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Journal articleTornimbene B, Leiva Rioja ZB, Aderinola O, et al., 2025,
Pathways to strengthening the epidemic intelligence workforce
, BMC Proceedings, Vol: 19The evolving landscape of public health surveillance demands a proficient and diverse workforce adept in data science and analysis. This report summarises discussions from the third session of the WHO Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence Innovation Forum, focusing on workforce readiness and technological advancements in epidemic intelligence. The forum emphasizes the necessity of multidisciplinary surveillance teams equipped with advanced data skills. Digital tools play a transformative role in data collection and analysis, enabling real-time tracking, integration, and interpretation of diverse data sources. However, effective surveillance relies on inclusive representation and skill development. Collaborative surveillance and interdisciplinary training programs were emphasized as critical pathways to enhance workforce capacity, decision-making, and equity in public health. Case studies from Nigeria, Korea, the UK, and Colombia showcase the role of digital tools and contextual expertise in addressing surveillance gaps. Sustained institutional support, cross-sector partnerships, and investments in data literacy and workforce development are pivotal for creating resilient and inclusive public health systems.
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Journal articleDe Nardi A, Marini G, Dorigatti I, et al., 2025,
Quantifying West Nile virus circulation in the avian host population in Northern Italy.
, Infect Dis Model, Vol: 10, Pages: 375-386West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most threatening mosquito-borne pathogens in Italy where hundreds of human cases were recorded during the last decade. Here, we estimated the WNV incidence in the avian population in the Emilia-Romagna region through a modelling framework which enabled us to eventually assess the fraction of birds that present anti-WNV antibodies at the end of each epidemiological season. We fitted an SIR model to ornithological data, consisting of 18,989 specimens belonging to Corvidae species collected between 2013 and 2022: every year from May to November birds are captured or shot and tested for WNV genome presence. We found that the incidence peaks between mid-July and late August, infected corvids seem on average 17% more likely to be captured with respect to susceptible ones and seroprevalence was estimated to be larger than other years at the end of 2018, consistent with the anomalous number of recorded human infections. Thanks to our modelling study we quantified WNV infection dynamics in the corvid community, which is still poorly investigated despite its importance for the virus circulation. To the best of our knowledge, this is among the first studies providing quantitative information on infection and immunity in the bird population, yielding new important insights on WNV transmission dynamics.
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Journal articleFu M, Lambert G, Cook A, et al., 2025,
Quality of life in patients with HBV infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis
, JHEP Reports, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2589-5559Background & AimsDespite nearly 250 million people worldwide estimated to have chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in HBV-related disease has not been well characterised. We aimed to summarise existing data on HBV-related HRQOL and quantify summary utility values by stage of disease.MethodsEmbase, Global Health, PubMed, and Web of Science were searched for articles investigating HBV HRQOL. Meta-analyses for utility scores were pooled by stage of disease and utility instrument; meta-regression was further adjusted for the effect of current health expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product (CHE/GDP) as a proxy of the importance of healthcare perceived by different countries.ResultsTwenty-two articles from nineteen studies, comprising 10,311 patients, were included. 74% of studies were performed in the Western Pacific Region, and 47% used the EuroQoL-5D-3L instrument. HRQOL was found to decrease with advancing stages of HBV-related disease. Meta-regression showed the following predicted mean utility scores for the different stages of chronic HBV infection: non-cirrhotic 0.842, compensated cirrhosis 0.820 (p=0.474 compared to non-cirrhotic), decompensated cirrhosis 0.722 (p=0.001) and hepatocellular carcinoma 0.749 (p=0.008). The type of tool used affected HRQOL and studies in populations where there was a higher CHE/GDP were associated with higher predicted utility values.ConclusionsChronic HBV infection impairs patients' HRQOL, even when there is no evidence of cirrhosis, and HRQOL is particularly impaired in the advanced stages of decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. These results have important implications for global hepatitis elimination efforts and are useful for economic analyses. However, further research is needed, particularly in high-burden, low-income settings where data is lacking.Impact and ImplicationsThis study's findings from 22 articles and 10,311 patients contribute to the
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Journal articlePons-Salort M, Blake IM, Grassly NC, 2025,
Duration of immunity after inactivated poliovirus vaccine: how many booster doses are needed?
, Clin Microbiol Infect, Vol: 31, Pages: 494-496 -
Journal articleDuchêne DA, Chowdhury A-A, Yang J, et al., 2025,
Drivers of avian genomic change revealed by evolutionary rate decomposition.
