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  • Journal article
    Laverty AA, Millett C, Majeed A, Vamos EPet al., 2020,

    COVID-19 presents opportunities and threats to transport and health

    , Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, Vol: 113, Pages: 251-254, ISSN: 0141-0768
  • Journal article
    Anindya K, Lee JT, McPake B, Wilopo SA, Millett C, Carvalho Net al., 2020,

    Impact of Indonesia's national health insurance scheme on inequality in access to maternal health services: A propensity score matched analysis

    , JOURNAL OF GLOBAL HEALTH, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2047-2978
  • Journal article
    McKay A, Negi NS, Murukutla N, Laverty A, Puri P, Uttekar BV, Mullin S, Millett Cet al., 2020,

    Trends in tobacco, alcohol and branded fast-food imagery in Bollywood films, 1994-2013

    , PLoS One, Vol: 15, ISSN: 1932-6203

    Background and aimsExposure to tobacco, alcohol and fast-food use in films is associated with initiation of these behaviours. India is the world’s largest film producer, but the extent of such imagery in Bollywood (Hindi cinema) films is unclear. We therefore aimed to describe the extent of and trends in tobacco, alcohol and fast-food imagery in Bollywood films, between 1994–2013.MethodsFor the 15 top-grossing films each year between 1994–2013, the number of five-minute intervals containing product images were determined separately for tobacco, alcohol and fast-food. Both the proportion of films containing at least one image occurrence, and occurrences per film, were described overall and by year. Negative binomial regression described associations between film rating and occurrences/film, and estimated time-trends in occurrences/film, adjusted for rating.ResultsWe analysed 93 U-rated (unrestricted), 150 U/A-rated (parental guidance for children aged <12 years) and 55 A-rated (restricted to adult audience) films, containing 9,226 five-minute intervals (mean intervals/film 30.8, SD 4.0). 70% (n = 210), 93% (n = 278) and 21% (n = 62) of films contained at least one tobacco, alcohol and fast-food occurrence, respectively. Corresponding total mean occurrences/film were 4.0 (SD 4.9), 7.0 (4.7) and 0.4 (0.9). Tobacco occurrences were more common in U/A films (incidence rate ratio 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.06–2.09) and A films (2.95; 1.95–4.48) than U-rated films. Alcohol occurrences were also more common in A-rated films than U-rated films (1.48; 1.15–1.85). Tobacco occurrences/film became less common over the observed period (adjusted trend -4% per annum; -2 to -7%; p <0.001), while alcohol (+2%; 0–3%; p = 0.02), and fast food (+8%; 2–14%; p = 0.01) occurrences/film became more common.ConclusionsAlthough the extent of tobacco imagery in Bollywood films fell over 1994–2013, it is still frequently observed.

  • Journal article
    Jawad M, Millett C, Sullivan R, Alturki F, Roberts B, Vamos Eet al., 2020,

    The impact of armed conflict on cancer among civilian populations in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

    , Ecancermedicalscience, Vol: 14, ISSN: 1754-6605

    Commitee On Publication EthicsecancermedicalscienceSubmit articleArticlesEditorialsSpecial issuesAuthor interviewsCategorySub-categoryArticle typeVolumeKeywordBookmark and ShareArticle metrics: 204 viewshttps://doi.org/10.3332/ecancer.2020.1039Abstract | Full Article | PDFReviewThe impact of armed conflict on cancer among civilian populations in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic reviewMohammed Jawad1, Christopher Millett1, Richard Sullivan2, Fadel Alturki3, Bayard Roberts4 and Eszter P Vamos11Public Health Policy Evaluation Unit, Imperial College London, Hammersmith, London W6 8RP, UK2Institute of Cancer Policy, Cancer Epidemiology, Population and Global Health, King's College London and Guy's & St Thomas' NHS Trust, London, UK3Faculty of Medicine, American University of Beirut, Lebanon4Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UKAbstractBackground: Armed conflicts are increasingly impacting countries with a high burden of cancer. The aim of this study is to systematically review the literature on the impact of armed conflict on cancer in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).Methods: In November 2019, we searched five medical databases (Embase, Medline, Global Health, PsychINFO and the Web of Science) without date, language or study design restrictions. We included studies assessing the association between armed conflict and any cancer among civilian populations in LMICs. We systematically re-analysed the data from original studies and assessed quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Data were analysed descriptively by cancer site.Results: Of 1,543 citations screened, we included 20 studies assessing 8 armed conflicts and 13 site-specific cancers (total study population: 70,172). Two-thirds of the studies were of low methodological quality (score <5) and their findings were often conflicting. However, among outcomes assessed by three or more studies, we found some evi

