Publications

Journal article

Luiselli J, Overcast I, Rominger A, Ruffley M, Morlon H, Rosindell Jet al., 2024,

Detecting the ecological footprint of selection

, PLoS One, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1932-6203

The structure of communities is influenced by many ecological and evolutionary processes, but the way these manifest in classic biodiversity patterns often remains unclear. Here we aim to distinguish the ecological footprint of selection-through competition or environmental filtering-from that of neutral processes that are invariant to species identity. We build on existing Massive Eco-evolutionary Synthesis Simulations (MESS), which uses information from three biodiversity axes-species abundances, genetic diversity, and trait variation-to distinguish between mechanistic processes. To correctly detect and characterise competition, we add a new and more realistic form of competition that explicitly compares the traits of each pair of individuals. Our results are qualitatively different to those of previous work in which competition is based on the distance of each individual's trait to the community mean. We find that our new form of competition is easier to identify in empirical data compared to the alternatives. This is especially true when trait data are available and used in the inference procedure. Our findings hint that signatures in empirical data previously attributed to neutrality may in fact be the result of pairwise-acting selective forces. We conclude that gathering more different types of data, together with more advanced mechanistic models and inference as done here, could be the key to unravelling the mechanisms of community assembly and question the relative roles of neutral and selective processes.

Journal article

Affinito F, Kordas RL, Matias MG, Pawar Set al., 2024,

Metabolic plasticity drives mismatches in physiological traits between prey and predator

, Communications Biology, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2399-3642

Metabolic rate, the rate of energy use, underpins key ecological traits of organisms, from development and locomotion to interaction rates between individuals. In a warming world, the temperature-dependence of metabolic rate is anticipated to shift predator-prey dynamics. Yet, there is little real-world evidence on the effects of warming on trophic interactions. We measured the respiration rates of aquatic larvae of three insect species from populations experiencing a natural temperature gradient in a large-scale mesocosm experiment. Using a mechanistic model we predicted the effects of warming on these taxa’s predator-prey interaction rates. We found that species-specific differences in metabolic plasticity lead to mismatches in the temperature-dependence of their relative velocities, resulting in altered predator-prey interaction rates. This study underscores the role of metabolic plasticity at the species level in modifying trophic interactions and proposes a mechanistic modelling approach that allows an efficient, high-throughput estimation of climate change threats across species pairs.

Journal article

Rosindell J, Manson K, Gumbs R, Pearse WD, Steel Met al., 2024,

Phylogenetic Biodiversity Metrics Should Account for Both Accumulation and Attrition of Evolutionary Heritage

, SYSTEMATIC BIOLOGY, Vol: 73, Pages: 158-182, ISSN: 1063-5157

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Journal article

Sandoval Calle D, Prentice IC, Nobrega R, 2024,

Simple process-led algorithms for simulating habitats (SPLASH v 2.0): robust calculations of water and energy fluxes

, Geoscientific Model Development, Vol: 17, Pages: 4229-4309, ISSN: 1991-959X

The current representation of key processes in Land Surface Models (LSM) for estimating water and energy balances still relies heavily on empirical equations that require calibration oriented to site-specific characteristics. When multiple parameters are used, different combinations of parameter values can produce equally acceptable results, leading to a risk of obtaining “right answers for wrong reasons”, compromising the reproducibility of the simulations and limiting the ecological interpretability of the results. To address this problem and reduce the need for free parameters, here we present novel formulations based on first-principles to calculate key components of water and energy balances, extending the already parsimonious SPLASHmodel v.1.0 (Davis et al. 2017, GMD). We found analytical solutions for many processes, enabling us to increase spatial resolution and include the terrain effects directly in the calculations without unreasonably inflating computational demands. This calibration-free model estimates quantities such as net radiation, evapotranspiration, condensation, soil water content,surface runoff, subsurface lateral flow and snow-water equivalent. These quantities are derived from readily meteorological data such as near-surface air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, and soil physical properties. Whenever empirical formulations were required, e.g. pedotransfer functions and albedo-snow cover relationships, we selected and optimized thebest-performing equations through a combination of remote sensing and globally distributed terrestrial observational datasets. Simulations at global scales at different resolutions were run to evaluate spatial patterns, while simulations with point-based observations were run to evaluate seasonal patterns using data from hundreds of stations and comparisons with the VIC-3L model, demonstrating improved performance based on statistical tests and observational comparisons. In summary, our m

