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  • Report
    Levey S, Gilbert A, Amer H, Petersen K, Jennings N, Butler Cet al., 2020,

    Grantham Institute Outlook 2020-2021

    , Grantham Institute Outlook 2020-2021, www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London

    The Grantham Institute Outlook magazine provides an overview of the climate and environmental research underway at Imperial College London, encompassing both recent achievements and future plans.
  • Report
    Reynard N, Ellison E, Wilson A, Williamson P, O-Niles J, Ransome E, Mashayekhi Aet al., 2020,

    The contribution of coastal blue carbon ecosystems to climate change mitigation and adaptation

    , The contribution of coastal blue carbon ecosystems to climate change mitigation and adaptation, www.imperial.ac.uk/Grantham, Publisher: The Grantham Institute, BP34

    This briefing paper explores the potential for marine coastal ecosystems that store carbon, blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs), to help both limit climate change and adapt to the impacts of a changing climate. It also considers the range of benefits BCEs bring to coastal communities, and makes recommendations for policy approaches.
  • Journal article
    Parks RM, Bennett JE, Tamura-Wicks H, Kontis V, Toumi R, Danaei G, Ezzati Met al., 2020,

    Reply to: Concerns over calculating injury-related deaths associated with temperature

    , NATURE MEDICINE, Vol: 26, ISSN: 1078-8956
  • Journal article
    Mesa CA, Rao RR, Francas L, Corby S, Durrant JRet al., 2020,

    Reply to: Questioning the rate law in the analysis of water oxidation catalysis on haematite photoanodes

    , NATURE CHEMISTRY, Vol: 12, Pages: 1099-+, ISSN: 1755-4330
    • Cite
    • Citations: 15
  • Conference paper
    Oluleye O, Teng Y, 2020,

    A Comparative Assessment of Policies to Support Heat Decarbonisation in an Industrial Site Utility System

    , 12th International Conference on Applied Energy
  • Journal article
    Casas CQ, Arcucci R, Wu P, Pain C, Guo Y-Ket al., 2020,

    A Reduced Order Deep Data Assimilation model

    , PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA, Vol: 412, ISSN: 0167-2789
  • Journal article
    Xu G, Yu D, Zheng D, Wang S, Xue W, Cao XE, Zeng H, Xiao X, Ge M, Lee W-K, Zhu Met al., 2020,

    Fast Heat Transport Inside Lithium-Sulfur Batteries Promotes Their Safety and Electrochemical Performance.

    , iScience, Vol: 23

    Lithium-sulfur batteries are paid much attention owing to their high specific capacity and energy density. However, their practical applications are impeded by poor electrochemical performance due to the dissolved polysulfides. The concentration of soluble polysulfides has a linear relationship with the internal heat generation. The issue of heat transport inside lithium-sulfur batteries is often overlooked. Here, we designed a functional separator that not only had a high thermal conductivity of 0.65 W m-1 K-1 but also alleviated the diffusion of dissolved active materials to the lithium anode, improving the electrochemical performance and safety issue. Lithium-sulfur batteries with the functional separator have a specific capacity of 1,126.4 mAh g-1 at 0.2 C, and the specific capacity can be remained up to 893.5 mAh g-1 after 100 cycles. Pouch Cells with high sulfur loading also showed a good electrochemical performance under a lean electrolyte condition of electrolyte/sulfur (E/S) = 3 μL mg-1.
  • Report
    Hine R, 2020,

    Tools to encourage low-carbon travel

    , Tools to encourage low-carbon travel, http://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Discussion Paper 8

    This discussion paper assesses how different travel incentive schemes affect consumer travel choices, and explores how policymakers and the private sector can support innovative low-carbon incentives to help drive down emissions in the transport sector.
  • Journal article
    Kawaguchi T, Rao RR, Lunger JR, Liu Y, Walko D, Karapetrova EA, Komanicky V, Shao-Horn Y, You Het al., 2020,

    Stern layers on RuO<sub>2</sub> (100) and (110) in electrolyte: Surface X-ray scattering studies