  • Journal article
    Patterson R, Panter J, Vamos EP, Cummins S, Millett C, Laverty AAet al., 2020,

    Associations between commute mode and cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality, and cancer incidence, using linked Census data over 25 years in England and Wales: a cohort study

    , Lancet Planetary Health, Vol: 4, Pages: E186-E194, ISSN: 2542-5196

    BackgroundActive travel is increasingly recognised as an important source of physical activity. We aimed to describe associations between commute mode and cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality.MethodsWe analysed data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study of England and Wales (ONS-LS), which linked data from the Census of England and Wales (henceforth referred to as the Census) for 1991, 2001, and 2011 to mortality and cancer registrations. The cohort included individuals traced in the ONS-LS who were economically active (ie, aged ≥16 years, not retired from work, and not a full-time carer). Commuting by private motorised transport, public transport, walking, and cycling were compared in terms of all-cause mortality, cancer mortality, cardiovascular disease mortality, and cancer incidence, using Cox proportional-hazards models with time-varying covariates. Models were adjusted for age, sex, housing tenure, marital status, ethnicity, university education, car access, population density, socioeconomic classification, Carstairs index quintile, long-term illness, and year entered the study, and were additionally stratified by socioeconomic group.FindingsBetween the 1991 Census and the 2011 Census, 784 677 individuals contributed data for at least one Census, of whom 394 746 were included in the ONS-LS and were considered to be economically active working-age individuals. 13 983 people died, 3172 from cardiovascular disease and 6509 from cancer, and there were 20 980 incident cancer cases. In adjusted models, compared with commuting by private motorised vehicle, bicycle commuting was associated with a 20% reduced rate of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0·80, 95% CI 0·73–0·89), a 24% decreased rate of cardiovascular disease mortality (0·76, 0·61–0·93), a 16% lower rate of cancer mortality (0·84, 0·73–0·98), and an 11% reduced rate of incident ca

  • Journal article
    Rauber F, Steele EM, Louzada MLC, Millett C, Monteiro CA, Levy RBet al., 2020,

    Ultra-processed food consumption and indicators of obesity in the United Kingdom population (2008-2016)

    , PLOS ONE, Vol: 15, ISSN: 1932-6203
  • Journal article
    Chambers T, Millett C, Sassi F, 2020,

    New Zealand's Public Services Act: a policy opportunity for cross-government action on unhealthy products

    , PERSPECTIVES IN PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 140, Pages: 144-145, ISSN: 1757-9139
  • Journal article
    Palladino R, Tabak A, Khunti K, Valabhji J, Majeed F, Millett C, Vamos Eet al., 2020,

    Association between pre-diabetes and microvascular and macrovascular disease in newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes

    , BMJ Open Diabetes Research and Care, Vol: 8, ISSN: 2052-4897

    Objective The associated risk of vascular disease following diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in people previously identified as having pre-diabetes in real-world settings is unknown. We examined the presence of microvascular and macrovascular disease in individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes by glycemic status within 3 years before diagnosis.Research design and methods We identified 159 736 individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink database in England between 2004 and 2017. We used logistic regression models to compare presence of microvascular (retinopathy and nephropathy) and macrovascular (acute coronary syndrome, cerebrovascular and peripheral arterial disease) disease at the time of type 2 diabetes diagnosis by prior glycemic status.Results Half of the study population (49.9%) had at least one vascular disease, over one-third (37.4%) had microvascular disease, and almost a quarter (23.5%) had a diagnosed macrovascular disease at the time of type 2 diabetes diagnosis.Compared with individuals with glycemic values within the normal range, those detected with pre-diabetes before the diagnosis had 76% and 14% increased odds of retinopathy and nephropathy (retinopathy: adjusted OR (AOR) 1.76, 95% CI 1.69 to 1.85; nephropathy: AOR 1.14, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.19), and 7% higher odds of the diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.12) in fully adjusted models at time of diabetes diagnosis.Conclusions Microvascular and macrovascular diseases are detected in 37%–24% of people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes. Pre-diabetes before diagnosis of type 2 diabetes is associated with increased odds of microvascular disease and acute coronary syndrome. Detection of pre-diabetes might represent an opportunity for reducing the burden of microvascular and macrovascular disease through heightened attention to screening for vascular complications.

  • Journal article
    Esposito L, Villasenor A, Cuevas Rodriguez E, Millett Cet al., 2020,

    The economic gradient of obesity in Mexico: Independent predictive roles of absolute and relative wealth by gender

    , Social Science and Medicine, Vol: 250, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0277-9536

    Despite the vast literature on the economic gradient of obesity, no study investigates the independent predictive roles of absolute and relative standards of living using a large nationally representative adult sample. This gap limits our ability to discern ‘material’ and ‘psychosocial’ pathways to obesity as well as our understanding of the role played by economic inequality in the growing obesity epidemic. Using a large and nationally representative Mexican dataset, we find that absolute wealth and relative deprivation are independently related to obesity, and that such relationships are patterned by sex. Absolute wealth predicts body mass index as well as abdominal obesity according to an inverted-U shape for both sexes, and more markedly so for females. Relative deprivation predicts higher body mass index for females and higher waist circumference for both sexes, with highly relatively deprived females being 24.29% (95% CI [24.26, 24.31]) more likely to be obese and 34.46% (95% CI [34.40,34.53]) more likely to be abdominal obese, and highly relatively deprived males being 14.91% (95% CI [14.88,14.93] more likely to be abdominal obese. Our results offer a new perspective on the economic gradient of obesity and highlight the potential impact of economic inequality, especially for women. Greater awareness of the independent and sex-specific roles of the absolute and relative facets of economic status is needed to better understand and address the obesity epidemic.

  • Journal article
    Laverty A, Hone T, Vamos EP, Anyanwu PE, Taylor Robinson D, de Vocht F, Millett C, Hopkinson NSet al., 2020,

    Impact of banning smoking in cars with children on exposure to second-hand smoke: a natural experiment in England and Scotland

    , Thorax, Vol: 75, Pages: 345-347, ISSN: 0040-6376

    England banned smoking in cars carrying children in 2015 and Scotland in 2016. With survey data from three years for both countries (NEngland=3,483-6,920,NScotland=232-319), we used this natural experiment to assess impacts of the English ban using logistic regression within a difference-in-differences framework. Among children aged 13-15 years, self-reported levels of regular exposure to smoke in cars were 3.4% in 2012, 2.2% in 2014 and 1.3% in 2016 for Scotland and 6.3%, 5.9% and 1.6% in England. The ban in England was associated with a -4.1% (95%CI -4.9%;-3.3%) absolute reduction (72% relative reduction) in exposure to tobacco smoke among children.

