Professor Steven Riley presenting mathematical formulae

The development of analytical methodology and in particular of models (both statistical and dynamical) is a primary component to most of the research carried out within the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling.

Much research in this theme focuses on the development and application of models to enhance disease preparedness and response. However, the research also encompasses the development of novel analytical and computational tools to improve public health enabling the full exploitation of new data streams enabled by technological and data revolutions. Examples include the digital capture and linkage of ever larger volumes of health and social data and the routine genetic sequencing of pathogens.

We seek to answer interesting and important questions such as how common diseases are, which groups are most likely to be affected and how transmission might be best controlled. In doing so, we aim to extract as much information as possible out of the (often limited) data available. We use statistical principles and methods

  • to estimate important biological and epidemiological parameters and dynamics;
  • to characterise the uncertainty attached to these results; and
  • to design powerful studies

Academic staff