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ReportBarnes C, Konstantinoudis G, Masselot P, et al., 2025,
Summer heat deaths in 854 European cities more than tripled due to climate change
, Publisher: Grantham Institute and London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineFocusing on 854 European cities, this study found climate change was responsible for 68% of the 24,400estimated heat deaths this summer by increasing temperatures by up to 3.6°C.The analysis was led by researchers at Imperial College London and London School of Hygiene & TropicalMedicine, who warn the result is only a snapshot of the death toll linked to extreme heat as the cities studiedrepresent about 30% of Europe’s population. It follows a study by the same team which found climatechange could have tripled the death toll of a July heatwave in Europe.
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Journal articleQi W, Yong B, Ritchie EA, et al., 2025,
Global increase of tropical cyclone precipitation rate toward coasts
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 52, ISSN: 0094-8276Tropical cyclones (TCs) induced precipitation poses a critical threat to coastal regions. In the context of global warming and humidification, it remains to be clarified whether coastal exposure to TC-induced precipitation has a detectable response. Based on multi-source data sets in the past four decades, this study investigates the coastward trends of global TC-induced precipitation changes. We find that the TC lifetime maximum precipitation intensities show a statistically significant landward migration, moving about 30 km per decade. Furthermore, the precipitation intensities of TCs exhibit faster growth in coastal areas, with a concurrent rapid expansion of the land coverage of TC-induced precipitation. A consistent pattern of change is demonstrated between intensifying TC-induced precipitation and the warming-humidifying ambient environment, with higher significance in coastal areas. Our findings suggest that the spatial heterogeneity in global climate change may have contributed to the modulation of coastal TC-induced precipitation.
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Journal articleDavids D, Grant N, Mittal S, et al., 2025,
Impact of methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate on blue hydrogen sustainability using combined warming index
, Applied Energy, Vol: 394, ISSN: 0306-2619Blue hydrogen may become important to achieve decarbonisation targets. Yet, the uncertainty and aggregated impact of methane leakage rate and carbon dioxide capture rate on the value of blue hydrogen from a whole systems perspective has not been investigated. Our study focuses on the impact of the dual influence of these variables in an energy system model of the United Kingdom (UK). We incorporate practical ranges for methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate and analyse their impact by formulating a novel parameter, termed the Combined Warming Index (CWI). The CWI can be used to assess decarbonisation scenario outputs from energy system models giving insights into their effects on the dynamics of energy system and decarbonisation parameters. Our results suggest that sustainable deployment of blue hydrogen becomes threatened at a carbon capture rate of 85 % and across the range of methane leakage rates of 0.125 %, 0.5 %, 1 %, 1.5 % and 2.5 %. At a carbon capture rate of 90 %, and methane leakage rates at 1 %, 1.5 % and 2.5 %, blue hydrogen is not significantly deployed to 2050. Methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate are key parameters for the success of blue hydrogen as a low-carbon hydrogen option, and although carbon capture rate is the more critical parameter, methane leakage rate is also important but becomes a secondary concern in natural gas supply chains with low fugitive emissions. The outcome of our research can contribute to framing relevant policy for the application of CCS technology as society seeks to attain low-carbon economy aims.
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Journal articleYu X, Li J, Zhou Y, et al., 2025,
Identification of the microorganisms for methane-dependent arsenate reduction in wetland using DNA-stable isotope probing and metagenomics
, WATER RESEARCH, Vol: 284, ISSN: 0043-1354 -
Journal articleLi M, Toumi R, 2025,
Can tropical cyclones exist near the Equator?
, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN: 0035-9009Tropical cyclones (TCs) rarely form within about 5 degrees of latitude of theEquator due to the weak Coriolis force, yet it is not clear how a weak Coriolisforce would affect an already developed TC vortex. In this study, a set of Cori-olis parameter (f ) sensitivity experiments are applied to a well-developed TCvortex in idealized simulations by decreasing f to zero, both abruptly and grad-ually. The simulated TCs weaken due to the reduction of f . However, dependingon the initial intensity, it can take several days for the TC to decay to a tropicalstorm. Both radial inflow and outflow strengthen throughout the cyclone depth,because of decreasing inertial stability and increasing agradient force associ-ated with reduced f . This further causes a deeper inflow layer and strengtheneddowndrafts associated with convection in the outer rainbands. The downdraftentrainment of mid-level dry air into the deeper inflow layer stabilizes theboundary layer and suppresses deep convection, ultimately resulting in theweakening of TCs. Although TCs are not formed readily near the Equator, if theyare steered there they could potentially exist long enough to cause damage.
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ReportKeeping T, García García D, Trigo R, et al., 2025,
Extreme fire weather conditions in Spain and Portugal now common due to climate change
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Journal articleEmmanuel R, Deshpande M, Anandh TS, et al., 2025,
Application of stream function in tracking a quasi-closed circulation and its characteristics in developing and non-developing tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean
, TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH AND REVIEW, Vol: 14, Pages: 185-202, ISSN: 2225-6032 -
ReportKeeping T, Bergin C, Pinto I, et al., 2025,
Weather conditions leading to deadly wildfires in Türkiye, Cyprus and Greece made 10 times more likely due to climate change
, Publisher: Centre for Envirmental Policy -
Journal articleLi S, Li Y, Deng S, et al., 2025,
A novel framework for Adsorption Thermodynamics: Combining standardized methodology with machine learning-based text classification
, Energy, Vol: 329, ISSN: 0360-5442Adsorption is a common surface phenomenon that involves the transfer of adsorbates onto solid adsorbent surfaces. It allows for calculating changes in thermodynamic variables, revealing their fundamental nature. There is still a lack of clear definitions and unified standards for thermodynamic systems in Adsorption Thermodynamics research. Consequently, using different theoretical assumptions to describe the process complicates comparisons of calculated thermodynamic variable changes. This stagnation in Adsorption Thermodynamics research has limited its practicality. This work aims to restructure the current state of Adsorption Thermodynamics research by establishing a standardized methodology. For specific adsorption processes, a unified thermodynamic system was defined, and the corresponding calculation of thermodynamic variables change was carried out based on reasonable assumptions from various theories. A machine learning (ML)-based text classification model was developed to assist in selecting the most suitable simplified assumption for practical adsorption scenarios. This comprehensive framework was established to deepen the understanding of the adsorption process from a thermodynamic perspective.
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ReportBarnes C, Clarke B, Rantanen M, et al., 2025,
Intense two-week heatwave in Fennoscandia hotter and more likely due to climate change
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Journal articleAtoufi A, Zhu L, Lefauve A, et al., 2025,
Three-layer stratified exchange flows: hydraulically controlled transition to turbulence
, JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 1016, ISSN: 0022-1120 -
ReportZachariah M, Saeed F, Clarke B, et al., 2025,
Climate change intensified heavy monsoon rain in Pakistan, exacerbating urban floods that impacted highly exposed communities
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Journal articleToumi R, Sparks N, 2025,
The Hurricane Damage Index (HurDI)
, Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience, Vol: 03, ISSN: 3049-7604Statistical hurricane risk assessments make long-term multi-decadal stationary climate assumptions, but there is large hurricane variability in the risk. It would be useful to also better estimate the “current” risk. The hurricane damage index (HurDI), is proposed as a measure of the underlying non-stationary risk. The HurDI is defined as the normalised annual average damage calculated with a stochastic wind only model, a single damage function, and uniform exposure across the continental U.S. The stochastic model is climate conditioned by weighting the historical basin hurricane counts, potential intensity, and tracks. The weights are chosen to give the best persistence forecast for each parameter for the next five years. There has been a substantial increase of the hurricane risk as measured by the HurDI. In 2024, the index was at a record high of 188, with a reference value of 100 in 1989. The HurDI is a dynamic view of risk based on the hurricane variability only and can be compared to U.S. property catastrophe reinsurance rates. There are periods of varying difference between the rates and the HurDI reflecting the volatile market cycles.