  • Journal article
    McKay A, Goodman A, van Sluijs E, Millett C, Laverty AAet al., 2020,

    Cycle training and factors associated with cycling among adolescents in England

    , Journal of Transport & Health, Vol: 16, Pages: 1-7, ISSN: 2214-1405

    BackgroundCycling has the potential to encourage physical activity as well as advancing societal goals such as reducing carbon emissions; encouraging cycling is therefore a policy goal in many contexts. We analysed individual level data from the whole of England on factors associated with cycling among adolescents, including cycle training delivered by the age of 11 years in primary schools.MethodsData came from the nationally representative Millennium Cohort Study collected when participants were aged 13–15 years (adolescents). We assessed frequency of cycling at least once per week (regular cycling) and used logistic regression to assess how this differed across characteristics including demographic, health and environmental factors, as well as receiving cycle training (‘Bikeability’) in primary school.ResultsWe found that 21.0% of adolescents cycled at least once per week. In fully adjusted analyses, this was more common among boys than girls (32.5% vs. 9.4%, p < 0.001), and those in rural areas than urban areas (24.9% vs. 20.3%, p < 0.001). Adolescents in areas with higher prevalence of adult cycle commuting were more likely to cycle regularly (26.1% in high cycling areas vs. 19.3% in low cycling areas, p < 0.001). Participants offered cycle training in primary school were not more likely to cycle regularly as adolescents (21.7% vs. 22.3%, p = 0.528).DiscussionApproximately one in five adolescents in England cycles regularly, although being offered cycle training in primary school was not linked to greater cycling. Many of the factors associated with adolescent cycling are similar to those for adults and adolescents are more likely to cycle in areas with higher levels of adult cycling.

  • Journal article
    Palladino R, Vamos E, Chang K, Khunti K, Majeed A, Millett Cet al., 2020,

    Evaluation of the diabetes screening component of a national cardiovascular risk assessment programme in England: a retrospective cohort study

    , Scientific Reports, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2045-2322

    Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) is increasing but the effectiveness of large-scale diabetes screening programmes is debated. We assessed associations between coverage of a national cardiovascular and diabetes risk assessment programme in England (NHS Health Check) and detection and management of incident cases of non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH) and T2D. Retrospective analysis employing propensity score covariate adjustment method of prospectively collected data of 348,987 individuals aged 40–74 years and registered with 455 general practices in England (January 2009-May 2016). We examined differences in diagnosis of NDH and T2D, and changes in blood glucose levels and cardiovascular risk score between individuals registered with general practices with different levels (tertiles) of programme coverage. Over the study period 7,126 cases of NDH and 12,171 cases of T2D were detected. Compared with low coverage practices, incidence rate of detection in medium and high coverage practices were 15% and 19% higher for NDH and 10% and 9% higher for T2D, respectively. Individuals with NDH in high coverage practices had 0.2 mmol/L lower mean fasting plasma glucose and 0.9% lower cardiovascular risk score at follow-up. General practices actively participating in the programme had higher detection of NDH and T2D and improved management of blood glucose and cardiovascular risk factors.

  • Journal article
    van Schalkwyk MCI, McKee M, Been JV, Millett C, Filippidis FTet al., 2019,

    Analysis of tobacco industry pricing strategies in 23 European Union countries using commercial pricing data

    , Tobacco Control, Vol: 28, Pages: e102-e109, ISSN: 0964-4563

    Background The tobacco industry (TI) can act to undermine the impact of tobacco tax increases by adopting various pricing strategies. Little is known about strategies used across the European Union (EU), except for the UK.Aim To examine pricing strategies adopted by the TI in the EU, and whether they differ by cigarette price segment, or between manufactured and roll-your-own (RYO) cigarettes.Methods This is a longitudinal analysis of commercial pricing data for manufactured and RYO cigarettes from 23 EU countries in 2006–2017. Price and revenue trends were explored. Linear regression estimated the average annual change in revenue, and linear fixed-effects panel regression models were used to explore the association between changes in median revenue (net of tax and adjusted for inflation) and tax increases in different price segments of manufactured cigarettes.Results Over the 11-year period price gaps were observed in all countries. The average annual adjusted median net revenue per pack increased in 19 of 23 countries for manufactured and RYO cigarettes. A tax increase was associated with a significant decrease of −€0.09 in adjusted median net revenue per pack (95% CI −0.16 to −0.03) in the cheap cigarette price segment, while no change was detected in the expensive cigarette price segment (−€0.05, 95% CI −0.11 to 0.01).Conclusion Across the EU, pricing strategies adopted by the TI maintained or increased price gaps and retained cheaper tobacco products in the market, diminishing the impact of tobacco tax increases. Further strengthening of tobacco taxation policy is needed to maximise public health impact.