    , JOURNAL OF ELECTROANALYTICAL CHEMISTRY, Vol: 875, ISSN: 1572-6657
  • Journal article
    Sparks N, Toumi R, 2020,

    Pacific subsurface ocean temperature as a long-rangepredictor of South China tropical cyclone landfall

    , Communications Earth & Environment, Vol: 1, ISSN: 2662-4435

    Seasonal forecasts of the tropical cyclones which frequently make landfall along the densely populated South China coast are highly desirable. Here, we analyse observations of landfalling tropical cyclones in South China and of subsurface ocean temperatures in the Pacific warm pool region, and identify the possibility of forecasts of South China tropical cyclone landfall a year ahead. Specifically, we define a subsurface temperature index, subNiño4, and build a predictive model based on subNiño4 anomalies with a robust double cross-validated forecast skill against climatology of 23%, similar in skill to existing forecasts issued much later in the spring. We suggest that subNiño4 ocean temperatures precede the surface El Niño/Southern Oscillation state by about 12 months, and that the zonal shifts in atmospheric heating then change mid-level winds to steer tropical cyclones towards landfall in South China. We note that regional subsurface ocean temperature anomalies may permit atmospheric predictions in other locations at a longer range than is currently thought possible.
  • Journal article
    Jennings N, Rao M, 2020,

    Towards a carbon neutral NHS

    , BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 371, ISSN: 0959-535X
  • Report
    Carmichael R, Rhodes A, Hanna R, Gross Ret al., 2020,

    Smart and flexible electric heat: an energy futures lab briefing paper

    , Smart and Flexible Electric Heat: An Energy Futures Lab Briefing Paper

    Heating in residential, commercial and industrial settings makes up almost half of final energy consumption in the UK, more than the energy consumed for electricity or transport. The electrification of heat is anticipated to play a major role for the UK’s efforts to reduce emissions to net-zero by 2050. Heating demand is highly variable between seasons and time of day. To take maximum advantage of low-carbon generation, and to respect the limitations of the distribution grid, electricity loads for heating will need to be flexible. This Briefing Paper explores the potential for smart flexible low-carbon electric heating in UK homes and the challenges for consumer engagement. This paper considers four key elements for enabling smart, flexible and cost- effective electric heating in UK homes: low-carbon heating systems; cost-reflective electricity pricing; thermally efficient buildings; and smart storage devices.
  • Conference paper
    Oluleye O, 2020,

    Reducing Carbon Mitigation costs of Biogas Fuelled Solid Oxide Fuel Cells: An impact of new business models

    , 15th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy Water and Environment Systems (SDEWES 2020)

    The high cost of the SOFC makes it difficult to achieve win-win between emission reduction and economic benefits. Most studies neglect the CO2abatement costs associated with cleaner technologies, and studies on abatement costs focus on a global perspective, neglecting technology-specific abatement costs. The SOFC abatement cost can be reduced with innovations in business models. In this work a novel enviro-economic framework whose basis is a detailed optimisation of a plant is developed and applied to quantify the impactof new business models (specifically looking at offsetting capital costs by ploughing back operational savings from a high-efficient SOFC) on reducing the CO2abatement cost of biogas fuelled SOFC systems. Case studies show the new business models reduces the abatement cost from 122 to 56 € per ton in Bulgaria, 160 to 92 € per ton in Czech Republic, and 150 to -90 € per ton in the UK.
  • Journal article
    Jennings N, Fecht D, De Matteis S, 2020,

    Mapping the co-benefits of climate change action to issues of public concern in the UK: a narrative review