Journal article

Connolly JB, Burt A, Christophides G, Diabate A, Habtewold T, Hancock PA, James AA, Kayondo JK, Lwetoijera DW, Manjurano A, McKemey AR, Santos MR, Windbichler N, Randazzo Fet al., 2024,

Considerations for first field trials of low-threshold gene drive for malaria vector control

, Malaria Journal, Vol: 23, ISSN: 1475-2875

Sustainable reductions in African malaria transmission require innovative tools for mosquito control. One proposal involves the use of low-threshold gene drive in Anopheles vector species, where a 'causal pathway' would be initiated by (i) the release of a gene drive system in target mosquito vector species, leading to (ii) its transmission to subsequent generations, (iii) its increase in frequency and spread in target mosquito populations, (iv) its simultaneous propagation of a linked genetic trait aimed at reducing vectorial capacity for Plasmodium, and (v) reduced vectorial capacity for parasites in target mosquito populations as the gene drive system reaches fixation in target mosquito populations, causing (vi) decreased malaria incidence and prevalence. Here the scope, objectives, trial design elements, and approaches to monitoring for initial field releases of such gene dive systems are considered, informed by the successful implementation of field trials of biological control agents, as well as other vector control tools, including insecticides, Wolbachia, larvicides, and attractive-toxic sugar bait systems. Specific research questions to be addressed in initial gene drive field trials are identified, and adaptive trial design is explored as a potentially constructive and flexible approach to facilitate testing of the causal pathway. A fundamental question for decision-makers for the first field trials will be whether there should be a selective focus on earlier points of the pathway, such as genetic efficacy via measurement of the increase in frequency and spread of the gene drive system in target populations, or on wider interrogation of the entire pathway including entomological and epidemiological efficacy. How and when epidemiological efficacy will eventually be assessed will be an essential consideration before decisions on any field trial protocols are finalized and implemented, regardless of whether initial field trials focus exclusively on the measur

Journal article

Gayford J, Brazeau M, Naylor GJP, 2024,

Evolutionary trends in the elasmobranch neurocranium

, Scientific Reports, Vol: 14, ISSN: 2045-2322

The neurocranium (braincase) is one of the defining vertebrate characters. Housing the brain and other key sensory organs, articulating with the jaws and contributing to the shape of the anteriormost portion of the body, the braincase is undoubtedly of great functional importance. Through studying relationships between braincase shape and ecology we can gain an improved understanding of form-function relationships in extant and fossil taxa. Elasmobranchii (sharks and rays) represent an important case study of vertebrate braincase diversity as their neurocranium is simplified and somewhat decoupled from other components of the cranium relative to other vertebrates. Little is known about the associations between ecology and braincase shape in this clade. In this study we report patterns of mosaic cranial evolution in Elasmobranchii that differ significantly from those present in other clades. The degree of evolutionary modularity also differs between Selachii and Batoidea. In both cases innovation in the jaw suspension appears to have driven shifts in patterns of integration and modularity, subsequently facilitating ecological diversification. Our results confirm the importance of water depth and biogeography as drivers of elasmobranch cranial diversity and indicate that skeletal articulation between the neurocranium and jaws represents a major constraint upon the evolution of braincase shape in vertebrates.

