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ReportBarnes C, Konstantinoudis G, Masselot P, et al., 2025,
Summer heat deaths in 854 European cities more than tripled due to climate change
, Publisher: Grantham Institute and London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineFocusing on 854 European cities, this study found climate change was responsible for 68% of the 24,400estimated heat deaths this summer by increasing temperatures by up to 3.6°C.The analysis was led by researchers at Imperial College London and London School of Hygiene & TropicalMedicine, who warn the result is only a snapshot of the death toll linked to extreme heat as the cities studiedrepresent about 30% of Europe’s population. It follows a study by the same team which found climatechange could have tripled the death toll of a July heatwave in Europe.
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Journal articleQi W, Yong B, Ritchie EA, et al., 2025,
Global increase of tropical cyclone precipitation rate toward coasts
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 52, ISSN: 0094-8276Tropical cyclones (TCs) induced precipitation poses a critical threat to coastal regions. In the context of global warming and humidification, it remains to be clarified whether coastal exposure to TC-induced precipitation has a detectable response. Based on multi-source data sets in the past four decades, this study investigates the coastward trends of global TC-induced precipitation changes. We find that the TC lifetime maximum precipitation intensities show a statistically significant landward migration, moving about 30 km per decade. Furthermore, the precipitation intensities of TCs exhibit faster growth in coastal areas, with a concurrent rapid expansion of the land coverage of TC-induced precipitation. A consistent pattern of change is demonstrated between intensifying TC-induced precipitation and the warming-humidifying ambient environment, with higher significance in coastal areas. Our findings suggest that the spatial heterogeneity in global climate change may have contributed to the modulation of coastal TC-induced precipitation.
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Journal articleDavids D, Grant N, Mittal S, et al., 2025,
Impact of methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate on blue hydrogen sustainability using combined warming index
, Applied Energy, Vol: 394, ISSN: 0306-2619Blue hydrogen may become important to achieve decarbonisation targets. Yet, the uncertainty and aggregated impact of methane leakage rate and carbon dioxide capture rate on the value of blue hydrogen from a whole systems perspective has not been investigated. Our study focuses on the impact of the dual influence of these variables in an energy system model of the United Kingdom (UK). We incorporate practical ranges for methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate and analyse their impact by formulating a novel parameter, termed the Combined Warming Index (CWI). The CWI can be used to assess decarbonisation scenario outputs from energy system models giving insights into their effects on the dynamics of energy system and decarbonisation parameters. Our results suggest that sustainable deployment of blue hydrogen becomes threatened at a carbon capture rate of 85 % and across the range of methane leakage rates of 0.125 %, 0.5 %, 1 %, 1.5 % and 2.5 %. At a carbon capture rate of 90 %, and methane leakage rates at 1 %, 1.5 % and 2.5 %, blue hydrogen is not significantly deployed to 2050. Methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate are key parameters for the success of blue hydrogen as a low-carbon hydrogen option, and although carbon capture rate is the more critical parameter, methane leakage rate is also important but becomes a secondary concern in natural gas supply chains with low fugitive emissions. The outcome of our research can contribute to framing relevant policy for the application of CCS technology as society seeks to attain low-carbon economy aims.
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ReportLowe C, 2025,
Accelerating innovation in building retrofit for a net zero future
, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Imperial College LondonMany UK homes and other buildings are poorly insulated, expensive to heat, and rely on fossil fuels for heating and cooking. Upgrades through retrofit can help deliver comfortable, climate-resilient, low-carbon dwellings, but challenges such as the scale of disruption and limited options for suitable products put many people off. This background briefing, which shares insights from the Better Futures Retrofit Accelerator programme, showcases some of the ways in which innovation in the building retrofit sector can help overcome these challenges and how targeted support for innovators can help get these products to market, benefitting households and helping to build a thriving UK retrofit sector.
