@article{Sognnaes:2021:10.1038/s41558-021-01206-3,
author = {Sognnaes, I and Gambhir, A and van, de Ven D-J and Nikas, A and Anger-Kraavi, A and Bui, H and Campagnolo, L and Delpiazzo, E and Doukas, H and Giarola, S and Grant, N and Hawkes, A and Köberle, AC and Kolpakov, A and Mittal, S and Moreno, J and Perdana, S and Rogelj, J and Vielle, M and Peters, GP},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-021-01206-3},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
pages = {1055--1062},
title = {A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01206-3},
volume = {11},
year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - Most of the integrated assessment modelling literature focuses on cost-effective pathways towards given temperature goals. Conversely, using seven diverse integrated assessment models, we project global energy CO2 emissions trajectories on the basis of near-term mitigation efforts and two assumptions on how these efforts continue post-2030. Despite finding a wide range of emissions by 2050, nearly all the scenarios have median warming of less than 3 °C in 2100. However, the most optimistic scenario is still insufficient to limit global warming to 2 °C. We furthermore highlight key modelling choices inherent to projecting where emissions are headed. First, emissions are more sensitive to the choice of integrated assessment model than to the assumed mitigation effort, highlighting the importance of heterogeneous model intercomparisons. Differences across models reflect diversity in baseline assumptions and impacts of near-term mitigation efforts. Second, the common practice of using economy-wide carbon prices to represent policy exaggerates carbon capture and storage use compared with explicitly modelling policies.
AU  - Sognnaes,I
AU  - Gambhir,A
AU  - van,de Ven D-J
AU  - Nikas,A
AU  - Anger-Kraavi,A
AU  - Bui,H
AU  - Campagnolo,L
AU  - Delpiazzo,E
AU  - Doukas,H
AU  - Giarola,S
AU  - Grant,N
AU  - Hawkes,A
AU  - Köberle,AC
AU  - Kolpakov,A
AU  - Mittal,S
AU  - Moreno,J
AU  - Perdana,S
AU  - Rogelj,J
AU  - Vielle,M
AU  - Peters,GP
DO  - 10.1038/s41558-021-01206-3
EP  - 1062
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 1758-678X
SP  - 1055
TI  - A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts
T2  - Nature Climate Change
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01206-3
UR  - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01206-3
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/93271
VL  - 11
ER  - 

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