Industry

Projected growing demands for goods and stricter calls for greenhouse gas emissions cuts are challenging the development of industries worldwide. The industrial sector energy demand is expected to increase to up to 31% of the total final consumption by 2040 on a global scale. This upward trend will be more relevant in developing countries, particularly those characterised by rapid economic growth like China [1].

Historically, the industrial sector has shown progress in energy efficiency and waste reduction in order to produce cheaper goods. Continuing this trend, electrification, increased efficiency and possibly hydrogen may prove suitable options [2]. Stringent regulations on carbon could urge this sector to pursue technological change at an unprecedented rate, prioritising RD&D towards zero or even negative emissions over this century.

Read the complete Industry Sector Module Non-Technical Overview

References 

[1] Key world energy statistics 2016. International Energy Agency, 2016.
[2] World Energy Outlook 2016. International Energy Agency, 2016.

Buildings

Buildings account for almost a third of final energy consumption globally and are an equally important source of CO2 emissions [1].

There are significant opportunities and challenges to decarbonise this sector. For example, heating end-uses are highly reliant on fossil fuels while cooling demand is growing rapidly both in OECD and in emerging countries with highly carbon-intensive electricity systems (e.g. India and China).

Recent major advances in building design, know-how, technology, and policy have made it possible for global building energy use and emissions to decline significantly [2]. MUSE is well equipped to model transitions in this sector, which cannot be well-characterised by economically rational decision making.

Read the complete Building Sector Module Non-Technical Overview

References

[1] IEA, Technology Roadmap Energy-efficient Buildings: Heating and Cooling Equipment, 2011.
[2] The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) Toward a Sustainable Future, Chapter 10 : Energy End-Use: Buildings, 2016.

Agriculture

The agriculture sector is responsible for less than 10% of the total final energy [1]. However, if the indirect energy use, required for agrochemical production, input manufacturing, food processing, marketing and transport is included, this figure increases to 30%. Furthermore, the agriculture sector (including deforestation for agriculture expansion) is roughly responsible of 22% of worldwide emissions [2]. Apart from CO2 emissions, attributed to direct use of fossil fuels and change in land use (e.g. deforestation), NO2 emissions released from the use of agrochemicals and CH4 emissions due to ruminant livestock, manures and slurries, represent the biggest source of GHG emissions in the sector.

In order to achieve decarbonisation goals, emissions from food and bioenergy demand growth will need to be offset by technological change. It is also a challenging sector in that changes in prices can easily impact land use allocation in the sector, so care must be taken to avoid impact on, for example, food prices [3]. Characterisation of decision making in this sector is therefore particularly important, with insights gained where macroeconomic models may fail.

Read the complete Agriculture Sector Module Non-Technical Overview

References

[1] Environment and Natural Resources Working Paper No. 4, FAO, 2000.
[2] FAO. Energy-smart food for people and climate. Issue paper. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN. 2011.
[3] Wise, M. et al., Implications of limiting CO2 concentrations for land use and energy, Science, 2009.

Transport

The transport sector is responsible for about 23% of worldwide CO2 emissions. As the energy service demand in transport is expected to dramatically increase in the next years, it is of crucial importance to cut the associated emissions in order to meet global decarbonisation targets [1].

In this transition towards a more sustainable mobility, new technologies will play a major role. Hydrogen, electricity and biofuels have often been acknowledged as instrumental to this change.

However, the deployment of these fuels and the associated technologies may only be feasible if careful R&D plans and technology development strategies are in place. It is also noteworthy that technology deployment will have social effects on the traffic volume and modal split.

Read the complete Transport Sector Module Non-Technical Overview

References

[1] Transport, energy and CO2. Moving toward sustainability. International Energy Agency, 2009.