Journal article

Pirzio-Biroli A, Crowley SL, Siriwardena GM, Plummer KE, Schroeder J, White RLet al., 2024,

Not in the countryside please! Investigating UK residents’ perceptions of an introduced species, the ring-necked parakeet (Psittacula krameri)

, NeoBiota, Vol: 93, Pages: 1-24, ISSN: 1314-2488

Wildlife management can generate social conflict when stakeholder perceptions of the target species are not considered. Introduced Ring-necked Parakeets (RNP) are established in the UK and have been added to the ‘general licence’ of birds that can be killed to prevent serious economic damage. We aimed to better understand perceptions of RNPs on a nationwide scale to inform mitigation actions for potential future conflict over RNP management. We surveyed 3,947 UK residents to understand awareness of, knowledge of and attitudes towards the RNP across the UK.We found that most respondents (90.2%) were aware of the RNP. Almost half of respondents (45.9%) held negative opinions, particularly against the RNP in rural areas (64.7%), suggesting landscape contexts influence attitudes. Respondent preference for the RNP was low in local neighbourhoods (7.80%) although the species was considered aesthetically pleasing by most (83.0%). Many respondents knew the species’ name (54.9%), but underestimated current population numbers in the UK (82.6%) and few knew its full native range (10.0%). We identified respondents’ ecological interest, age, education, preference for, awareness of and knowledge of the RNP as significant factors associated with perceptions.Our findings suggest that the RNP presents a complex socio-environmental challenge, with respondent awareness, knowledge and attitudes each forming an important component of perceptions towards this species. We recommend that wildlife managers utilise our findings and cohesive approach to enhance future RNP perception research in the UK and abroad and towards the success of any proposed management initiatives under the UK general licence.

Journal article

Lewis-Brown E, Jennings N, Mills M, Ewers Ret al., 2024,

Comparison of carbon management and emissions of universities that did and did not adopt voluntary carbon offsets

, Climate Policy, Vol: 24, Pages: 706-722, ISSN: 1469-3062

The urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, remove carbon from the atmosphere and stabilize natural carbon sinks has led to the development of many carbon management measures, increasingly including voluntary carbon offsets (VCOs). We studied carbon management in universities, institutions with large carbon footprints and considerable influence in climate science and policy fora. However, concerns that VCOs may deter adopters (including universities) from adopting other carbon reduction measures and limit emissions reductions, for example, through moral hazard, have been raised but understudied. We compared the carbon management characteristics (priorities, policies, practices and emissions) of universities that did and did not adopt VCOs. We found adopters measured carbon emissions for longer, and had set targets to reach net zero earlier than had non-adopters. Adopters of VCOs also undertook more carbon management practices in both 2010 and 2020 than non-adopters. We also found that both adopters and non-adopters significantly increased their carbon management practices over the decade studied, but with no difference between groups. Gross CO2 emissions were reduced significantly over time by adopters of VCOs but not by non-adopters, whereas carbon intensity and percentage annual emissions reductions did not relate to adoption status. Consequently, our study showed no indication of mitigation deterrence due to adoption of VCOs at the universities studied. Rather, greater emissions reductions correlated with earlier net zero target dates, and a higher number of policies and carbon management practices. However, our study was constrained to universities that were affiliated with a national environmental network, so research beyond these organizations, and with individuals, would be useful. The survey was voluntary, exposing the study to potential self-selection bias so the findings may not be generalized beyond the study group. Finally, we found the carbon ac

Journal article

Zhou L, Liu F, Achterberg EP, Engel A, Campbell PGC, Fortin C, Huang L, Tan Yet al., 2024,

Promoting effects of aluminum addition on chlorophyll biosynthesis and growth of two cultured iron‐limited marine diatoms

