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Journal articlePang B, Cheng S, Huang Y, et al., 2025,
Fire-Image-DenseNet (FIDN) for predicting wildfire burnt area using remote sensing data
, Computers and Geosciences, Vol: 195, ISSN: 0098-3004Predicting the extent of massive wildfires once ignited is essential to reduce the subsequent socioeconomic losses and environmental damage, but challenging because of the complexity of fire behavior. Existing physics-based models are limited in predicting large or long-duration wildfire events. Here, we develop a deep-learning-based predictive model, Fire-Image-DenseNet (FIDN), that uses spatial features derived from both near real-time and reanalysis data on the environmental and meteorological drivers of wildfire. We trained and tested this model using more than 300 individual wildfires that occurred between 2012 and 2019 in the western US. In contrast to existing models, the performance of FIDN does not degrade with fire size or duration. Furthermore, it predicts final burnt area accurately even in very heterogeneous landscapes in terms of fuel density and flammability. The FIDN model showed higher accuracy, with a mean squared error (MSE) about 82% and 67% lower than those of the predictive models based on cellular automata (CA) and the minimum travel time (MTT) approaches, respectively. Its structural similarity index measure (SSIM) averages 97%, outperforming the CA and FlamMap MTT models by 6% and 2%, respectively. Additionally, FIDN is approximately three orders of magnitude faster than both CA and MTT models. The enhanced computational efficiency and accuracy advancements offer vital insights for strategic planning and resource allocation for firefighting operations.
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Journal articleJiang J, Chen Y, Zhang R, et al., 2025,
New insights on the impact of light, photoperiod and temperature on the reproduction of green algae <i>Ulva prolifera</i> via transcriptomics and physiological analyses
, MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN, Vol: 211, ISSN: 0025-326X -
Journal articlePurvis A, 2025,
Bending the curve of biodiversity loss requires a 'satnav' for nature.
, Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, Vol: 380Georgina Mace proposed bending the curve of biodiversity loss as a fitting ambition for the Convention on Biological Diversity. The new Global Biodiversity Monitoring Framework (GBMF) may increase the chances of meeting the goals and targets in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF), which requires bending the curve. To meet the outcome goals of KMGBF, the GBMF should support adaptive policy responses to the state of biodiversity, which in turn requires a 'satnav' for nature. The twin pillars of such a satnav are (i) models to predict expected future outcomes of today's choices; and (ii) rapid feedback from monitoring to enable course corrections and model improvement. These same elements will also empower organizations to ensure that their actions are truly nature-positive, but they are not yet written into the GBMF. Without a satnav, society will effectively have to try to find its way to the outcome goals by looking in the rear-view mirror that the current headline indicators provide. Drawing contrasts and parallels with climate modelling, I discuss challenges for indicators, models, data and research culture that must be overcome if we are to bend the curve, and suggest ways forward.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.
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Journal articleBridle J, Balmford A, Durant SM, et al., 2025,
How should we bend the curve of biodiversity loss to build a just and sustainable future?
, Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, Vol: 380Current rates of habitat and biodiversity loss, and the threat they pose to ecological and economic productivity, would be considered a global emergency even if they were not occurring during a period of rapid anthropogenic climate change. Diversity at all levels of biological organization, both within and among species, and across genomes and communities, is critical for the resilience of the world's ecosystems in the face of such change. However, it remains an urgent scientific challenge to understand how biodiversity underpins these ecological outputs, how patterns of biodiversity are being affected by current threats, and how and where such biodiversity contributes most directly to human economies, well-being and social justice. In addition, even with such scientific understanding, there is a pressing need for societies to incorporate biodiversity protection into their economies and governance, and to stop subsidizing the loss of humanity's future prosperity for short-term private benefit. We highlight key issues and ways forward in these areas, inspired by the research and career of Dame Georgina Mace FRS, and by our discussions during the Royal Society meeting of June 2023.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.
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Journal articleBridle J, Balmford A, Durant SM, et al., 2025,
Dedication: Professor Dame Georgina Mace DBE FRS (1953-2020).
, Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, Vol: 380 -
Journal articleSavolainen V, Bezeng BS, 2025,
An African perspective to biodiversity conservation in the 21st century
, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, ISSN: 0962-8436Africa boasts high biodiversity while also being home to some of the largest and fastest-growing human populations. Although the current environmental footprint of Africa is low compared to other continents, the population of Africa is estimated at around 1.5 billion inhabitants, representing nearly 18% of the world's total population. Consequently, Africa’s rich biodiversity is under threat, yet only 19% of the landscape and 17% of the seascape are under any form of protection. To effectively address this issue and align with the Convention on Biological Diversity's ambitious ‘30 by 30’ goal, which seeks to protect 30% of the world's land and oceans by 2030, substantial funding and conservation measures are urgently required. In response to this critical challenge, as scientists and conservationists working in Africa, we propose five recommendations for future directions aimed at enhancing biodiversity conservation for the betterment of African society: (i) accelerate data collection, data sharing and analytics for informed policy and decision making; (ii) innovate education and capacity building for future generations; (iii) enhance and expand protected areas, ecological networks, and foundational legal frameworks; (iv) unlock creative funding channels for cutting-edge conservation initiatives; and (v) integrate indigenous and local knowledge into forward-thinking conservation strategies. By implementing these recommendations, we believe Africa can make significant strides towards preserving its unique biodiversity, while fostering a healthier society, and contributing to global conservation efforts.
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Journal articleCai W, Zhu Z, Harrison SP, et al., 2025,
A unifying principle for global greenness patterns and trends
, Nature Communications Earth and Environment, ISSN: 2662-4435 -
Journal articleTolosana I, Willis K, Gribble M, et al., 2025,
A Y chromosome-linked genome editor for efficient population suppression in the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae.
, Nat Commun, Vol: 16Genetic control - the deliberate introduction of genetic traits to control a pest or vector population - offers a powerful tool to augment conventional mosquito control tools that have been successful in reducing malaria burden but that are compromised by a range of operational challenges. Self-sustaining genetic control strategies have shown great potential in laboratory settings, but hesitancy due to their invasive and persistent nature may delay their implementation. Here, instead, we describe a self-limiting strategy, designed to have geographically and temporally restricted effect, based on a Y chromosome-linked genome editor (YLE). The YLE comprises a CRISPR-Cas9 construct that is always inherited by males yet generates an autosomal dominant mutation that is transmitted to over 90% of the offspring and results in female-specific sterility. To our knowledge, our system represents a pioneering approach in the engineering of the Y chromosome to generate a genetic control strain for mosquitoes. Mathematical modelling shows that this YLE technology is up to seven times more efficient for population suppression than optimal versions of other self-limiting strategies, such as the widely used Sterile Insect Technique or the Release of Insects carrying a Dominant Lethal gene.
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Journal articleStocker B, Dong N, Perkowski EA, et al., 2025,
Empirical evidence and theoretical understanding ofecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycle interactions
, New Phytologist, Vol: 245, Pages: 49-68, ISSN: 0028-646XInteractions between carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles in terrestrial ecosystems are simulated in advanced vegetation models, yet methodologies vary widely, leading to divergent simulations of past land C balance trends. This underscores the need to reassess our understanding of ecosystem processes, given recent theoretical advancements and empirical data. We review current knowledge, emphasising evidence from experiments and trait data compilations for vegetation responses to CO2 and N input, alongside theoretical and ecological principles for modelling. N fertilisation increases leaf N content but inconsistently enhances leaf-level photosynthetic capacity. Whole-plant responses include increased leaf area and biomass, with reduced root allocation and increased aboveground biomass. Elevated atmospheric CO2 also boosts leaf area and biomass but intensifies belowground allocation, depleting soil N and likely reducing N losses. Global leaf traits data confirm these findings, indicating that soil N availability influences leaf N content more than photosynthetic capacity. A demonstration model based on the functional balance hypothesis accurately predicts responses to N and CO2 fertilisation on tissue allocation, growth and biomass, offering a path to reduce uncertainty in global C cycle projections.
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Journal articleFlintham E, Savolainen V, Otto S, et al., 2024,
The maintenance of genetic polymorphism underlyingsexually antagonistic traits
, Evolution Letters, ISSN: 2056-3744Selection often favours different trait values in males and females, leading to genetic conflicts between the sexes when traits have a shared genetic basis. Such sexual antagonism has beenproposed to maintain genetic polymorphism. However, this notion is based on insights from population genetic models of single loci with fixed fitness effects. It is thus unclear how readily polymorphism emerges from sex-specific selection acting on continuous traits, where fitness effects arisefrom the genotype-phenotype map and the fitness landscape. Here we model the evolution of a continuous trait that has a shared genetic basis but different optima in males and females, considering a wide variety of genetic architectures and fitness landscapes. For autosomal loci, the long-termmaintenance of polymorphism requires strong conflict between males and females that generatesuncharacteristic sex-specific fitness patterns. Instead, more plausible sex-specific fitness landscapestypically generate stabilising selection leading to an evolutionarily stable state that consists of a singlehomozygous genotype. Except for sites tightly linked to the sex determining region, our results indicate that genetic variation due to sexual antagonism should arise only rarely and often be transient,making these signatures challenging to detect in genomic data.
