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Journal articleSmith DRM, Turner J, Fahr P, et al., 2024,
Health and economic impacts of Lassa vaccination campaigns in West Africa
, NATURE MEDICINE, Vol: 30, ISSN: 1078-8956 -
Journal articleKwok KO, Huynh T, Wei WI, et al., 2024,
Utilizing large language models in infectious disease transmission modelling for public health preparedness
, COMPUTATIONAL AND STRUCTURAL BIOTECHNOLOGY JOURNAL, Vol: 23, Pages: 3254-3257, ISSN: 2001-0370 -
Journal articleWangdi K, Unwin HJT, Penjor K, et al., 2024,
Estimating the impact of imported malaria on local transmission in a near elimination setting: a case study from Bhutan
, LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH - SOUTHEAST ASIA, Vol: 31, ISSN: 2772-3682 -
Journal articleMandal S, Bhatia V, Bhargava A, et al., 2024,
The potential impact on tuberculosis of interventions to reduce undernutrition in the WHO South-East Asian Region: a modelling analysis
, The Lancet Regional Health - Southeast Asia, Vol: 31, ISSN: 2772-3682BackgroundUndernutrition is a major risk factor for TB incidence in the WHO South-East (SE) Asia Region. We examined the potential impact of addressing undernutrition as a preventive measure, for reducing TB burden in region.MethodsWe developed a deterministic, compartmental mathematical model, capturing undernutrition and its associated excess risk of TB, amongst countries in the Region. We simulated two types of interventions: (i) nutritional rehabilitation amongst all close contacts of TB patients, and (ii) an illustrative, population-wide scenario where 30% of people with undernutrition would be nutritionally rehabilitated each year. We also simulated this impact with additional measures to improve the TB care cascade.FindingsThe impact of nutritional interventions varies by country. For example, in India nutritional rehabilitation of 30% of undernourished population each year would avert 15.9% (95% Uncertainty Intervals (UI) 11.8–21.3) of cumulative incidence between 2023 and 2030, contrasting with 4.8% (95% UI 2.9–9.5) for Bhutan, which has only 10.9% prevalence of undernutrition. Reductions in cumulative mortality range from 11.6% (95% UI 8.2–17.1) for Bhutan, to 26.0% (95% UI 22.4–30.8) for India. Comparable incremental reductions in TB burden arise when combined with measures to improve the TB care cascade. Overall, nutritional interventions in the general population would increase incidence reductions by 2–3 fold, and mortality reductions by 5–6 fold, relative to targeting only contacts.InterpretationNutritional interventions could cause substantial reductions in TB burden in the Region. Their health benefits extend well beyond TB, underlining their importance for public health.FundingNone.
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Journal articleCarter A, et al, 2024,
Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990–2021, and forecasts to 2050, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
, The Lancet HIV, Vol: 11, Pages: e807-e822, ISSN: 2352-3018BackgroundAs set out in Sustainable Development Goal 3.3, the target date for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat is 2030. Therefore, there is a crucial need to evaluate current epidemiological trends and monitor global progress towards HIV incidence and mortality reduction goals. In this analysis, we assess the current burden of HIV in 204 countries and territories and forecast HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality up to 2050 to allow countries to plan for a sustained response with an increasing number of people living with HIV globally.MethodsWe used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 analytical framework to compute age-sex-specific HIV mortality, incidence, and prevalence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990–2021). We aimed to analyse all available data sources, including data on the provision of HIV programmes reported to UNAIDS, published literature on mortality among people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified by a systematic review, household surveys, sentinel surveillance antenatal care clinic data, vital registration data, and country-level case report data. We calibrated a mechanistic simulation of HIV infection and natural history to available data to estimate HIV burden from 1990 to 2021 and generated forecasts to 2050 through projection of all simulation inputs into the future. Historical outcomes (1990–2021) were simulated at the 1000-draw level to support propagation of uncertainty and reporting of uncertainty intervals (UIs). Our approach to forecasting utilised the transmission rate as the basis for projection, along with new rate-of-change projections of ART coverage. Additionally, we introduced two new metrics to our reporting: prevalence of unsuppressed viraemia (PUV), which represents the proportion of the population without a suppressed level of HIV (viral load <1000 copies per mL), and period lifetime probability of HIV acquisition, which quantifies the
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Journal articlePeak CM, Lyons H, Voorman A, et al., 2024,
Monitoring the risk of type-2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus emergence during roll-out of type-2 novel oral polio vaccine