, Limnology and Oceanography, Vol: 69, Pages: 1157-1171, ISSN: 0024-3590

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Aluminum (Al) may play a role in the ocean's capacity for absorbing atmospheric CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> via influencing carbon fixation, export, and sequestration. Aluminum fertilization, especially in iron (Fe)‐limited high‐nutrient, low‐chlorophyll ocean regions, has been proposed as a potential CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> removal strategy to mitigate global warming. However, how Al addition would influence the solubility and bioavailability of Fe as well as the physiology of Fe‐limited phytoplankton has not yet been examined. Here, we show that Al addition (20 and 100 nM) had little influence on the Fe solubility in surface seawater and decreased the Fe bio‐uptake by 11–22% in Fe‐limited diatom <jats:italic>Thalassiosira weissflogii</jats:italic> in Fe‐buffered media. On the other hand, the Al addition significantly increased the rate of chlorophyll biosynthesis by 45–60% for Fe‐limited <jats:italic>T. weissflogii</jats:italic> and 81–102% for Fe‐limited <jats:italic>Thalassiosira pseudonana</jats:italic>, as well as their cell size, cellular chlorophyll content, photosynthetic quantum efficiency (<jats:italic>F</jats:italic><jats:sub>v</jats:sub>/<jats:italic>F</jats:italic><jats:sub>m</jats:sub>) and growth rate. Under Fe‐sufficient conditions, the Al addition still led to an increased growth rate, though the beneficial effects of Al addition on chlorophyll biosynthesis were no longer apparent. These results suggest that Al may facilitate chlorophyll biosynthesis and benefit the photosynthetic efficiency and growth of Fe‐limited diatoms. We speculate that Al addition may enhance intracellular Fe use efficiency for chlorophyll biosynthesis by facilitating the superoxide‐mediated intracellular reduction of Fe(III) to Fe(II). Our study provides new evidence and support for the

Journal article

Sun Y, Dunning J, Taylor T, Schroeder J, Zollinger SAet al., 2024,

Calls of Manx shearwater <i>Puffinus puffinus</i> contain individual signatures

, JOURNAL OF AVIAN BIOLOGY, Vol: 2024, ISSN: 0908-8857

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Journal article

Mwima R, Hui T-YJ, Kayondo JK, Burt Aet al., 2024,

The population genetics of partial diapause, with applications to the aestivating malaria mosquito <i>Anopheles coluzzii</i>

, MOLECULAR ECOLOGY RESOURCES, Vol: 24, ISSN: 1755-098X

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Journal article

Pereira HM, Martins IS, Rosa IMD, Kim H, Leadley P, Popp A, van Vuuren DP, Hurtt G, Quoss L, Arneth A, Baisero D, Bakkenes M, Chaplin-Kramer R, Chini L, Di Marco M, Ferrier S, Fujimori S, Guerra CA, Harfoot M, Harwood TD, Hasegawa T, Haverd V, Havlík P, Hellweg S, Hilbers JP, Hill SLL, Hirata A, Hoskins AJ, Humpenöder F, Janse JH, Jetz W, Johnson JA, Krause A, Leclère D, Matsui T, Meijer JR, Merow C, Obersteiner M, Ohashi H, De Palma A, Poulter B, Purvis A, Quesada B, Rondinini C, Schipper AM, Settele J, Sharp R, Stehfest E, Strassburg BBN, Takahashi K, Talluto MV, Thuiller W, Titeux N, Visconti P, Ware C, Wolf F, Alkemade Ret al., 2024,

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.

, Science, Vol: 384, Pages: 458-465

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Journal article

Blackford K, Kasoar M, Burton C, Burke E, Prentice IC, Voulgarakis Aet al., 2024,

INFERNO-peat v1.0.0: a representation of northern high latitude peat fires in the JULES-INFERNO global fire model