, NatureModern birds have diversified into a striking array of forms, behaviours and ecological roles. Analyses of molecular evolutionary rates can reveal the links between genomic and phenotypic change1-4, but disentangling the drivers of rate variation at the whole-genome scale has been difficult. Using comprehensive estimates of traits and evolutionary rates across a family-level phylogeny of birds5,6, we find that genome-wide mutation rates across lineages are predominantly explained by clutch size and generation length, whereas rate variation across genes is driven by the content of guanine and cytosine. Here, to find the subsets of genes and lineages that dominate evolutionary rate variation in birds, we estimated the influence of individual lineages on decomposed axes of gene-specific evolutionary rates. We find that most of the rate variation occurs along recent branches of the tree, associated with present-day families of birds. Additional tests on axes of rate variation show rapid changes in microchromosomes immediately after the Cretaceous-Palaeogene transition. These apparent pulses of evolution are consistent with major changes in the genetic machineries for meiosis, heart performance, and RNA splicing, surveillance and translation, and correlate with the ecological diversity reflected in increased tarsus length. Collectively, our analyses paint a nuanced picture of avian evolution, revealing that the ancestors of the most diverse lineages of birds underwent major genomic changes related to mutation, gene usage and niche expansion in the early Palaeogene period.
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Journal articleWhitaker M, Rodrigues S, Cooke G, et al., 2025,
How COVID-19 affected academic publishing: a three-year study of 17 million research papers
, International Journal of Epidemiology, ISSN: 0300-5771 -
Journal articleAdams L, Karachaliou Prasinou A, Trotter C, 2025,
Modelling the impact and cost effectiveness of universal varicella vaccination in England.
, Vaccine, Vol: 50INTRODUCTION: Two distinct diseases are attributable to the varicella zoster virus, varicella (chickenpox) and zoster (shingles). This study assesses the impact and cost-effectiveness of a childhood varicella vaccination program in England. METHODS: We use an age-structured dynamic transmission model and a health economic decision tree. The model incorporates recent data on varicella and zoster epidemiology, including the effects of exogenous boosting on zoster incidence. By simulating various vaccination strategies, including routine and catch-up programs, the study evaluates the potential reduction in varicella and zoster cases due to vaccination and the associated vaccine cost-effectiveness (from the NHS perspective). RESULTS: We find that a two-dose varicella vaccination program could significantly reduce varicella incidence, potentially achieving near-elimination if high coverage rates are maintained. However, the model also predicts a temporary increase in zoster incidence due to reduced natural boosting from varicella exposure; this is partly mitigated by the current zoster vaccination program and the effect is much less substantial than previously estimated. Cost-effectiveness analyses reveal that all vaccination strategies modelled are cost-effective at typical thresholds, with the routine vaccination scenario being the most economically advantageous. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that vaccine price and varicella treatment costs are the primary drivers of cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSION: The study supports the introduction of a childhood varicella vaccination program in England, which offers substantial health benefits and is highly likely to be cost-effective.
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Journal articleStopard I, Sanou A, Suh E, et al., 2025,
Modelling the effects of diurnal temperature variation on malaria infection dynamics in mosquitoes
, Communications Biology, ISSN: 2399-3642 -
Journal articleMeier-Scherling CPG, Watson OJ, Asua V, et al., 2025,
Selection of Plasmodium falciparum kelch13 mutations in Uganda in comparison with southeast Asia: a modelling study.
, Lancet MicrobeBACKGROUND: Artemisinin partial resistance, mediated by mutations in the Plasmodium falciparum kelch13 gene (k13), rapidly spread in southeast Asia, undermining the antimalarial effectiveness of artemisinin-based combination therapies. k13 mutations have also arisen in Africa, but their rates of increase are not well characterised. We aimed to quantify the selection of k13 mutations in Africa and compare the selection with that in southeast Asia. METHODS: In this modelling study, we investigated k13 mutation allele frequency at 16 sites in Uganda (2016-22) and five sites in southeast Asia (in Cambodia, Thailand, and Viet Nam; 2003-14). The Ugandan data were obtained from annual clinical surveillance studies and the southeast Asian data were obtained from the MalariaGEN Pf7 dataset. We investigated five validated and candidate k13 mutations: Pro441Leu, Cys469Phe, Cys469Tyr, Arg561His, and Ala675Val. We calculated annual selection coefficients using Bayesian mixed-effect linear models. We then tested whether the k13 mutation allele frequency in southeast Asia could have been forecast accurately using up to the first 5 years of available data and forecast future k13 mutation allele frequency in Uganda. FINDINGS: We used data from 7564 samples from Uganda and 6568 samples from southeast Asia. The annual selection coefficient of evaluable k13 mutations (Pro441Leu, Cys469Phe/Tyr, Arg561His, and Ala675Val) across all sites was estimated at 0·381 (95% credible interval 0·298 to 0·472) per year, a 38% increase in relative allele frequency. Selection coefficients across Uganda were 0·494 (-0·462 to 1·410) for Pro441Leu, 0·324 (-0·629 to 1·150) for Cys469Phe, 0·383 (0·207 to 0·591) for Cys469Tyr, and 0·237 (0·087 to 0·403) for Ala675Val. In southeast Asia, the selection coefficients were 0·627 (-0·088 to 1
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Journal articleRawson TM, Al-Hassan M, Brzeska-Trafny I, et al., 2025,
Comment on: Resistance profiles of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales in a large centre in England: are we already losing cefiderocol?
, J Antimicrob Chemother
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