    , The Lancet Planetary Health, Vol: 4, Pages: e424-e433, ISSN: 2542-5196

    To avoid a 1·5°C rise in global temperatures above preindustrial levels, the next phase of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will need to be comparatively rapid. Linking the co-benefits of climate action to wider issues that the public are concerned about can help decision makers to prioritise decarbonisation options that increase the chance of public support for such changes, while ensuring that a just transition is delivered. We identified key issues of concern to the UK public by use of Ipsos MORI public opinion data from 2007 to 2020 and used these data to guide a narrative review of academic and grey literature on the co-benefits of climate change action for the UK. Correspondence with civil servants, third sector organisations, and relevant academics allowed us to identify omissions and to ensure policy relevance of the recommendations. This evidence-based Review of the various co-benefits of climate change action for the UK identifies four main areas: health and the National Health Service; security; economy and unemployment; and poverty, housing, and inequality. Associated trade-offs are also discussed. City-level and regional-level governments are particularly well placed to incorporate co-benefits into their decision making because it is at this scale that co-benefits most clearly manifest, and where interventions can have the most immediate effects.
  • Working paper
    Konstantinoudis G, Padellini T, Bennett J, Davies B, Ezzati M, Blangiardo Met al., 2020,

    Long-term exposure to air-pollution and COVID-19 mortality in England: a hierarchical spatial analysis

    , Publisher: MedRxiv

    Recent studies suggested a link between long-term exposure to air-pollution and COVID-19 mortality. However, due to their ecological design based on large spatial units, they neglect the strong localised air-pollution patterns, and potentially lead to inadequate confounding adjustment. We investigated the effect of long-term exposure to NO2 and PM2.5 on COVID-19 deaths up to June 30, 2020 in England using high geographical resolution. In this nationwide cross-sectional study in England, we included 38,573 COVID-19 deaths up to June 30, 2020 at the Lower Layer Super Output Area level (n=32,844 small areas). We retrieved averaged NO2 and PM2.5 concentration during 2014-2018 from the Pollution Climate Mapping. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effect of air-pollution while adjusting for a series of confounding and spatial autocorrelation. We find a 0.5% (95% credible interval: -0.2%, 1.2%) and 1.4% (95% CrI: -2.1%, 5.1%) increase in COVID-19 mortality risk for every 1μg/m3 increase in NO2 and PM2.5 respectively, after adjusting for confounding and spatial autocorrelation. This corresponds to a posterior probability of a positive effect equal to 0.93 and 0.78 respectively. The spatial relative risk at LSOA level revealed strong patterns, similar for the different pollutants. This potentially captures the spread of the disease during the first wave of the epidemic. Our study provides some evidence of an effect of long-term NO2 exposure on COVID-19 mortality, while the effect of PM2.5 remains more uncertain.
  • Journal article
    Liu F, Tan Q-G, Weiss D, Crémazy A, Fortin C, Campbell PGCet al., 2020,

    Unravelling metal speciation in the microenvironment surrounding phytoplankton cells to improve predictions of metal bioavailability.

    , Environmental Science and Technology (Washington), Vol: 54, Pages: 8177-8185, ISSN: 0013-936X

    A lack of knowledge on metal speciation in the microenvironment surrounding phytoplankton cells (i.e., the phycosphere) represents an impediment to accurately predicting metal bioavailability. Phycosphere pH and O2 concentrations from a diversity of algae species were compiled. For marine algae in the light, the average increases were 0.32 pH units and 0.17 mM O2 in the phycosphere, whereas in the dark the average decreases were 0.10 pH units and 0.03 mM O2, in comparison to bulk seawater. In freshwater algae, the phycosphere pH increased by 1.28 units, whereas O2 increased by 0.38 mM in the light. Equilibrium modeling showed that the pH alteration influenced the chemical species distribution (i.e., free ion, inorganic complexes, and organic complexes) of Al, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sc, Sm, and Zn in the phycosphere, and the O2 fluctuation increased oxidation rates of Cu(I), Fe(II) and Mn(II) from 2 to 938-fold. The pH/O2-induced changes in phycosphere metal chemistry were larger for freshwater algae than for marine species. Reanalyses of algal metal uptake data in the literature showed that uptake of the trivalent metals (Sc, Sm and Fe), in addition to divalent metals, can be better predicted after considering the phycosphere chemistry.
  • Report
    Waring B, Neumann M, Prentice IC, Adams M, Smith P, Siegert Met al., 2020,

    What role can forests play in tackling climate change?