  • Journal article
    Nazar G, Chang KC-M, Srivastava S, Pearce N, Karan A, Millett Cet al., 2019,

    Impact of India’s National Tobacco Control Programme on bidi and cigarette consumption: a difference-in-differences analysis

    , Tobacco Control, Vol: 29, Pages: 103-110, ISSN: 0964-4563

    Background Despite the importance of decreasing tobacco use to achieve mortality reduction targets of the Sustainable Development Goals in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), evaluations of tobacco control programmes in these settings are scarce. We assessed the impacts of India’s National Tobacco Control Programme (NTCP), as implemented in 42 districts during 2007–2009, on household-reported consumption of bidis and cigarettes.Methods Secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from nationally representative Household Consumer Expenditure Surveys (1999–2000; 2004–2005 and 2011–2012). Outcomes were: any bidi/cigarette consumption in the household and monthly consumption of bidi/cigarette sticks per person. A difference-in-differences two-part model was used to compare changes in bidi/cigarette consumption between NTCP intervention and control districts, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and time-based heterogeneity.Findings There was an overall decline in household-reported bidi and cigarette consumption between 1999–2000 and 2011–2012. However, compared with control districts, NTCP districts had no significantly different reductions in the proportions of households reporting bidi (adjusted OR (AOR): 1.03, 95% CI: 0.84 to 1.28) or cigarette (AOR: 1.01 to 95% CI: 0.82 to 1.26) consumption, or for the monthly per person consumption of bidi (adjusted coefficient: 0.07, 95% CI: −0.13 to 0.28) or cigarette (adjusted coefficient: −0.002, 95% CI: −0.26 to 0.26) sticks among bidi/cigarette consuming households.Interpretation Our findings indicate that early implementation of the NTCP may not have produced reductions in tobacco use reflecting generally poor performance against the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control objectives in India. This study highlights the importance of strengthening the implementation and enforcement of tobacco control policies in LMICs to ach

  • Journal article
    Hone T, Mirelman AJ, Rasella D, Paes-Sousa R, Barreto ML, Rocha R, Millett Cet al., 2019,

    Effect of economic recession and impact of health and social protection expenditures on adult mortality: a longitudinal analysis of 5565 Brazilian municipalities

    , The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 7, Pages: E1575-E1583, ISSN: 2214-109X

    BackgroundEconomic recession might worsen health in low-income and middle-income countries with precarious job markets and weak social protection systems. Between 2014–16, a major economic crisis occurred in Brazil. We aimed to assess the association between economic recession and adult mortality in Brazil and to ascertain whether health and social welfare programmes in the country had a protective effect against the negative impact of this recession.MethodsIn this longitudinal analysis, we obtained data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics, the Ministry of Social Development and Fight Against Hunger, and the Information System for the Public Budget in Health to assess changes in state unemployment level and mortality among adults (aged ≥15 years) in Brazil between 2012 and 2017. Outcomes were municipal all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for all adults and across population subgroups stratified by age, sex, and race. We used fixed-effect panel regression models with quarterly timepoints to assess the association between recession and changes in mortality. Mortality and unemployment rates were detrended using Hodrick–Prescott filters to assess cyclical variation and control for underlying trends. We tested interactions between unemployment and terciles of municipal social protection and health-care expenditure to assess whether the relationship between unemployment and mortality varied.FindingsBetween 2012 and 2017, 7 069 242 deaths were recorded among adults (aged ≥15 years) in 5565 municipalities in Brazil. During this time period, the mean crude municipal adult mortality rate increased by 8·0% from 143·1 deaths per 100 000 in 2012 to 154·5 deaths per 100 000 in 2017. An increase in unemployment rate of 1 percentage-point was associated with a 0·50 increase per 100 000 population per rter (95% CI 0·09–0·91) in all-cause mortality, mainl

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