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Journal articleSethi SS, Bick A, Chen M-Y, et al., 2024,
Reply to Araújo: Good science requires focus.
, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, Vol: 121 -
Journal articleParry C, Turnbull C, Gill R, 2024,
Tracking pollen tube and ovule development in vivo reveals rapid responses to pollination in Brassica napus
, AOB Plants, ISSN: 2041-2851Pollination and subsequent fertilisation in most angiosperms are precursors of seed and fruit development. Thus, understanding the developmental processes can improve management of plant reproductive success and food security. Indeed, the window between ovule fertilisation and seed development is crucial for the accumulation of metabolites which determines ultimate seed quality and yield. Establishing detailed temporal maps of development to describe pollination to early seed development is therefore extremely valuable to provide context for molecular studies, plant breeding, and to refine crop management strategies for optimal seed quality.• MethodsHere, we characterise aspects of post-pollination responses in the globally important crop plant Brassica napus (oilseed rape, canola) with a high-resolution time series of microscope images of the floral organs during the first 48 hours post pollination. • Key results We demonstrate the rapid response to pollination in B. napus (c.v. Westar), with pollen tubes germinating and traversing the style within just four hours. We also describe markers of early seed formation in response to fertilisation in the synchronous development of ovule area and stigma length. • ConclusionsOur results provide a series of temporal benchmarks for post-pollination floral morphology in B. napus, representing valuable reference points for studying and tracking pollination responses and early seed development.
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Journal articleWoodward G, 2024,
Warming alters plankton body-size distributions in a large field experiment
, Communications Biology, ISSN: 2399-3642The threat of climate change has renewed interest in the responses of communities and ecosystems to warming, with changes insize spectra expected to signify fundamental shifts in the structure and dynamics of these multispecies systems. Whilesubstantial empirical evidence has accumulated in recent years on such changes, we still lack general insights due to a limitedcoverage of warming scenarios that span spatial and temporal scales of relevance to natural systems. We addressed this gap byconducting an extensive freshwater mesocosm experiment across 36 large field mesocosms exposed to intergenerationalwarming treatments of up to +8 °C above ambient levels. We found a nonlinear decrease in the overall mean body size ofzooplankton with warming, with a 57% reduction at +8 °C. This pattern was broadly consistent over two tested seasons andmajor taxonomic groups. We also detected some breakpoints in the community-level size-temperature relationship, indicatingthat the system’s response shifts noticeably above a certain level of warming. These results underscore the need to captureintergenerational responses to large gradients in warming at appropriate scales in time and space in order to better understandthe effects of warming on natural communities and ecosystems.
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Journal articleStemkovski M, Fife A, Stuart R, et al., 2024,
Bee Phenological Distributions Predicted by Inferring Vital Rates
, AMERICAN NATURALIST, Vol: 204, Pages: E115-E127, ISSN: 0003-0147 -
Journal articleParry C, Turnbull C, Barter L, et al., 2024,
Shedding light on pollination deficits: cueing into plant spectral reflectance signatures to monitor pollination delivery across landscapes
, Journal of Applied Ecology, Vol: 61, Pages: 2873-2883, ISSN: 0021-8901Pollination underlies plant yield, health and reproductive success in agricultural and natural systems worldwide. It is therefore concerning that declining animal pollinator populations compounded by growing demands for food are leading to rising pollination deficits, with globally significant economic and environmental implications.Despite this urgent issue, accurate and scalable tools to quantify and track pollination across useful spatiotemporal scales are lacking. Here, we propose to shed new light on pollination deficits, looking to remote sensing platforms as a transformative mapping and monitoring tool and a solution for pollinator conservation and crop management.Providing a synthesis of our current understanding of pollination-triggered floral senescence and underlying ultrastructural and metabolic changes, we propose how spectral reflectance technologies could be applied to accurately detect pollination events in real-time and at the landscape scale.Synthesis and applications: We highlight where research efforts can be targeted to produce scalable methods for identifying field-relevant bioindicators of pollination. We provide guidance on how spectral imaging accompanied by machine learning and coupled with autonomous operation technologies will enable applications to detect pollination delivery across complex landscapes. Ultimately, such an ecological application will transform our quantitative understanding of pollination services and, by directly linking plant yields and health, will reveal pollination deficits at high resolution to help mitigate risks to food security and ecosystem functioning.