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Journal articleEmmanuel R, Deshpande M, Anandh TS, et al., 2025,
Application of stream function in tracking a quasi-closed circulation and its characteristics in developing and non-developing tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean
, TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH AND REVIEW, Vol: 14, Pages: 185-202, ISSN: 2225-6032 -
Journal articleLi S, Li Y, Deng S, et al., 2025,
A novel framework for Adsorption Thermodynamics: Combining standardized methodology with machine learning-based text classification
, Energy, Vol: 329, ISSN: 0360-5442Adsorption is a common surface phenomenon that involves the transfer of adsorbates onto solid adsorbent surfaces. It allows for calculating changes in thermodynamic variables, revealing their fundamental nature. There is still a lack of clear definitions and unified standards for thermodynamic systems in Adsorption Thermodynamics research. Consequently, using different theoretical assumptions to describe the process complicates comparisons of calculated thermodynamic variable changes. This stagnation in Adsorption Thermodynamics research has limited its practicality. This work aims to restructure the current state of Adsorption Thermodynamics research by establishing a standardized methodology. For specific adsorption processes, a unified thermodynamic system was defined, and the corresponding calculation of thermodynamic variables change was carried out based on reasonable assumptions from various theories. A machine learning (ML)-based text classification model was developed to assist in selecting the most suitable simplified assumption for practical adsorption scenarios. This comprehensive framework was established to deepen the understanding of the adsorption process from a thermodynamic perspective.
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Journal articleAtoufi A, Zhu L, Lefauve A, et al., 2025,
Three-layer stratified exchange flows: hydraulically controlled transition to turbulence
, JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 1016, ISSN: 0022-1120 -
Journal articleToumi R, Sparks N, 2025,
The Hurricane Damage Index (HurDI)
, Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience, Vol: 03, ISSN: 3049-7604Statistical hurricane risk assessments make long-term multi-decadal stationary climate assumptions, but there is large hurricane variability in the risk. It would be useful to also better estimate the “current” risk. The hurricane damage index (HurDI), is proposed as a measure of the underlying non-stationary risk. The HurDI is defined as the normalised annual average damage calculated with a stochastic wind only model, a single damage function, and uniform exposure across the continental U.S. The stochastic model is climate conditioned by weighting the historical basin hurricane counts, potential intensity, and tracks. The weights are chosen to give the best persistence forecast for each parameter for the next five years. There has been a substantial increase of the hurricane risk as measured by the HurDI. In 2024, the index was at a record high of 188, with a reference value of 100 in 1989. The HurDI is a dynamic view of risk based on the hurricane variability only and can be compared to U.S. property catastrophe reinsurance rates. There are periods of varying difference between the rates and the HurDI reflecting the volatile market cycles.
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ReportBird J, 2025,
Growth in a changing climate: workshop report
, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Imperial College LondonThis report summarises discussions held at two events exploring Growth in a Changing Climate held in June 2025.Economic growth is the Government’s number one mission. This will only be achieved if we think about growth in the context of a changing climate and take account of the physical impacts of climate change that are now locked in because of historic and ongoing emissions.Businesses need to be able to deal with our new and evolving climate reality. This means fully appreciating the physical risks that climate change will bring and taking action to build resilience.
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Journal articleRoulston M, Kaivanto K, Toumi R, 2025,
Tracking evolving views of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season with an expert prediction market
, Weather, Vol: 80, Pages: 277-280, ISSN: 0043-1656Before the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season began, the consensus was that it would be one of the most active seasons in history. However, a prolonged quiet period during late August and early September possibly led forecasters to question these predictions, before later activity fulfilled the season’s high expectations. The CRUCIAL initiative ran a ‘prediction market’ during 2024 which allowed experts to bet on the number of hurricanes. Prices in this market provide an insight into how views changed during the season. Prediction markets can efficiently aggregate the judgements of multiple experts and provide more up-to-date information than periodically issued forecasts.
