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@article{Lerch:2026:10.1111/eva.70322,
author = {Lerch, A and Small, ST and Hui, TJ and Bascuñán, P and Dotson, EM and Lukindu, M and Birungi, K and Kayondo, JK and Burt, A and Perkins, TA and Besansky, NJ},
doi = {10.1111/eva.70322},
journal = {Evolutionary Applications},
title = {Estimation of Adult Census Size From CloseKin Dyads in the Malaria Mosquito <i>Anopheles gambiae</i>},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/eva.70322},
volume = {19},
year = {2026}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - <jats:title>ABSTRACT</jats:title> <jats:p> Accurate estimates of adult mosquito abundance are central to the design and evaluation of vector control strategies, yet they are difficult to obtain from natural populations. Conventional markrecapture methods for estimating adult mosquito census size pose logistical and other challenges. A recently developed closekin markrecapture (CKMR) approach is a promising alternative. However, application of CKMR has been largely confined to longlived vertebrates. Validation on empirical data from shortlived, highly fecund insects is lacking. Here, we apply CKMR to a natural population of <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case"> <jats:italic>Anopheles gambiae</jats:italic> </jats:styled-content> , the primary African malaria mosquito, sampled from a small island in Lake Victoria, Uganda. Using a highdiversity amplicon panel of genomewide markers, we genotyped 714 adult mosquitoes collected over a 20day period. We classified pairs to closekin categories by implementing probabilistic latentkinship estimation rather than using a deterministic thresholdbased framework. We observe numerous fullsibling pairs but no parentoffspring pairs, a pattern consistent with extreme variance in reproductive success owing to frequent failure of mosquito egg clutches to produce adults. Building on existing CKMR theory tailored to mosquito life history, we fit an extended model that included the possibility of clutch failure. By incorporating probabilities of both parentoffspring and fullsibling relationships, we estimate an adult female census size of 26,887 (95% credible interval: 6979–146,011), and a clutch failure probability of 97.6% (CrI: 91.3%–99.6%). We use these estimates to calculate the predicted variance in reproductive success and effective populatio
AU - Lerch,A
AU - Small,ST
AU - Hui,TJ
AU - Bascuñán,P
AU - Dotson,EM
AU - Lukindu,M
AU - Birungi,K
AU - Kayondo,JK
AU - Burt,A
AU - Perkins,TA
AU - Besansky,NJ
DO - 10.1111/eva.70322
PY - 2026///
SN - 1752-4571
TI - Estimation of Adult Census Size From CloseKin Dyads in the Malaria Mosquito <i>Anopheles gambiae</i>
T2 - Evolutionary Applications
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/eva.70322
UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.70322
VL - 19
ER -
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