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Journal articleEwers RM, Cook J, Daniel OZ, et al., 2024,
New insights to be gained from a Virtual Ecosystem
, ECOLOGICAL MODELLING, Vol: 498, ISSN: 0304-3800 -
Journal articleLiu J, Ryu Y, Luo X, et al., 2024,
Evidence for widespread thermal acclimation of canopy photosynthesis
, Nature Plants, Vol: 10, Pages: 1919-1927, ISSN: 2055-026XPlants acclimate to temperature by adjusting their photosynthetic capacity over weeks to months. However, most evidence for photosynthetic acclimation derives from leaf-scale experiments. Here, we address the scarcity of evidence for canopy-scale photosynthetic acclimation by examining the correlation between maximum photosynthetic rates (Amax,2000) and growth temperature ((T_air ) ̅) across a range of concurrent temperatures and canopy foliage quantity, using data from over 200 eddy covariance sites. We detect widespread thermal acclimation of canopy-scale photosynthesis, demonstrated by enhanced Amax,2000 under higher (T_air ) ̅, across flux sites with adequate water availability. A 14-day period is identified as the most relevant time scale for acclimation across all sites, with a range of 12–25 days for different plant functional types. The mean apparent thermal acclimation rate across all ecosystems is 0.41 (-0.38–1.04 for 5th–95th percentile range) µmol m-2 s-1 C-1, with croplands showing the largest and grasslands the lowest acclimation rates. Incorporating an optimality-based prediction of leaf photosynthetic capacities into a biochemical photosynthesis model is shown to improve the representation of thermal acclimation. Our results underscore the critical need for enhanced understanding and modelling of canopy-scale photosynthetic capacity to accurately predict plant responses to warmer growing seasons.
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Journal articleSayol F, Wayman JP, Dufour P, et al., 2024,
AVOTREX: A Global Dataset of Extinct Birds and Their Traits
, GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY, Vol: 33, ISSN: 1466-822X -
Journal articleClegg T, Pawar S, 2024,
Variation in thermal physiology can drive the temperature-dependence of microbial community richness
, eLife, ISSN: 2050-084XPredicting how species diversity changes along environmental gradients is an enduring problem in ecology. In microbes current theories tend to invoke energy availability and enzyme kinetics as the main drivers of temperature-richness relationships. Here we derive a general empirically-grounded theory that can explain this phenomenon by linking microbial species richness in competitive communities to variation in the temperature-dependence of their interaction and growth rates. Specifically, the shape of the microbial community temperature-richness relationship depends on how rapidly the strength of effective competition between species pairs changes with temperature relative to the variance of their growth rates. Furthermore, it predicts that a thermal specialist-generalist tradeoff in growth rates alters coexistence by shifting this balance, causing richness to peak at relatively higher temperatures. Finally, we show that the observed patterns of variation in thermal performance curves of metabolic traits across extant bacterial taxa is indeed sufficient to generate the variety of community-level temperature-richness responses observed in the real world. Our results provide a new and general mechanism that can help explain temperature-diversity gradients in microbial communities, and provide a quantitative framework for interlinking variation in the thermal physiology of microbial species to their community-level diversity.
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Journal articleChik HYJ, Sibma A, Mannarelli M-E, et al., 2024,
Heritability and age-dependent changes in genetic variation of telomere length in a wild house sparrow population
, EVOLUTION LETTERS -
Journal articleMaurenza D, Crouzeilles R, Prevedello JA, et al., 2024,
Effects of deforestation on multitaxa community similarity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest
, CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, ISSN: 0888-8892 -
Journal articleZhang-Zheng H, Deng X, Aguirre-Gutierrez J, et al., 2024,
Why models underestimate West African tropical forest primary productivity
, Nature Communications, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2041-1723Tropical forests dominate terrestrial photosynthesis, yet there are major contradictions in our understanding due to a lack of field studies, especially outside the tropical Americas. A recent field study indicated that West African forests have among the highest forests gross primary productivity (GPP) yet observed, contradicting models that rank them lower than Amazonian forests. Here, we show possible reasons for this data-model mismatch. We found that biometric GPP measurements are on average 56.3% higher than multiple global GPP products at the study sites. The underestimation of GPP largely disappears when a standard photosynthesis model is informed by local field-measured values of (a) fractional absorbed photosynthetic radiation (fAPAR), and (b) photosynthetic traits. Remote sensing products systematically underestimate fAPAR (33.9% on average at study sites) due to cloud contamination issues. The study highlights the potential widespread underestimation of tropical forests GPP and carbon cycling and hints at the ways forward for model and input data improvement.