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Journal articleWidana Arachchige EL, Zhou W, Toumi R, et al., 2025,
Projected tropical cyclone genesis and seasonality changes in the Northern Hemisphere under a warming climate
, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol: 8, ISSN: 2397-3722The impact of global warming on future tropical cyclone (TC) development is substantial; however, the predictability of TC genesis remains uncertain. In this study, we investigate projected changes in TC genesis on a regional scale over the North Atlantic (NA) and western North Pacific (WNP) ocean basins, focusing on TC seasonality through bias-corrected model simulations. Our study unveils a weakening of peak TC genesis (August-October; ASO) at lower latitudes under a high-emission scenario, along with a strengthening of TC peak (July-September; JAS) at higher latitudes. Most importantly, positive vertical velocity (ω) in the mid-troposphere (500 hPa) plays a dominant role in weakening the TC peak in the tropics, while weak vertical wind shear (VWS) in the subtropics facilitates TC development. Our study elucidates the impact of climate change on the regional environment and the ensuing possible changes in TC seasonality, offering essential insights into future projected TC genesis in the Northern Hemisphere.
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ReportBird J, Clarke B, Konstantinoudis G, et al., 2025,
UK and European heatwave 2025
, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Imperial College LondonThis background briefing covers evidence on the heatwave that affected the UK and Europe in June-July 2025. It also shares evidence on the impact of climate change on heatwaves, how heatwaves affect the economy, public attitudes towards heatwaves and what is being done to protect people in the UK.
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ReportClarke B, Konstantinoudis G, Barnes C, et al., 2025,
Climate change tripled heat-related deaths in early summer European heatwave
, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Imperial College LondonHuman-caused climate change intensified the recent European heatwave and increased the number of heat deaths by about 1,500 in 12 European cities.Focusing on ten days of heat from June 23 to July 2, the researchers estimated the death toll using peer-reviewed methods and found climate change nearly tripled the number of heat-related deaths, with fossil fuel use having increased heatwave temperatures up to 4°C across the cities.They warn that heatwave temperatures will keep rising and future death tolls are likely to be higher, until the world largely stops burning oil, gas and coal and reaches net zero emissions. It is the first rapid study to estimate the number of deaths linked to climate change for a heatwave and was led by scientists at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
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Journal articleOluleye G, McLaughlin S, Steen E, et al., 2025,
Blending interventions to achieve green hydrogen cost competitiveness for industrial decarbonisation
, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol: 144, Pages: 1343-1357, ISSN: 0360-3199Industrial decarbonisation can be supported by green hydrogen as a fuel and feedstock, but its cost remains too high to compete with natural gas. In this study, the achievement of cost competitiveness for green hydrogen is examined through a combination of internal interventions, including the reduction of electrolysis costs via waste heat sales to district heating networks and the use of curtailed wind, alongside external interventions such as market-based policies and sustainability-linked bonds. A novel temporal market penetration assessment model has been developed and applied to evaluate the impact of these interventions, both individually and in combination, on achieving cost parity. The methodology has been implemented in a UK case study to assess these dynamics within the energy landscape and policy framework. The findings indicate that cost reductions of 17.5 % can be achieved through hydrogen from curtailed wind, while waste heat utilisation contributes a 24.7 % reduction. Existing policy measures are found to have the potential to lower costs by 39 %. A total cost reduction of 78 % is observed when interventions are blended, with green hydrogen from curtailed wind projected to reach cost parity with natural gas by the mid-2030s under high natural gas price scenarios. The feasibility of blended interventions in facilitating the industrial adoption of green hydrogen is thereby demonstrated.
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ReportEissa M, Newberry Le Vay J, Jennings N, et al., 2025,
Integrating mental health into climate change adaptation policies
, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Imperial College LondonThis report was commissioned by United for Global Mental Health in collaboration with the Climate Cares Centre at Imperial College London to better understand the extent to which mental health has been integrated into national adaptation policies.
