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  • Journal article
    Arinaminpathy N, McLean AR, 2009,

    Evolution and emergence of novel human infections

    , PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 276, Pages: 3937-3943, ISSN: 0962-8452
  • Journal article
    Owen Nee Watts H, Nyamukapa C, Beasley M, Wambe M, Jukes M, Mason P, Gregson Set al., 2009,

    Contrasting causal pathways contribute to poorer health and nutrition outcomes in orphans in Zimbabwe.

    , Vulnerable Child Youth Stud, Vol: 4, Pages: 312-323, ISSN: 1745-0128

    Orphaned children have been found to be at greater risk of poor health and malnutrition compared to non-orphans in sub-Saharan African countries. However, levels of disadvantage vary by location and little is known about the causal pathways that lead from orphanhood to poorer health and malnutrition. Aggregate data from recent Demographic and Health Surveys in 22 countries were used to compare overall levels of ill-health and malnutrition by orphan status. Data from the Manicaland Child Cohort Study in Zimbabwe - a closed cohort study with detailed longitudinal information on orphan's experience - were used to describe how patterns of ill-health and malnutrition alter over the child's life-course and to test causal pathways between orphanhood and ill-health and malnutrition, hypothesized in a previously published theoretical frame-work. Modest increases in ill-health and malnutrition were found in orphans in the Demographic and Health Surveys data, with maternal and double orphans being worst affected. Non-significant associations were found between orphanhood and ill-health in the Manicaland Child Cohort Study data, but no associations with malnutrition were found. None the less, smaller increases in body mass index with age were seen among orphans (ologit test for difference: adjusted odds ratio = 0.68; p = 0.07) and maternal orphans (ologit test for difference: adjusted odds ratio = 0.67; p = 0.03) than among non-orphans. Stigma and discrimination contributed to poor diet, malnutrition and ill-health in children whose mothers had died, while heightened poverty was a more important factor for paternal orphans. These results suggest social and psychological support for orphans and their families could be as important as material support in preventing malnutrition and ill-health.
  • Journal article
    Minayev P, Ferguson N, 2009,

    Incorporating demographic stochasticity into multi-strain epidemic models: application to influenza A

    , JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, Vol: 6, Pages: 989-996, ISSN: 1742-5689
  • Journal article
    Pellis L, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, 2009,

    Threshold parameters for a model of epidemic spread among households and workplaces

    , Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol: 6, Pages: 979-987

    The basic reproduction number is one of the most important concepts in modern infectious disease epidemiology. However, for more realistic and more complex models than those assuming homogeneous mixing in the population, other threshold quantities can be defined that are sometimes more useful and easily derived in terms of model parameters. In this paper, we present a model for the spread of a permanently immunizing infection in a population socially structured into households and workplaces/schools, and we propose and discuss a new household-to-household reproduction number for it. We show how overcomes some of the limitations of a previously proposed threshold parameter, and we highlight its relationship with the effort required to control an epidemic when interventions are targeted at randomly selected households.
  • Journal article
    Wilcher R, Cates W, Gregson S, 2009,

    Family planning and HIV: strange bedfellows no longer

    , AIDS, Vol: 23, Pages: S1-S6, ISSN: 0269-9370
  • Journal article
    Chen H, Wang Y, Liu W, Zhang J, Dong B, Fan X, de Jong MD, Farrar J, Riley S, Smith GJD, Guan Yet al., 2009,

    Serologic survey of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, Guangxi Province, China.

    , Emerging Infect Dis, Vol: 15, Pages: 1849-1850
  • Journal article
    White LF, Wallinga J, Finelli L, Reed C, Riley S, Lipsitch M, Pagano Met al., 2009,

    Estimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USA.

    , Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Vol: 3, Pages: 267-276
  • Conference paper
    Griffin JT, Ghani AC, 2009,

    COMPARING AND VALIDATING MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF MALARIA TRANSMISSION USING BAYESIAN METHODS

    , 58th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene, Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 155-155, ISSN: 0002-9637
  • Conference paper
    Hollingsworth D, Ferguson N, Griffin J, Donnelly C, Drakeley C, Riley E, Reyburn H, Ghani Aet al., 2009,

    ESTIMATING THE RATE OF ACQUIRING IMMUNITY TO SEVERE DISEASE DUE TO <i>PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM</i> WITH AGE AND EXPOSURE

    , 58th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene, Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 258-259, ISSN: 0002-9637
  • Conference paper
    Okell LC, Ghani AC, Lyons E, Drakeley Cet al., 2009,

    SUBMICROSCOPIC <i>PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM</i> INFECTION IN ENDEMIC POPULATION SURVEYS: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS

    , 58th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene, Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 297-297, ISSN: 0002-9637

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