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Journal articleBarber RA, Yang J, Yang C, et al., 2024,
Climate and ecology predict latitudinal trends in sexual selection inferred from avian mating systems
, PLOS BIOLOGY, Vol: 22, ISSN: 1544-9173 -
Journal articlePrentice IC, Balzarolo M, Bloomfield KJ, et al., 2024,
Principles for satellite monitoring of vegetation carbon uptake
, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2662-138XRemote sensing-based numerical models harness satellite-borne measurements of light absorption by vegetation to estimate global patterns and trends in gross primary production (GPP)—the basis of the terrestrial carbon cycle. In this Perspective, we discuss the challenges in estimating GPP using these models and explore ways to improve their reliability. Current models vary substantially in their structure and produce differing results, especially as regards temporal trends in GPP. Many models invoke the light use efficiency (LUE) principle, which links light absorption to photosynthesis and plant biomass production, to estimate GPP. But these models vary in their assumptions about the controls of LUE and typically depend on many, poorly known parameters. Eco-evolutionary optimality principles can greatly reduce parameter requirements, and can improve the accuracy and consistency of GPP estimates and interpretations of their relationships with environmental drivers. Integrating data across different satellites and sensors, and utilising auxiliary optical band retrievals, could enhance spatiotemporal resolution and improve models' ability to detect aspects of vegetation physiology, including drought stress. Extending and harmonizing the eddy-covariance flux tower network will support systematic evaluation of GPP models. Enhancing the reliability of GPP and biomass production estimates will better characterise temporal variation and improve understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle’s response to environmental change.
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Journal articleQi M, Suz LM, Bidartondo MI, et al., 2024,
Fruitbody and root data infer different environmental niches for ectomycorrhizal fungi
, JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Vol: 51, Pages: 2221-2236, ISSN: 0305-0270 -
Journal articleEwers RM, 2024,
An audacious approach to conservation
, TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION, Vol: 39, Pages: 995-1003, ISSN: 0169-5347 -
Journal articleWilliams J, Newbold T, Millard J, et al., 2024,
Important Crop Pollinators Respond Less Negatively to Anthropogenic Land Use Than Other Animals
, Ecology and Evolution, ISSN: 2045-7758Animal-mediated pollination is a key ecosystem service required to some extent by almost three-quarters of the leading human food crops in global food production. Anthropogenic pressures such as habitat loss and land-use intensification are causing shifts in ecological community composition, potentially resulting in declines in pollination services and impacting crop production. Previous research has often overlooked interspecific differences in pollination contribution, yet such differences mean that biodiversity declines will not necessarily negatively impact pollination. Here, we use a novel species-level ecosystem service contribution matrix along with mixed-effects models to explore how groups of terrestrial species who contribute differently to crop pollination respond globally to land-use type, land-use intensity, and availability of natural habitats in the surrounding landscape. We find that the species whose contribution to crop pollination is higher generally respond less negatively (and in some cases positively) to human disturbance of land, compared to species that contribute less or not at all to pollination. This result may be due to these high-contribution species being less sensitive to anthropogenic land conversions, which has led humans to being more reliant on them for crop pollination. However, it also suggests that there is potential for crop pollination to be resilient in the face of anthropogenic land conversions. With such a high proportion of food crops requiring animal-mediated pollination to some extent, understanding how anthropogenic landscapes impact ecological communities and the consequences for pollination is critical for ensuring food security.
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Journal articleSchroeder J, Dunning J, Chan AHH, et al., 2024,
Not so social in old age: demography as one driver of decreasing sociality
, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 379, ISSN: 0962-8436 -
Journal articleHancock PA, North A, Leach AW, et al., 2024,
The potential of gene drives in malaria vector species to control malaria in African environments
, NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, Vol: 15 -
Journal articleKontopoulos D-G, Sentis A, Daufresne M, et al., 2024,
No universal mathematical model for thermal performance curves across traits and taxonomic groups
, Nature Communications, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2041-1723In ectotherms, the performance of physiological, ecological and life-history traits universally increases with temperature to a maximum before decreasing again. Identifying the most appropriate thermal performance model for a specific trait type has broad applications, from metabolic modelling at the cellular level to forecasting the effects of climate change on population, ecosystem and disease transmission dynamics. To date, numerous mathematical models have been designed, but a thorough comparison among them is lacking. In particular, we do not know if certain models consistently outperform others and how factors such as sampling resolution and trait or organismal identity influence model performance. To fill this knowledge gap, we compile 2,739 thermal performance datasets from diverse traits and taxa, to which we fit a comprehensive set of 83 existing mathematical models. We detect remarkable variation in model performance that is not primarily driven by sampling resolution, trait type, or taxonomic information. Our results reveal a surprising lack of well-defined scenarios in which certain models are more appropriate than others. To aid researchers in selecting the appropriate set of models for any given dataset or research objective, we derive a classification of the 83 models based on the average similarity of their fits.
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