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Journal articleYang Y, Toumi R, 2025,
Large dynamic contributions to tropical cyclone precipitation with increasing sea surface temperature
, Environmental Research Letters, Vol: 20, ISSN: 1748-9326 -
Journal articleYe H, Favero S, Tyrrell H, et al., 2025,
Progress and Challenges in Electrochemical Glycerol Oxidation: The Importance of Benchmark Methods and Protocols
, CHEMCATCHEM, Vol: 17, ISSN: 1867-3880 -
Journal articleDavids D, Grant N, Mittal S, et al., 2025,
Assessing a mixed hydrogen economy for resilient net-zero using energy system modelling
, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol: 138, Pages: 1092-1103, ISSN: 0360-3199Low-carbon hydrogen will play a key role in the portfolio of alternative fuels towards climate targets. However, there are gaps in determining how deploying different hydrogen colours and production pathways contributes to achieving climate goals in a jurisdiction, including the economic impact on the energy system, the wider system, and the impact on the final energy mix. This work is the first to perform a detailed analysis of the interrelation between blue hydrogen, green hydrogen (onshore and offshore produced) and other hydrogen colours using an energy system model. Results show that for scenarios where blue hydrogen and green hydrogen are not deployed, green hydrogen is not deployed, blue hydrogen is not deployed, and blue hydrogen, onshore and offshore green hydrogen are deployed, have energy system costs 0.94 %, 0.32 %, 0.06 % and −0.1 % respectively from a reference with the base hydrogen types, blue and only onshore green available. Our optimum 'Mixed Hydrogen Economy' scenario has lowest decarbonisation costs by 2050 when net-zero emissions is achieved and ensures diversity of energy supply to boost energy security. Results emphasise the hydrogen economy is most pronounced when all available and sustainable hydrogen production options are deployed. The findings contribute towards evaluating the impact of hydrogen deployment in low-emissions scenarios.
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ReportKonstantinoudis G, Mistry M, Gasparrini A, 2025,
Real-time forecast of heat-related excess mortality during June 2025 heatwave
, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Imperial College LondonIt is well established that extreme heat increases the risk of mortality. During the exceptionally hot summer of 2022, an estimated 61,672 heat-related deaths occurred across 35 European countries, including approximately 3,000 excess deaths due to heatwaves in England. As the climate continues to warm, periods of extreme heat are becoming more frequent and intense.In this report, we estimate the expected excess deaths from exposure to heat during the first heatwave of 2025 in England and Wales, specifically between 19-22 June at small geographic scales.
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ReportEastham S, 2025,
Sustainable aviation fuel: what does it mean for airport expansion?
, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Imperial College LondonThis background briefing explores the topic of ‘sustainable aviation fuels’ (or SAFs), including their history, why they have been slow to scale-up, which cost and resource barriers will persist, and why SAFs are unlikely to be the game-changer that many are hoping for when it comes to solving the climate change questions raised by Heathrow expansion.
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Journal articleFuertes E, Konstantinoudis G, van der Plaat D, et al., 2025,
Vulnerability to pollen-related asthma hospital admissions in the UK Biobank: a case-crossover study
, Allergy, ISSN: 0105-4538 -
Journal articleChen J, Toumi R, Zhang L, et al., 2025,
Radial rainfall pattern changes of intense over‐ocean tropical cyclones under global warming: insights from an MRI HighRes CMIP6 simulation
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 52, ISSN: 0094-8276Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall is an important hazard. Radial rainfall patterns of intense over‐ocean TCs under global warming are investigated using the MRI HighRes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulation with the SSP5‐8.5 high‐emission scenario. These patterns are characterized by four parameters: rainfall at the cyclone center (To), maximum rainfall (Tm), radius of maximum rainfall (Rm), and e‐folding radius (Re). We find Tm strongly correlates (r = 0.8) with a moisture convergence proxy—boundary‐layer maximum wind times column moisture divided by the radius of maximum wind—across differentintensities and under climate change. Under warming, mean Tm and To increase by 8.65%/K and 8.86%/K, while Rm and Re shrink by 1.03%/K and 1.79%/K, respectively. Notably, under warming, Tm exhibits greater sensitivity to TC intensity, and its increases are mainly attributed to column moisture increase.
