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• Journal article
  Howard SC, Donnelly CA, 2000,

  Estimation of a time-varying force of infection and basic reproduction number with application to an outbreak of classical swine fever.

  , J Epidemiol Biostat, Vol: 5, Pages: 161-168, ISSN: 1359-5229

  BACKGROUND: A method was developed for stochastically reconstructing the pattern of infection from observed epidemic data. This allowed for estimation of a time-dependent force of infection, or transmission rate, during an epidemic. METHODS: A discrete-time mechanistic model was used to describe the spread of infection and a stochastic procedure, which utilised the latent and infectious period distributions, was used to reconstruct the dates of infection, becoming infectious and removal from the given data. The four equations describing the model were then solved to obtain least squares estimates of the transmission rate and the basic reproduction number (R0) throughout the epidemic. This process was repeated in order to assess the variability in these key epidemiological parameters. The stochastic epidemic reconstruction procedure was developed to account for changes in the distribution of the survival period over the course of the epidemic and adapted for application to epidemic data where not all infected individuals have yet been observed as cases. RESULTS: The method was applied to a set of epidemic data from an outbreak of classical swine fever in Pakistan. Constant and time-varying estimates of the transmission rate were derived and compared. There was some evidence to suggest that the force of infection varied over time. DISCUSSION: The method described can be applied to data from epidemics where observations are incomplete. The confidence limits obtained for the estimated force of infection provide a means of assessing the evidence for time variation in this parameter.

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• Journal article
  Gupta S, Anderson RM, 1999,

  Population structure of pathogens: The role of immune selection

  , PARASITOLOGY TODAY, Vol: 15, Pages: 497-501, ISSN: 0169-4758
  • Author Web Link
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  • Citations: 75
• Journal article
  Tuyttens FAM, Macdonald DW, Delahay R, Rogers LM, Mallinson RJ, Donnelly CA, Newman Cet al., 1999,

  Differences in trappability of European badgers <i>Meles meles</i> in three populations in England

  , JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Vol: 36, Pages: 1051-1062, ISSN: 0021-8901
  • Author Web Link
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  • Citations: 81
• Journal article
  James CS, Eaton JW, Hardwick K, 1999,

  Competition between three submerged macrophytes, <i>Elodea canadensis</i> Michx, <i>Elodea nuttallii</i> (Planch.) St John and <i>Lagarosiphon major</i> (Ridl.) moss

  , HYDROBIOLOGIA, Vol: 415, Pages: 35-40, ISSN: 0018-8158
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• Journal article
  Brisson M, Boily MC, Mâsse BR, Adrien A, Léaune Vet al., 1999,

  Highlights of the sexual activity of the heterosexual population in the province of Quebec

  , SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS, Vol: 75, Pages: 296-299, ISSN: 1368-4973
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  • Citations: 14
• Conference paper
  Donnelly CA, MaWhinney S, Anderson RM, 1999,

  A review of the BSE epidemic in British cattle

  , 89th Annual Meeting of the American-Phytopathological-Society, Publisher: BLACKWELL PUBLISHING INC, Pages: 164-173, ISSN: 1076-2825
  • Author Web Link
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  • Citations: 7
• Journal article
  Desai KN, Boily MC, Masse BR, Alary M, Anderson RMet al., 1999,

  Simulation studies of phase III clinical trials to test the efficacy of a candidate HIV-1 vaccine

  , EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, Vol: 123, Pages: 65-88, ISSN: 0950-2688
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  • Citations: 14
• Journal article
  Gregson S, Zhuwau T, Anderson RM, Chandiwana SKet al., 1999,

  Apostles and Zionists: The influence of religion on demographic change in rural Zimbabwe

  , POPULATION STUDIES-A JOURNAL OF DEMOGRAPHY, Vol: 53, Pages: 179-193, ISSN: 0032-4728
  • Author Web Link
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  • Citations: 55
• Journal article
  Austin DJ, Bonten MJM, Weinstein RA, Slaughter S, Anderson RMet al., 1999,

  Vancomycin-resistant enterococci in intensive-care hospital settings: Transmission dynamics, persistence, and the impact of infection control programs

  , PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 96, Pages: 6908-6913, ISSN: 0027-8424
  • Author Web Link
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  • Citations: 280
• Journal article
  White NJ, Nosten F, Looareesuwan S, Watkins WM, Marsh K, Snow RW, Kokwaro G, Ouma J, Hien TT, Molyneux ME, Taylor TE, Newbold CI, Ruebush TK, Danis M, Greenwood BM, Anderson RM, Olliaro Pet al., 1999,

  Averting a malaria disaster

  , LANCET, Vol: 353, Pages: 1965-1967, ISSN: 0140-6736
  • Author Web Link
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  • Citations: 441

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