, Geoscientific Model Development, Vol: 17, Pages: 3063-3079, ISSN: 1991-959X

Peat fires in the northern high latitudes have the potential to burn vast amounts of carbon-rich organic soil, releasing large quantities of long-term stored carbon to the atmosphere. Due to anthropogenic activities and climate change, peat fires are increasing in frequency and intensity across the high latitudes. However, at present they are not explicitly included in most fire models. Here we detail the development of INFERNO-peat, the first parameterization of peat fires in the JULES-INFERNO (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments) fire model. INFERNO-peat utilizes knowledge from lab and field-based studies on peat fire ignition and spread to be able to model peat burnt area, burn depth, and carbon emissions, based on data of the moisture content, inorganic content, bulk density, soil temperature, and water table depth of peat. INFERNO-peat improves the representation of burnt area in the high latitudes, with peat fires simulating on average an additional 0.305×106 km2 of burn area each year, emitting 224.10 Tg of carbon. Compared to Global Fire Emissions Database version 5 (GFED5), INFERNO-peat captures ∼ 20 % more burnt area, whereas INFERNO underestimated burning by 50 %. Additionally, INFERNO-peat substantially improves the representation of interannual variability in burnt area and subsequent carbon emissions across the high latitudes. The coefficient of variation in carbon emissions is increased from 0.071 in INFERNO to 0.127 in INFERNO-peat, an almost 80 % increase. Therefore, explicitly modelling peat fires shows a substantial improvement in the fire modelling capabilities of JULES-INFERNO, highlighting the importance of representing peatland systems in fire models.

Journal article

Zhang-Zheng H, Adu-Bredu S, Duah-Gyamfi A, Moore S, Addo-Danso S, Amissah L, Valentini R, Djagbletey G, Anum-Adjei K, Quansah J, Sarpong B, Owusu-Afriyie K, Gvozdevaite A, Tang M, Ruiz-Jaen M, Ibrahim F, Girardin C, Rifai S, Dahlsjo C, Riutta T, Deng X, Sun Y, Prentice IC, Oliveras Menor I, Malhi Yet al., 2024,

Contrasting carbon cycle along tropical forest aridity gradients in West Africa and Amazonia

, Nature Communications, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2041-1723

Tropical forests cover large areas of equatorial Africa and play a substantial role in the global carbon cycle. However, there has been a lack of biometric measurements to understand the forests’ gross and net primary productivity (GPP, NPP) and their allocation. Here we present a detailed field assessment of the carbon budget of multiple forest sites in Africa, by monitoring 14 one-hectare plots along an aridity gradient in Ghana, West Africa. When compared with an equivalent aridity gradient in Amazonia, the studied West African forests generally had higher productivity and lower carbon use efficiency (CUE). The West African aridity gradient consistently shows the highest NPP, CUE, GPP, and autotrophic respiration at a medium-aridity site, Bobiri. Notably, NPP and GPP of the site are the highest yet reported anywhere for intact forests. Widely used data products substantially underestimate productivity when compared to biometric measurements in Amazonia and Africa. Our analysis suggests that the high productivity of the African forests is linked to their large GPP allocation to canopy and semi-deciduous characteristics.

Journal article

Stiller J, Feng S, Chowdhury A-A, Rivas-Gonzalez I, Duchene DA, Fang Q, Deng Y, Kozlov A, Stamatakis A, Claramunt S, Nguyen JMT, Ho SYW, Faircloth BC, Haag J, Houde P, Cracraft J, Balaban M, Mai U, Chen G, Gao R, Zhou C, Xie Y, Huang Z, Cao Z, Yan Z, Ogilvie HA, Nakhleh L, Lindow B, Morel B, Fjeldsa J, Hosner PA, da Fonseca RR, Petersen B, Tobias JA, Szekely T, Kennedy JD, Reeve AH, Liker A, Stervander M, Antunes A, Tietze DT, Bertelsen MF, Lei F, Rahbek C, Graves GR, Schierup MH, Warnow T, Braun EL, Gilbert MTP, Jarvis ED, Mirarab S, Zhang Get al., 2024,

Complexity of avian evolution revealed by family-level genomes

, NATURE, ISSN: 0028-0836

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Journal article

Smith TP, Clegg T, Ransome E, Martin-Lilley T, Rosindell J, Woodward G, Pawar S, Bell Tet al., 2024,

High-throughput characterization of bacterial responses to complex mixtures of chemical pollutants

