In this section
@article{Widana:2025:10.1038/s41612-025-01170-1,
author = {Widana, Arachchige EL and Zhou, W and Toumi, R and Wang, X},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-025-01170-1},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
title = {Projected tropical cyclone genesis and seasonality changes in the Northern Hemisphere under a warming climate},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01170-1},
volume = {8},
year = {2025}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - The impact of global warming on future tropical cyclone (TC) development is substantial; however, the predictability of TC genesis remains uncertain. In this study, we investigate projected changes in TC genesis on a regional scale over the North Atlantic (NA) and western North Pacific (WNP) ocean basins, focusing on TC seasonality through bias-corrected model simulations. Our study unveils a weakening of peak TC genesis (August-October; ASO) at lower latitudes under a high-emission scenario, along with a strengthening of TC peak (July-September; JAS) at higher latitudes. Most importantly, positive vertical velocity (ω) in the mid-troposphere (500 hPa) plays a dominant role in weakening the TC peak in the tropics, while weak vertical wind shear (VWS) in the subtropics facilitates TC development. Our study elucidates the impact of climate change on the regional environment and the ensuing possible changes in TC seasonality, offering essential insights into future projected TC genesis in the Northern Hemisphere.
AU - Widana,Arachchige EL
AU - Zhou,W
AU - Toumi,R
AU - Wang,X
DO - 10.1038/s41612-025-01170-1
PY - 2025///
SN - 2397-3722
TI - Projected tropical cyclone genesis and seasonality changes in the Northern Hemisphere under a warming climate
T2 - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01170-1
UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01170-1
VL - 8
ER -
Climate Science
Earth and Life Sciences
Energy and Low-Carbon Futures
Resources and Pollution
Economics and Finance
Health
View all publications and browse by year
Briefing papers and Briefing notes
Grantham Institute Outlooks
Evidence & submission papers
Infographics
Institute reports and analytics notes
Grantham notes
Collaborative publications
Discussion papers
Institute event overviews
Working papers