    , What role can forests play in tackling climate change?, www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Discussion paper 6

    This discussion paper consolidates knowledge on the potential environmental, economic and societal benefits of using trees to reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It highlights areas for further research and defines the limits of trees’ ability to halt the progress of climate change.
  • Journal article
    Hauser A, Counotte MJ, Margossian CC, Konstantinoudis G, Low N, Althaus CL, Riou Jet al., 2020,

    Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: A modeling study in Hubei, China, and six regions in Europe

    , PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 17, ISSN: 1549-1277
    • Cite
    • Citations: 90
  • Journal article
    Lefauve A, Linden PF, 2020,

    Buoyancy-driven exchange flows in inclined ducts

    , JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 893, ISSN: 0022-1120
    • Cite
    • Citations: 21
  • Journal article
    Wang S, Rashid T, Thorp H, Toumi Ret al., 2020,

    A shortening of the life-cycle of major tropical cyclones

    , Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 47, Pages: 28 Jul 2020-28 Jul 2020, ISSN: 0094-8276

    In this study a comprehensive picture of the changing intensity life cycle of major (Category 3 and higher) tropical cyclones (TCs) is presented. Over the past decades, the lifetime maximum intensity has increased, but there has also been a significant decrease in duration of time spent at intensities greater than Category 1. These compensating effects have maintained a stable global mean‐accumulated cyclone energy of individual major TCs. The global mean duration of major TCs has shortened by about 1 day from 1982 to 2018. There has been both faster intensification (Categories 1 to 3) and weakening (Categories 3 to 1) by about 40%. The probabilities of rapid intensification and rapid weakening have both risen in the period 2000–2018 compared to 1982–1999. A statistically significant anticorrelation is found between the lifetime maximum intensity and the following duration of the final weakening. This suggests an element of self‐regulation of TC life cycles.
  • Report
    Siegert M, Bacon S, Barnes D, Brooks I, Burgess H, Cottier F, Depledge D, Dodds K, Edwards M, Essery R, Heywood K, Hendry K, Jones V, Lea J, Medby I, Meredith M, Screen J, Steinberg P, Tarling G, Warner J, Young Get al., 2020,

    The Arctic and the UK: climate, research and engagement

    , The Arctic and the UK: climate, research and engagement, www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: The Grantham Institute, Discussion Paper 7

    This discussion paper explains how the UK’s climate is linked to conditions in the Arctic, and why a UK Arctic science strategy is integral to understanding how global warming will change the Arctic and affect the UK.
  • Journal article
    Rao RR, Kolb MJ, Giordano L, Pedersen AF, Katayama Y, Hwang J, Mehta A, You H, Lunger JR, Zhou H, Halck NB, Vegge T, Chorkendorff I, Stephens IEL, Shao-Horn Yet al., 2020,

    Operando identification of site-dependent water oxidation activity on ruthenium dioxide single-crystal surfaces

    , NATURE CATALYSIS, Vol: 3, Pages: 516-525, ISSN: 2520-1158
  • Report
    Siegert M, Haywood A, Lunt D, van de Flierdt T, Francis Jet al., 2020,

    What ancient climates tell us about high carbon dioxide concentrations in Earth’s atmosphere

    , What ancient climates tell us about high carbon dioxide concentrations in Earth’s atmosphere, http://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: The Grantham Institute, Briefing note 13

    This briefing discusses the last time our planet had the same levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as it does today, and what environmental conditions were like then. Studying the geology from this and earlier periods tells us that global temperatures may rise by over 10°C if we keep emitting carbon dioxide as forecast for the next 80 years. The paper explains how, to avoid this catastrophic climate, the world must cut greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050 at the latest.
  • Report
    Rhodes A, 2020,

    Digitalisation of Energy: An Energy Futures Lab Briefing Paper

    , Digitalisation of Energy: An Energy Futures Lab Briefing Paper, London, Publisher: Energy Futures Lab

