BibTex format
@article{Hon:2023:10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.001,
author = {Hon, KK and Ballard, R and Blake, E and Bond, S and Gile, R and Halperin, D and Helms, C and Lam, H and Lyu, X and Mohapatra, M and Sharma, M and Shimokobe, A and Toumi, R and Won, S},
doi = {10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.001},
journal = {Tropical Cyclone Research and Review},
pages = {323--340},
title = {Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.001},
volume = {12},
year = {2023}
}
RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)
TY - JOUR
AB - Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis prediction is a major scientific challenge to the TC operation and research community. This report surveys the current status of TC genesis forecasts by a number of major operational centers covering the key ocean basins across both hemispheres. Since IWTC-9, we see an emergence of probabilistic TC genesis forecast products by operational centers, typically supported by the statistical processing of a combination of ensemble prediction and satellite analysis, covering time periods of couple of days to weeks ahead. The prevalence of multi-center grand ensemble approach highlights the uncertainties involved and the forecast challenges in quantitative genesis prediction. While operational practice might differ across agencies, verification efforts generally report a steady or slightly improving skill level in terms of reliability, which likely results from the continual improvement in global numerical weather prediction capability.
AU - Hon,KK
AU - Ballard,R
AU - Blake,E
AU - Bond,S
AU - Gile,R
AU - Halperin,D
AU - Helms,C
AU - Lam,H
AU - Lyu,X
AU - Mohapatra,M
AU - Sharma,M
AU - Shimokobe,A
AU - Toumi,R
AU - Won,S
DO - 10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.001
EP - 340
PY - 2023///
SN - 2225-6032
SP - 323
TI - Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast
T2 - Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.001
UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S222560322300053X?via%3Dihub
VL - 12
ER -