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Journal articleRoulston M, Kaivanto K, Toumi R, 2025,
Tracking evolving views of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season with an expert prediction market
, Weather, Vol: 80, Pages: 277-280, ISSN: 0043-1656Before the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season began, the consensus was that it would be one of the most active seasons in history. However, a prolonged quiet period during late August and early September possibly led forecasters to question these predictions, before later activity fulfilled the season’s high expectations. The CRUCIAL initiative ran a ‘prediction market’ during 2024 which allowed experts to bet on the number of hurricanes. Prices in this market provide an insight into how views changed during the season. Prediction markets can efficiently aggregate the judgements of multiple experts and provide more up-to-date information than periodically issued forecasts.
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Journal articleWidana Arachchige EL, Zhou W, Toumi R, et al., 2025,
Projected tropical cyclone genesis and seasonality changes in the Northern Hemisphere under a warming climate
, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol: 8, ISSN: 2397-3722The impact of global warming on future tropical cyclone (TC) development is substantial; however, the predictability of TC genesis remains uncertain. In this study, we investigate projected changes in TC genesis on a regional scale over the North Atlantic (NA) and western North Pacific (WNP) ocean basins, focusing on TC seasonality through bias-corrected model simulations. Our study unveils a weakening of peak TC genesis (August-October; ASO) at lower latitudes under a high-emission scenario, along with a strengthening of TC peak (July-September; JAS) at higher latitudes. Most importantly, positive vertical velocity (ω) in the mid-troposphere (500 hPa) plays a dominant role in weakening the TC peak in the tropics, while weak vertical wind shear (VWS) in the subtropics facilitates TC development. Our study elucidates the impact of climate change on the regional environment and the ensuing possible changes in TC seasonality, offering essential insights into future projected TC genesis in the Northern Hemisphere.
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ReportZachariah M, Ceballos-Bonilla LI, Sepúlveda-Berrío J, et al., 2025,
Growing exposure and uncertain rainfall trends highlight the critical need for climate resilience in Colombia and Venezuela
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Journal articleOluleye G, McLaughlin S, Steen E, et al., 2025,
Blending interventions to achieve green hydrogen cost competitiveness for industrial decarbonisation
, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol: 144, Pages: 1343-1357, ISSN: 0360-3199Industrial decarbonisation can be supported by green hydrogen as a fuel and feedstock, but its cost remains too high to compete with natural gas. In this study, the achievement of cost competitiveness for green hydrogen is examined through a combination of internal interventions, including the reduction of electrolysis costs via waste heat sales to district heating networks and the use of curtailed wind, alongside external interventions such as market-based policies and sustainability-linked bonds. A novel temporal market penetration assessment model has been developed and applied to evaluate the impact of these interventions, both individually and in combination, on achieving cost parity. The methodology has been implemented in a UK case study to assess these dynamics within the energy landscape and policy framework. The findings indicate that cost reductions of 17.5 % can be achieved through hydrogen from curtailed wind, while waste heat utilisation contributes a 24.7 % reduction. Existing policy measures are found to have the potential to lower costs by 39 %. A total cost reduction of 78 % is observed when interventions are blended, with green hydrogen from curtailed wind projected to reach cost parity with natural gas by the mid-2030s under high natural gas price scenarios. The feasibility of blended interventions in facilitating the industrial adoption of green hydrogen is thereby demonstrated.