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Journal articleFu H, Cenedese C, Lefauve A, et al., 2025,
A laboratory analogy for mixing by shallow cumulus convection
, JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 1011, ISSN: 0022-1120- Cite
- Citations: 1
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ReportInstitute G, 2025,
Exploring research priorities for the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report
, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Imperial College LondonFollowing the IPCC approval of the outlines for its three Working Group contributions to the Seventh Assessment cycle, the Grantham Institute hosted a day-long event bringing together experts from across the UK climate research community to discuss the Working Group outlines and explore research priorities to strengthen and support the IPCC assessment. This report aims to signpost some key areas that would benefit from further research to deliver robust IPCC assessment findings.
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Journal articleLi S, Huang Z, Li Y, et al., 2025,
Methodology for predicting material performance by context-based modeling: A case study on solid amine CO2 adsorbents
, Energy and AI, Vol: 20Traditional materials informatics leverages big data and machine learning (ML) to forecast material performance based on structural features but often overlooks valuable textual information. In this work, we proposed a novel methodology for predicting material performance through context-based modeling using large language models (LLMs). This method integrates both numerical and textual information, enhancing predictive accuracy and scalability. In the case study, the approach is applied to predict the performance of solid amine CO<inf>2</inf> adsorbents under direct air capture (DAC) conditions. ChatGPT 4o model was used to employ in-context learning to predict CO<inf>2</inf> adsorption uptake based on input features, including material properties and experimental conditions. The results show that context-based modeling can reduce prediction error in comparison to traditional ML models in the prediction task. We adopted Sapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to further elucidate the importance of various input features. This work highlights the potential of LLMs in materials science, offering a cost-effective, efficient solution for complex predictive tasks.
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Journal articleRai U, Chen J, Oluleye G, et al., 2025,
Stochastic optimisation model to optimise the contractual generation capacity of a battery-integrated distributed energy resource in a balancing services contract
, Energy, Vol: 322, ISSN: 0360-5442Popular heuristic approaches applied by demand response aggregators often use conservative tactics and may fall short of the contractual generation capacity of a distributed energy resource (DER) allocation in a balancing services (BS) contract. Hence, the possibility of optimising revenue remains generally unexplored. This research presents a novel framework for aggregators by employing a two-stage stochastic mixed integer nonlinear programming model to tackle site electricity demand unpredictability and the uncertainty of short-term operating reserve (STOR) calls to find the optimal generation capacity of a diesel generator (DG) to contract in STOR service. In the first stage, K-means clustering for innovative segmentation and rigorously categorising half-hourly site electricity demand data into optimal demand bins is employed. In the second stage, the model integrates a behind-the-meter battery energy storage system (BESS) to enhance performance and evaluate scenarios with and without BESS. Additionally, the study evaluates the effects of varying BESS capacities to enhance the contractual capacity of the DG, resulting in significantly improved revenue. A rigorous sensitivity analysis of penalty cost, utilization payment, and storage capacity ensures the robustness of the model across varied conditions. Results show the site revenue increases between 7.91 % and 20.27 % compared to the deterministic MIQCP approach previously employed.
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Journal articleChen A, Wang J, Toumi R, et al., 2025,
Impact of tropical cyclone precipitation on fluvial discharge in the Lancang‒Mekong river basin
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 52, ISSN: 0094-8276Tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) and associated floods have caused widespread damage globally. Despite growing evidence of significant changes in the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in recent decades, the influence of TCs on regional flooding remains poorly understood. Here, we distinguish the role of TCs in fluvial discharge by explicitly simulating discharge with and without observed TCP in the Lancang‒Mekong River Basin, a vulnerable TC hotspot. Our results show that TCs typically contributed approximately 30% of annual maximum discharge during 1967–2015. However, for rare and high-magnitude floods (long return periods), TCs are the dominant driver of extreme discharge events. Moreover, spatial changes in TC-induced discharge are closely related to changes in TCP and TC tracks, showing increasing trends upstream but decreasing trends downstream. This study reveals significant spatiotemporal differences in TC-induced discharges and provides a methodology for quantifying the role of TCs in fluvial discharge.
