In this section
@article{Burton:2026:aob/mcag041,
author = {Burton, GP and Botey, HM and Ceci, P and Chater, C and Gutaker, RM and Jackson, AC and Ryan, P and Seal, CE and Turnbull, CGN and Vorontsova, MS and Mattana, E and Ulian, T},
doi = {aob/mcag041},
journal = {Annals of Botany},
title = {Impacts of climate change on fonio millet: seed germination ecology and suitability modelling of an indigenous West African cereal},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcag041},
year = {2026}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Background and Aims</jats:title> <jats:p>Seed germination is highly temperature-sensitive, and increasing global temperatures due to climate change are likely to have a strong effect on agriculture. Improved utilisation of indigenous, arid-resilient crops such as fonio (Digitaria exilis) are a commonly proposed solution to improving food security in West Africa. This study develops knowledge of fonio germination requirements and relates them to future predicted climate conditions.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Methods</jats:title> <jats:p>We use an interdisciplinary methodology, integrating extensive laboratory-based seed germination experiments under a range of temperatures, with niche suitability and future climate modelling, to investigate how cultivation of fonio may be impacted by climate change.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Key Results</jats:title> <jats:p>By analysing 37 seed accessions from Guinea, Togo, Mali and Burkina Faso, we estimated the ceiling temperature for germination of this species to be 43°C (s.d. = ±1.6), with an optimum temperature of 36°C (s.d. = ±2.2) – as also noted from phenotypic observation of seedlings. There is no obvious difference in response by accessions originating from either hotter or cooler climates. By comparing these temperature thresholds to future climate predictions, tested alongside suitability modelling, we estimate a decline of 7.9–10.45% in the future suitable area for fonio cultivation, depending on the prediction method, especially affecting Senegal, Mali and Burkina Faso. Newly suitable area i
AU - Burton,GP
AU - Botey,HM
AU - Ceci,P
AU - Chater,C
AU - Gutaker,RM
AU - Jackson,AC
AU - Ryan,P
AU - Seal,CE
AU - Turnbull,CGN
AU - Vorontsova,MS
AU - Mattana,E
AU - Ulian,T
DO - aob/mcag041
PY - 2026///
TI - Impacts of climate change on fonio millet: seed germination ecology and suitability modelling of an indigenous West African cereal
T2 - Annals of Botany
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcag041
UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcag041
ER -
Interested in studying a PhD at the Department of Life Sciences? Find out more about postgraduate research opportunties.