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Journal articleYang Y, Toumi R, 2025,
Large dynamic contributions to tropical cyclone precipitation with increasing sea surface temperature
, Environmental Research Letters, Vol: 20, ISSN: 1748-9326 -
Journal articleYe H, Favero S, Tyrrell H, et al., 2025,
Progress and Challenges in Electrochemical Glycerol Oxidation: The Importance of Benchmark Methods and Protocols
, CHEMCATCHEM, Vol: 17, ISSN: 1867-3880 -
Journal articleDavids D, Grant N, Mittal S, et al., 2025,
Assessing a mixed hydrogen economy for resilient net-zero using energy system modelling
, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol: 138, Pages: 1092-1103, ISSN: 0360-3199Low-carbon hydrogen will play a key role in the portfolio of alternative fuels towards climate targets. However, there are gaps in determining how deploying different hydrogen colours and production pathways contributes to achieving climate goals in a jurisdiction, including the economic impact on the energy system, the wider system, and the impact on the final energy mix. This work is the first to perform a detailed analysis of the interrelation between blue hydrogen, green hydrogen (onshore and offshore produced) and other hydrogen colours using an energy system model. Results show that for scenarios where blue hydrogen and green hydrogen are not deployed, green hydrogen is not deployed, blue hydrogen is not deployed, and blue hydrogen, onshore and offshore green hydrogen are deployed, have energy system costs 0.94 %, 0.32 %, 0.06 % and −0.1 % respectively from a reference with the base hydrogen types, blue and only onshore green available. Our optimum 'Mixed Hydrogen Economy' scenario has lowest decarbonisation costs by 2050 when net-zero emissions is achieved and ensures diversity of energy supply to boost energy security. Results emphasise the hydrogen economy is most pronounced when all available and sustainable hydrogen production options are deployed. The findings contribute towards evaluating the impact of hydrogen deployment in low-emissions scenarios.
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ReportKew S, Drost Jensen C, Björnsson H, et al., 2025,
Climate change drives record-breaking heat in Iceland and Greenland challenging cold adapted ecosystems and societies
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
ReportZachariah M, Reid K, King A, et al., 2025,
Mixed rainfall trends highlight the importance of climate adaptation in coastal New South Wales
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Journal articleFuertes E, Konstantinoudis G, van der Plaat D, et al., 2025,
Vulnerability to pollen-related asthma hospital admissions in the UK Biobank: a case-crossover study
, Allergy, ISSN: 0105-4538 -
Journal articleTheokritoff E, Lejeune Q, Costa HP, et al., 2025,
Climate overshoot implications for local adaptation planning
, Climate Policy, ISSN: 1469-3062As global warming increases, the topic of overshoot, understood as the temporary exceedance of the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement, is gaining prominence both in scientific and political spheres. However, overshoot and its implications for adaptation in the short – and long-term remain unexplored. In this Perspective, we reflect on the current use of global climate scenarios and local impact projections in science-based adaptation planning. The risks arising from overshoot scenarios in relation to the transgression of limits to adaptation and impact irreversibility are highlighted. We find that the prospects of potential long-term impact reversibility may have limited relevance in most adaptation decision-making contexts, indicating that it might be peak warming, rather than a long-term outcome, that determines adaptation needs and costs. While overshoot may not be relevant for short-term planning, it should be considered for long-term plans and policies, for example for infrastructure-based measures and for irreversible impacts such as sea-level rise. Key insights from adaptation practitioners in four diverse urban vulnerability contexts (Bodø, Lisbon, Nassau, Islamabad) are presented on how these risks are perceived and integrated (or not) into local planning and policy-making. We find that current adaptation planning must be extensively evaluated against a wider set of future global climate outcomes to incorporate risks of transgression of local limits to adaptation and overshoot. To this end, data gaps on adaptation limits and impact reversibility need to be filled and capacity building needs on climate scenarios, overshoot and related concepts for local adaptation practitioners should be addressed.