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OtherLinden P, Atoufi A, Lefauve A, et al., 2025,
Hydraulic control, turbulence and mixing in stratified buoyancy-driven exchange flows
<jats:p>Buoyancy-driven exchange flows in geophysical contexts, such as flows through straits, often create a partially-mixed intermediate layer through mixing between the two stratified counterflowing turbulent layers. We present a three-layer hydraulic analysis of such flows, highlighting the dynamical importance of the intermediate layer. Our model is based on the viscous, shallow water, Boussinesq equations and includes the effects of mixing as a non-hydrostatic pressure forcing. We apply this shallow-water formulation to direct numerical simulations of stratified inclined duct (SID) exchange flows where turbulence is controlled by a modest slope of the duct. We show that the nonlinear characteristics of the three-layer model correspond to linear long waves perturbing the three-layer mean flow, and predict, in agreement with recent experimental observations in SID, hydraulically-controlled regions in the middle of the duct, linked to the onset of instability and turbulence. We also provide the first evidence of long-wave resonance, as well as resonance between long and short waves, and their connection to transitions from intermittent to fully developed turbulence. These results challenge current parameterisations for turbulent transport in stratified exchange flows, which typically overlook long waves and internal hydraulics induced by streamwise variations of the flow.</jats:p>
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OtherLefauve A, Bassett C, Plotnick D, et al., 2025,
The structure of stratified mixing by shear instability in baroclinically forced shear flows
<jats:p>We present observational data from the mouth of the Connecticut River, a shallow salt-wedge estuary characterised by intense interfacial mixing. The motivation is to better understand, and ultimately predict, density-stratified turbulent mixing driven by shear instabilities at high Reynolds numbers (Re > 10^5). Such processes span an immense turbulent energy cascade across eight orders of magnitude, from coherent instabilities at kilometre scales to the smallest mixing eddies at micrometre scales. Using multi-beam echo-sounding imagery, we reveal the spatial structure and temporal evolution of turbulent mixing with unprecedented detail. During the flood tide, large-scale topography and hydraulics cause the pycnocline to slope, which triggers, through baroclinic forcing, primary shear instabilities in the form of long trains of Kelvin-Helmholtz billows. Our data demonstrate that at Re ~ 5x10^5, mixing occurs primarily by turbulence in the braids connecting the cores of the billows rather than within the cores themselves. This secondary 'braid turbulence' is continuously forced by the secondary baroclinic generation of shear within the sloping braids. This finding challenges the prevailing paradigm built upon direct numerical simulations (DNS) at lower Reynolds numbers (Re ~ 10^3-10^4), where mixing is thought to occur primarily by overturning in the billow cores. This distinction is a significant shift in understanding the high-Re turbulent cascade in mixing hotspots, with potential implications for mixing parameterisations in the coastal ocean.</jats:p>
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OtherTheokritoff E, Sparks N, Otto F, et al., 2025,
Building a global and rapid event impact attribution framework
<jats:p>While event attribution has made considerable progress in the last two decades, event impact attribution, which calculates the attributable share of impacts from extreme weather events, remains challenging. Impacts result from the interaction between the intensity of hazards, the exposure of affected areas and the vulnerability of individuals, infrastructures and the environment. Across different types of extreme weather events, impacts and world regions, a wide range of datasets and approaches need to be considered to tackle this complex and interdisciplinary field of research.Here, we aim to develop simple methods that can be deployed rapidly and globally to estimate attributable impacts in the aftermath of extreme weather events. We will present initial work on attributing direct economic impacts from tropical cyclones and on an updated global physical asset database used in this context.This initiative produces near-real-time results that can be communicated in a timely manner to a broad audience, raising awareness about the impacts of extreme weather and the role of climate change. It ultimately seeks to provide valuable information on losses and damages and levels of adaptation, which can be instrumental for policymaking, climate justice and preparing societies for future extremes.</jats:p>
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