, Nature Microbiology, Vol: 9, Pages: 938-948, ISSN: 2058-5276

Our understanding of how microbes respond to micropollutants, such as pesticides, is almost wholly based on single-species responses to individual chemicals. However, in natural environments, microbes experience multiple pollutants simultaneously. Here we perform a matrix of multi-stressor experiments by assaying the growth of model and non-model strains of bacteria in all 255 combinations of 8 chemical stressors (antibiotics, herbicides, fungicides and pesticides). We found that bacterial strains responded in different ways to stressor mixtures, which could not be predicted simply from their phylogenetic relatedness. Increasingly complex chemical mixtures were both more likely to negatively impact bacterial growth in monoculture and more likely to reveal net interactive effects. A mixed co-culture of strains proved more resilient to increasingly complex mixtures and revealed fewer interactions in the growth response. These results show predictability in microbial population responses to chemical stressors and could increase the utility of next-generation eco-toxicological assays.

Journal article

Fung YY, Carbone C, Scott-Gatty K, Freeman R, Ewers RM, Turner Jet al., 2024,

Habitat suitability as an indicator of urbanisation potential in four UK mammals

, MAMMAL REVIEW, Vol: 54, Pages: 105-120, ISSN: 0305-1838

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Journal article

Perkins R, Barron L, Glauser G, Whitehead M, Woodward G, Goulson Det al., 2024,

Down-the-drain pathways for fipronil and imidacloprid applied as spot-on parasiticides to dogs: Estimating aquatic pollution

, Science of the Total Environment, Vol: 917, ISSN: 0048-9697

Fipronil and imidacloprid have been widely detected in UK surface waters in recent years, often at concentrations that ecotoxicological studies have shown can harm aquatic life. Down-the-drain (DTD) passage of pet flea and tick treatments are being implicated as an important source, with many of the UK's 22 million cats and dogs receiving routine, year-round preventative doses containing these parasiticides. The UK Water Industry's 3rd Chemical Investigation Programme (UKWIR CIP3) has confirmed wastewater as a major entry pathway for these chemicals into surface waters, but the routes by which they enter the wastewater system remain unclear. We addressed this knowledge gap by conducting the first quantification of DTD emissions from 98 dogs treated with spot-on ectoparasiticides containing fipronil or imidacloprid, through bathing, bed washing and washing of owners' hands. Both chemicals were detected in 100 % of washoff samples, with bathing accounting for the largest emissions per event (up to 16.8 % of applied imidacloprid and 24.5 % of applied fipronil). Modelled to account for the frequency of emitting activities, owner handwashing was identified as the largest source of DTD emissions from the population overall, with handwash emissions occurring for at least 28 days following product application and an estimated 4.9 % of imidacloprid and 3.1 % of fipronil applied in dog spot-ons passing down-the-drain via this route. The normalised daily per capita emissions for all routes combined were 8.7 μg/person/day for imidacloprid and 2.1 μg/person/day for fipronil, equivalent to 20-40 % of the daily per capita load in wastewater, as estimated from UKWIR CIP3 data. Within the current international regulatory framework adhered to by the UK, the environmental exposure of veterinary medicines intended for use in small companion animals is assumed to be low, and DTD pathways are not considered. We recommend a systematic rev

Journal article

Posse-Sarmiento V, Banks-Leite C, 2024,

The effects of edge influence on the microhabitat, diversity and life-history traits of amphibians in western Ecuador

, JOURNAL OF TROPICAL ECOLOGY, Vol: 40, ISSN: 0266-4674

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Journal article

Jackson MC, Friberg N, Moliner Cachazo L, Clark DR, Mutinova PT, O'Gorman EJ, Kordas RL, Gallo B, Pichler DE, Bespalaya Y, Aksenova OV, Milner A, Brooks SJ, Dunn N, Lee KWK, Olafsson JS, Gislason GM, Millan L, Bell T, Dumbrell AJ, Woodward Get al., 2024,

Regional impacts of warming on biodiversity and biomass in high latitude stream ecosystems across the Northern Hemisphere

, COMMUNICATIONS BIOLOGY, Vol: 7

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Journal article

Qian J, Hu T, Xiong H, Cao X, Liu F, Gosnell KJ, Xie M, Chen R, Tan Q-Get al., 2024,

