BibTex format
@inproceedings{Jonsson:2008,
author = {Jonsson, T and Pinson, P and Madsen, H},
pages = {2658--2668},
title = {The effect ofwind power forecasts on electricity prices in Denmark},
year = {2008}
}
Citation
RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)
TY - CPAPER
AB - For participants in deregulated energy markets as Nord Pool and EEX, forecasting of the electricity prices can be just as important as load and production forecasts when it comes to controlling production and consumption. Furthermore, price forecasts are paramount when it comes to designing bidding strategies. It is a known fact that electricity prices on the Nord Pool spot market are, in the long run, mainly influenced by the level of water in the reservoirs of the Norwegian and Swedish hydropower plants. However, changes in the water level happen slowly and are therefore not a matter of great relevance when 1 to 36 hour forecasts are made for the prices on Nord Pool spot market. In this paper, the effects of forecasted wind power production on the spot prices in Nord Pool's Western Danish price area (DK-1) are investigated. Moreover, ways of including the forecasted wind power production in a model for the spot price in DK-1 are explored. It turns out that forecasted wind power production has substantial effects on the spot price and even more effects can be found with small modifications. By using conditional parametric models and by converting the forecasted production into a forecasted penetration, a very satisfying degree of explanation can be achieved in forecasting models for the spot prices in DK-1. Given the result of this paper, it is very likely that the same approach to use wind power predictions, will give good results when forecasting the prices on other electricity pools. It is expected that the approach will be highly beneficial both for pools where wind power penetration is relatively high, and for markets with other characteristics, such as regulation markets.
AU - Jonsson,T
AU - Pinson,P
AU - Madsen,H
EP - 2668
PY - 2008///
SP - 2658
TI - The effect ofwind power forecasts on electricity prices in Denmark
ER -
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