropouche virus infection from Coari municipality, Amazonas state, Brazil. Basic clinical and demographic data were collected from the Brazilian Laboratory Environment Management System. We calculated the incidence of Oropouche fever cases with data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the 2022 Brazilian population census and conducted age–sex analyses. We used reverse transcription quantitative PCR to test for Oropouche virus RNA in samples and subsequently performed sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of viral isolates. We compared the phenotype of the 2023–24 epidemic isolate (AM0088) with the historical prototype strain BeAn19991 through assessment of titre, plaque number, and plaque size. We used a plaque reduction neutralisation test (PRNT50) to assess the susceptibility of the novel isolate and BeAn19991 isolate to antibody neutralisation, both in serum samples from people previously infected with Oropouche virus and in blood collected from mice that were inoculated with either of the strains.Findings8639 (81·8%) of 10 557 laboratory-confirmed Oropouche fever cases from Jan 4, 2015, to Aug 10, 2024, occurred in 2024, which is 58·8 times the annual median of 147 cases (IQR 73–325). Oropouche virus infections were reported in all 27 federal units, with 8182 (77&mid
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Journal articleHuong NHT, Toan ND, Khanh TH, et al., 2025,
A cost of illness analysis of children with encephalitis presenting to a major hospital in Vietnam
, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol: 112, Pages: 422-430, ISSN: 0002-9637Encephalitis is a significant global health problem, especially in children. Knowledge of its economic burden is essential for policymakers in prioritizing the development and implementation of interventions but remains limited. An observational study was prospectively conducted at a major children’s hospital in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, from 2020 to 2022. Data on direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs and productivity costs were collected alongside demographic information, clinical features, diagnosis, severity, and outcomes of study participants. This was used to undertake a cost of illness analysis from a societal perspective. Data were collected from a total of 164 pediatric patients. The median cost of illness was estimated at US$1,859 (interquartile range (IQR), US$1,273–US$3,128). The direct costs were the main cost driver, accounting for 83.9% of the total cost of illness (US$1,560 (IQR: US$975–US$2,460)). The productivity costs accounted for a median of US$275 (IQR, US$154–US$474). The cost of illness was higher in more severe patients, patients with sequelae, patients with morbidities, and ventilated patients. Most of direct medical costs attributed to hospitalization and resulted in out-of-pocket payments from the patient’s family (30.2%, US$316). The results showed that the cost of illness of encephalitis in children is considerable and will be useful for policymakers in prioritizing resources for the development and implementation of intervention strategies to reduce the burden of pediatric encephalitis.
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