, Vaccines, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2076-393XBackground/Objectives: Although wild poliovirus type 2 has been eradicated, the prolonged transmission of the live- attenuated virus contained in the type-2 oral polio vaccine (OPV2) in under-immunized populations has led to the emergence of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2). The novel OPV2 (nOPV2) was designed to be more genetically stable and reduce the chance of cVDPV2 emergence while retaining comparable immunogenicity to the Sabin monovalent OPV2 (mOPV2). This study aimed to estimate the relative reduction in the emergence risk due to the use of nOPV2 instead of mOPV2. Methods: Data on OPV2 vaccination campaigns from May 2016 to 1 August 2024 were analyzed to estimate type-2 OPV-induced immunity in children under 5 years of age. Poliovirus surveillance data were used to estimate seeding dates and classify cVDPV2 emergences as mOPV2- or nOPV2-derived. The expected number of emergences if mOPV2 was used instead of nOPV2 was estimated, accounting for the timing and volume of nOPV2 doses, the known risk factors for emergence from mOPV2, and censoring due to the incomplete observation period for more recent nOPV2 doses. Results: As of 1 August 2024, over 98% of the approximately 1.19 billion nOPV2 doses administered globally were in Africa. We estimate that approximately 76 (95% confidence interval 69–85) index isolates of cVDPV2 emergences would be expected to be detected by 1 August 2024 if mOPV2 had been used instead of nOPV2 in Africa. The 18 observed nOPV2-derived emergences represent a 76% (74–79%) lower risk of emergence by nOPV2 than mOPV2 in Africa. The crude global analysis produced similar results. Key limitations include the incomplete understanding of the drivers of heterogeneity in emergence risk across geographies and variance in the per-dose risk of emergence may be incompletely captured using known risk factors. Conclusions: These results are consistent with the accumulating clinical and field evidence showing the en
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Journal articleHuong NHT, Toan ND, Thien TB, et al., 2024,
In children, N-Methyl-D-Aspartate receptor antibody encephalitis incidence exceeds that of Japanese encephalitis in Vietnam
, Open Forum Infectious Diseases, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2328-8957BackgroundThe recognition of autoimmune causes of encephalitis has led to epidemiological shifts in the worldwide characteristics. N-Methyl-D-Aspartate receptor antibody encephalitis leads to well-established complex neuropsychiatric manifestations. In low- and middle-income countries, including Vietnam, its relative incidence, especially in children, is unknown and most neurologists currently consider infectious encephalitis prior to autoimmune etiologies.MethodsThe study was prospectively conducted at Children’s Hospital 1 in Ho Chi Minh City between March 2020 and December 2022. Any child admitted to the Department of Infectious Diseases and Neurology fulfilling the case definition of encephalitis, was eligible to participate. Cerebrospinal fluid samples were collected alongside meta-clinical data for analysis.ResultsWe recruited 164 children with a clinical diagnosis of encephalitis. Etiologies were determined as N-Methyl-D-Aspartate receptor antibody encephalitis in 23/164 cases (14.0%), Japanese Encephalitis Virus in 14/164 (8.5%) and Herpes Simplex Virus in 4/164 (2.4%). Clinical categorizations suggested idiopathic viral encephalitis in another 71 (43.3%), and autoimmune encephalitis of unknown origin in the remaining 52. Factors including demographics, specific clinical features, cerebrospinal fluid and electroencephalogram findings, and length of hospital stay were significantly different between N-Methyl-D-Aspartate receptor antibody encephalitis and Japanese encephalitis.ConclusionsAt a tertiary children’s hospital in Vietnam, the prevalence of N-Methyl-D-Aspartate receptor antibody encephalitis exceeds that of Japanese encephalitis, the most common infectious encephalitis cause in Southeast Asia. N-Methyl-D-Aspartate receptor antibody encephalitis is associated with long hospital stay and poor outcomes. These findings should change paediatric diagnostics, to earlier consider autoimmune treatments in this clinical setting.
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Journal articleMills C, Donnelly CA, 2024,
Climate-based modelling and forecasting of dengue in three endemic departments of Peru
, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1935-2735 -
Journal articleCordeiro AA, Moorhouse L, Dadirai T, et al., 2024,
Intimate partner violence, behaviours associated with risk of HIV acquisition and condom use in married women in Manicaland, East Zimbabwe: An HIV prevention cascade analysis (vol 24, 592, 2024)
, BMC WOMENS HEALTH, Vol: 24 -
Journal articleScott TA, Baker KS, Trotter C, et al., 2024,
Shigella sonnei: epidemiology, evolution, pathogenesis, resistance and host interactions.
, Nat Rev MicrobiolShigella sonnei is a major cause of diarrhoea globally and is increasing in prevalence relative to other Shigella because of multiple demographic and environmental influences. This single-serotype species has traditionally received less attention in comparison to Shigella flexneri and Shigella dysenteriae, which were more common in low-income countries and more tractable in the laboratory. In recent years, we have learned that Shigella are highly complex and highly susceptible to environmental change, as exemplified by epidemiological trends and increasing relevance of S. sonnei. Ultimately, methods, tools and data generated from decades of detailed research into S. flexneri have been used to gain new insights into the epidemiology, microbiology and pathogenesis of S. sonnei. In parallel, widespread adoption of genomic surveillance has yielded insights into antimicrobial resistance, evolution and organism transmission. In this Review, we provide an overview of current knowledge of S. sonnei, highlighting recent insights into this globally disseminated antimicrobial-resistant pathogen and assessing how novel data may impact future vaccine development and implementation.
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