Turbid Waters and Clearer Standards: Refining Water Quality Criteria for Coastal Environments by Encompassing Metal Bioavailability from Suspended Particles

, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, Vol: 58, Pages: 5244-5254, ISSN: 0013-936X

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Journal article

Rizos G, Lawson J, Mitchell S, Shah P, Wen X, Banks-Leite C, Ewers R, Schuller BWet al., 2024,

Propagating variational model uncertainty for bioacoustic call label smoothing

, Patterns, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2666-3899

Along with propagating the input toward making a prediction, Bayesian neural networks also propagate uncertainty. This has the potential to guide the training process by rejecting predictions of low confidence, and recent variational Bayesian methods can do so without Monte Carlo sampling of weights. Here, we apply sample-free methods for wildlife call detection on recordings made via passive acoustic monitoring equipment in the animals' natural habitats. We further propose uncertainty-aware label smoothing, where the smoothing probability is dependent on sample-free predictive uncertainty, in order to downweigh data samples that should contribute less to the loss value. We introduce a bioacoustic dataset recorded in Malaysian Borneo, containing overlapping calls from 30 species. On that dataset, our proposed method achieves an absolute percentage improvement of around 1.5 points on area under the receiver operating characteristic (AU-ROC), 13 points in F1, and 19.5 points in expected calibration error (ECE) compared to the point-estimate network baseline averaged across all target classes.

Journal article

Pawar S, Huxley PJ, Smallwood TRC, Nesbit ML, Chan AHH, Shocket MS, Johnson LR, Kontopoulos D-G, Cator LJet al., 2024,

Variation in temperature of peak trait performance constrains adaptation of arthropod populations to climatic warming

, Nature Ecology and Evolution, Vol: 8, Pages: 500-510, ISSN: 2397-334X

The capacity of arthropod populations to adapt to long-term climatic warming is currently uncertain. Here we combine theory and extensive data to show that the rate of their thermal adaptation to climatic warming will be constrained in two fundamental ways. First, the rate of thermal adaptation of an arthropod population is predicted to be limited by changes in the temperatures at which the performance of four key life-history traits can peak, in a specific order of declining importance: juvenile development, adult fecundity, juvenile mortality and adult mortality. Second, directional thermal adaptation is constrained due to differences in the temperature of the peak performance of these four traits, with these differences expected to persist because of energetic allocation and life-history trade-offs. We compile a new global dataset of 61 diverse arthropod species which provides strong empirical evidence to support these predictions, demonstrating that contemporary populations have indeed evolved under these constraints. Our results provide a basis for using relatively feasible trait measurements to predict the adaptive capacity of diverse arthropod populations to geographic temperature gradients, as well as ongoing and future climatic warming.

Journal article

Dunning J, Burke T, Schroeder J, 2024,

Divorce is linked with extra-pair paternity in a monogamous passerine

, JOURNAL OF AVIAN BIOLOGY, Vol: 2024, ISSN: 0908-8857

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Journal article

Chan AHH, Liu J, Burke T, Pearse WD, Schroeder Jet al., 2024,

Comparison of manual, machine learning, and hybrid methods for video annotation to extract parental care data

, JOURNAL OF AVIAN BIOLOGY, Vol: 2024, ISSN: 0908-8857

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Journal article

Gumbs R, Scott O, Bates R, Böhm M, Forest F, Gray CL, Hoffmann M, Kane D, Low C, Pearse WD, Pipins S, Tapley B, Turvey ST, Jetz W, Owen NR, Rosindell Jet al., 2024,

Global conservation status of the jawed vertebrate Tree of Life

, Nature Communications, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2041-1723

Human-driven extinction threatens entire lineages across the Tree of Life. Here we assess the conservation status of jawed vertebrate evolutionary history, using three policy-relevant approaches. First, we calculate an index of threat to overall evolutionary history, showing that we expect to lose 86-150 billion years (11-19%) of jawed vertebrate evolutionary history over the next 50-500 years. Second, we rank jawed vertebrate species by their EDGE scores to identify the highest priorities for species-focused conservation of evolutionary history, finding that chondrichthyans, ray-finned fish and testudines rank highest of all jawed vertebrates. Third, we assess the conservation status of jawed vertebrate families. We found that species within monotypic families are more likely to be threatened and more likely to be in decline than other species. We provide a baseline for the status of families at risk of extinction to catalyse conservation action. This work continues a trend of highlighting neglected groups—such as testudines, crocodylians, amphibians and chondrichthyans—as conservation priorities from a phylogenetic perspective.