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Journal articleChen J, Toumi R, Zhang L, et al., 2025,
Radial rainfall pattern changes of intense over‐ocean tropical cyclones under global warming: insights from an MRI HighRes CMIP6 simulation
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 52, ISSN: 0094-8276Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall is an important hazard. Radial rainfall patterns of intense over‐ocean TCs under global warming are investigated using the MRI HighRes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulation with the SSP5‐8.5 high‐emission scenario. These patterns are characterized by four parameters: rainfall at the cyclone center (To), maximum rainfall (Tm), radius of maximum rainfall (Rm), and e‐folding radius (Re). We find Tm strongly correlates (r = 0.8) with a moisture convergence proxy—boundary‐layer maximum wind times column moisture divided by the radius of maximum wind—across differentintensities and under climate change. Under warming, mean Tm and To increase by 8.65%/K and 8.86%/K, while Rm and Re shrink by 1.03%/K and 1.79%/K, respectively. Notably, under warming, Tm exhibits greater sensitivity to TC intensity, and its increases are mainly attributed to column moisture increase.
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Journal articleFu H, Cenedese C, Lefauve A, et al., 2025,
A laboratory analogy for mixing by shallow cumulus convection
, JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 1011, ISSN: 0022-1120- Cite
- Citations: 1
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ReportClarke B, Otto F, Pinto I, et al., 2025,
Effective emergency management prevented larger catastrophe after climate change fueled heavy rains in Central Mississippi river valley
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Journal articleRai U, Chen J, Oluleye G, et al., 2025,
Stochastic optimisation model to optimise the contractual generation capacity of a battery-integrated distributed energy resource in a balancing services contract
, Energy, Vol: 322, ISSN: 0360-5442Popular heuristic approaches applied by demand response aggregators often use conservative tactics and may fall short of the contractual generation capacity of a distributed energy resource (DER) allocation in a balancing services (BS) contract. Hence, the possibility of optimising revenue remains generally unexplored. This research presents a novel framework for aggregators by employing a two-stage stochastic mixed integer nonlinear programming model to tackle site electricity demand unpredictability and the uncertainty of short-term operating reserve (STOR) calls to find the optimal generation capacity of a diesel generator (DG) to contract in STOR service. In the first stage, K-means clustering for innovative segmentation and rigorously categorising half-hourly site electricity demand data into optimal demand bins is employed. In the second stage, the model integrates a behind-the-meter battery energy storage system (BESS) to enhance performance and evaluate scenarios with and without BESS. Additionally, the study evaluates the effects of varying BESS capacities to enhance the contractual capacity of the DG, resulting in significantly improved revenue. A rigorous sensitivity analysis of penalty cost, utilization payment, and storage capacity ensures the robustness of the model across varied conditions. Results show the site revenue increases between 7.91 % and 20.27 % compared to the deterministic MIQCP approach previously employed.
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Journal articleLi S, Huang Z, Li Y, et al., 2025,
Methodology for predicting material performance by context-based modeling: A case study on solid amine CO2 adsorbents
, Energy and AI, Vol: 20Traditional materials informatics leverages big data and machine learning (ML) to forecast material performance based on structural features but often overlooks valuable textual information. In this work, we proposed a novel methodology for predicting material performance through context-based modeling using large language models (LLMs). This method integrates both numerical and textual information, enhancing predictive accuracy and scalability. In the case study, the approach is applied to predict the performance of solid amine CO<inf>2</inf> adsorbents under direct air capture (DAC) conditions. ChatGPT 4o model was used to employ in-context learning to predict CO<inf>2</inf> adsorption uptake based on input features, including material properties and experimental conditions. The results show that context-based modeling can reduce prediction error in comparison to traditional ML models in the prediction task. We adopted Sapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to further elucidate the importance of various input features. This work highlights the potential of LLMs in materials science, offering a cost-effective, efficient solution for complex predictive tasks.
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ReportBarnes C, Lee J-Y, Yang Y-M, et al., 2025,
Climate change made weather conditions leading to deadly South Korean wildfires about twice as likely
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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