    Digital technology has the potential toradically reshape the way we generate,trade and consume energy. Over the pastdecade, the incorporation of informationand communications technology intothe energy system has emerged as asignificant driver of change in the sectorbut the pace and scale of that change islikely to increase dramatically over thedecades to come.This Briefing Paper investigates the keytechnologies that underpin the digitisation ofenergy and examines their potential impacts. Theoverarching objective of the paper is to understandthe effects new technologies will have on thecurrent energy system, the new challenges theywill pose, and the policies and regulatory measureswhich will assist in making them a success.Specifically, this paper considers four technologicalareas of digitalisation: big data; machine learningand AI; the Internet of things; and distributedledger technology, often referred to as blockchain.
  • Report
    Allan J, Donovan C, Ekins P, Gambhir A, Hepburn C, Reay D, Robins N, Shuckburgh E, Zenghelis Det al., 2020,

    A net-zero emissions economic recovery from COVID-19

    , A net-zero emissions economic recovery from COVID-19, www.imperial.ac.uk/Grantham, Publisher: COP26 Universities Network, 1

    This briefing identifies key recovery policies that the UK government could introduce to both respond to the crisis of COVID-19, and support the country in meeting its commitment to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.
  • Journal article
    Konstantinoudis G, Schuhmacher D, Ammann RA, Diesch T, Kuehni CE, Spycher BDet al., 2020,

    Bayesian spatial modelling of childhood cancer incidence in Switzerland using exact point data: a nationwide study during 1985-2015

    , INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HEALTH GEOGRAPHICS, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1476-072X
  • Report
    Hirst N, 2020,

    Paying for net-zero – The fiscal framework for the UK’s transitionto low-carbon energy

    , Paying for net-zero – The fiscal framework for the UK’s transitionto low-carbon energy, Publisher: The Grantham Institute, Discussion Paper 5

    Strong action must be taken to achieve the UK’s target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. From a financial perspective, this will require a combination of carbon taxation, regulation and direct government intervention, and the willingness of the public to adapt will be crucial. This paper reviews the options available and calls for wide ranging public debate.
  • Journal article
    Bruneau N, Wang S, Toumi R, 2020,

    Long memory impact of ocean mesoscale temperature anomalies on tropical cyclone size

    , Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 47, ISSN: 0094-8276

    Mesoscale ocean temperature anomalies modify a tropical cyclone (TC). Through a modeling study we show that, while the maximum wind speed is rapidly restored after the TC passes a warm‐ or cold‐ (eddy size) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, the storm size changes are more significant and persistent. The radius of gale force winds and integrated kinetic energy (IKE) can change by more than 10% per degree and this endures several days after crossing an SST anomaly. These properties have a long memory of the impact from the ocean fluxes and depend on the integrated history of SST exposure. They are found to be directly proportional to the storm total precipitation. Accurate continuous forecast of the SST along the track may therefore be of central importance to improving predictions of size and IKE, while instantaneous local SST near the TC core is more important for the forecast of maximum wind speed.
  • Journal article
    Ito K, Wu C-C, Chan KTF, Toumi R, Davis Cet al., 2020,

    Recent progress in the fundamental understanding of tropical cyclone motion

    , Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol: 98, Pages: 5-17, ISSN: 0026-1165

    While the fundamental understanding of tropical cyclone (TC) movement is fairly mature, notable advancements are still being made. This paper summarizes new concepts and updates to the existing fundamental theories on TC movement obtained from simplified barotropic models, full-physics models, and data analysis, particularly since 2014. The scope includes recent works on the interaction between a TC and its environment, and the predictability related to TC movement. Although conventional concepts of steering flow, β-gyre, and diabatic heating remain important, a more complete understanding of TC movement governing mechanisms can provide an important basis for further track forecast improvements.
  • Report
    Baranda Alonso J, Sandwell P, 2020,

    Sustainable mini-grid systems in refugee camps: A case study of Rwanda

    , Sustainable mini-grid systems in refugee camps: A case study of Rwanda, http://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/, Publisher: The Grantham Institute, 12

    This briefing note considers how clean energy solutions can be used by humanitarian organisations to both reduce the cost and environmental footprint of their operations, and promote the resilience and independence of displaced communities. Using Rwanda as a case study, the authors provide recommendations for how the private sector and policymakers can encourage greener humanitarian operations.

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