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Moffett E, Gayford J, Woodward G, Pearse Wet al., 2024,

Biodiversity and ecosystem function: a global analysis of trends

Journal article

Neyret M, Le Provost G, Boesing AL, Schneider FD, Baulechner D, Bergmann J, de Vries FT, Fiore-Donno AM, Geisen S, Goldmann K, Merges A, Saifutdinov RA, Simons NK, Tobias JA, Zaitsev AS, Gossner MM, Jung K, Kandeler E, Krauss J, Penone C, Schloter M, Schulz S, Staab M, Wolters V, Apostolakis A, Birkhofer K, Boch S, Boeddinghaus RS, Bolliger R, Bonkowski M, Buscot F, Dumack K, Fischer M, Gan HY, Heinze J, Hoelzel N, John K, Klaus VH, Kleinebecker T, Marhan S, Mueller J, Renner SC, Rillig MC, Schenk NV, Schoening I, Schrumpf M, Seibold S, Socher SA, Solly EF, Teuscher M, van Kleunen M, Wubet T, Manning Pet al., 2024,

A slow-fast trait continuum at the whole community level in relation to land-use intensification

, NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, Vol: 15

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Journal article

Drury JP, Clavel J, Tobias JA, Rolland J, Sheard C, Morlon Het al., 2024,

Limited ecological opportunity influences the tempo of morphological evolution in birds

, Current Biology, Vol: 34, Pages: 661-669.E4, ISSN: 0960-9822

According to classic models of lineage diversification and adaptive radiation, phenotypic evolution should accelerate in the context of ecological opportunity and slow down when niches become saturated.1,2 However, only weak support for these ideas has been found in nature, perhaps because most analyses make the biologically unrealistic assumption that clade members contribute equally to reducing ecological opportunity, even when they occur in different continents or specialize on different habitats and diets. To view this problem through a different lens, we adapted a new phylogenetic modeling approach that accounts for the fact that competition for ecological opportunity only occurs between species that coexist and share similar habitats and diets. Applying this method to trait data for nearly all extant species of landbirds,3 we find a widespread signature of decelerating trait evolution in lineages adapted to similar habitats or diets. The strength of this pattern was consistent across latitudes when comparing tropical and temperate assemblages. Our results provide little support for the idea that increased diversity and tighter packing of niches accentuates evolutionary slowdowns in the tropics and instead suggest that limited ecological opportunity can be an important factor determining the rate of morphological diversification at a global scale.

Journal article

Keeping T, Harrison SP, Prentice IC, 2024,

Modelling the daily probability of wildfire occurrence in the contiguous United States

, Environmental Research Letters, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1748-9326

The development of a high-quality wildfire occurrence model is an essential component in mapping present wildfire risk, and in projecting future wildfire dynamics with climate and land-use change. Here, we develop a new model for predicting the daily probability of wildfire occurrence at 0.1° (∼10 km) spatial resolution by adapting a generalised linear modelling (GLM) approach to include improvements to the variable selection procedure, identification of the range over which specific predictors are influential, and the minimisation of compression, applied in an ensemble of model runs. We develop and test the model using data from the contiguous United States. The ensemble performed well in predicting the mean geospatial patterns of fire occurrence, the interannual variability in the number of fires, and the regional variation in the seasonal cycle of wildfire. Model runs gave an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.85–0.88, indicating good predictive power. The ensemble of runs provides insight into the key predictors for wildfire occurrence in the contiguous United States. The methodology, though developed for the United States, is globally implementable.

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